Transcript Slide 1

The Environment Institute
Where ideas grow
This world’s water
- have we got enough?
Mike Young
Executive Director, The Environment Institute
The Environment Institute
Global water?
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Energy
Health
Climate change
Supply
People
Challenges
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Energy
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World
Primary
Energy
The
Environment
Institute
Australia
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Where could we go?
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Technology cost comparisons – should nuclear be part of the mix?
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Nicholson, Biegler & Brook (2010)
“How carbon pricing changes the relative
competitiveness of low-carbon baseload
generating technologies”
Energy doi: 10.1016/j.energy.2010.10.039
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Australian Greenhouse Gas Emissions
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Water
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Health
• 3,900 children under 5 die every day from
water supply & sanitation related diseases
• MDG to halve the number people without
access to drinking water and sanitation by
2015
– Drinking water goal expected to be met
– Sanitation goal will not be met
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MDG Sanitation Target Progress
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Global flow and use
70% Agriculture, 20% Industry & 10% Urban
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After Molden 2007
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Global water scarcity
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After Molden 2007
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International Trade
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After Hoekstar & Chapagain 2007
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Causes increasing water scarcity
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Adverse climate change
Population increase
Increased living standards
Over-exploitation
Declining water quality
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Threats to Biodiversity and Water
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Climate
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Getting hotter
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Has been getting drier in south & east
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PERTH
Rainfall for Jarrahdale
2000
14% less
Rainfall (m m )
1500
20%
less
- 1%
1000
500
2004
2001
1998
1995
1992
1989
1986
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1980
1977
1974
1971
1968
1965
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1929
1926
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0
1000
S tre a m in flo w fo r P e rth d a m s (P rio r to S tirlin g D a m )
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4 8 % le s s
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66%
le s s
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- 3%
N o te s : S tre a m flo w is fro m Ma y o f la b e lle d ye a r to th e fo llo w in g Ap ril
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2004
2001
1998
1995
1992
1989
1986
1983
1980
1977
1974
1971
1968
1965
1962
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1956
1953
1950
1947
1944
1941
1938
1935
1932
1929
1926
1923
1920
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0
1914
100
1911
S tr e a m flo w (G L )
800
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With half as much water, how much can you use?
Users
Users
Users
Environment
Environment
Environment
River Flow
River Flow
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River Flow
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Global impacts of climate change
• Some areas get wetter and warmer
• Some areas get drier and warmer
• The aggregate affect of climate change on
water supplies is expected to be negative.
– By 2030 child malnutrition is predicted to
increase by 20%.
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People
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World Population
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One more Australian every 1 minute 18 seconds
Source: ABS, 2008
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An emerging gap
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Water scarcity gap –
billions m3
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After 2030 Water Resources Group
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MENA = Middle East & Northern Africa
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Water
stressed
people
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After OECD 2009
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The reality
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Failure to provide reliable access to water and sanitation services
is one of humankind’s greatest failings.
By 2030, over half the world’s population is expected to be living
in a water stressed region.
Demand is growing and supply costs are rising.
Health and quality of many rivers and aquifers is declining.
Restoration is a non-trivial challenge!
The aggregate affect of climate change on water supplies is
expected to be negative.
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By 2030 child malnutrition is predicted to increase by 20%.
The rate of change necessary to close the gap is an order of
magnitude faster than has been achieved in recent times.
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Avoiding the crisis
1. Parallel investments in governance, the development
of taxation systems, the removal of market distortions
and freer trading arrangements for agricultural
products.
2. Freer international trading arrangements will
significantly reduce the costs of facilitating
adjustment and attaining MDG targets.
3. The early introduction of greenhouse gas trading or
taxation arrangements will reduce the costs of
achieving a transition
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{Gravity is cheap.}
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Pricing arrangements
1. In India, 15% of food is produced from
subsidised groundwater depletion.
– Subsidies need to be phased out.
2. In many cases, the poorest of the poor would
be better off paying the full cost of supply
– The cost of obtaining access to water from other
sources a central source and the impact of
unsanitary conditions on them is enormous.
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Governance
Corruption has been estimated to be raising
the cost of achieving the MDG by $50 billion
per year
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Financing investment (3 T’s)
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After Marin and OECD 2009
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Seven global observations
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When water is mismanaged, economic growth and development is inordinately difficult.
Globally, there appears to be under-investment in water.
When accelerated investment is coupled with improvements in governance and water
policies, the amount that needs to be invested in the water can be reduced significantly.
For many people, the lack of access to reliable clean water and adequate sanitation
services means that these people cannot participate in a green economy.
Investment in the development of water entitlement and allocation systems designed to
both ensure the maintenance of biodiversity and ecosystem services and, also, to facilitate
adjustment in the way water resources are used can be expected to pay long-term
dividends.
The cost of resolving the constellation of water scarcity crises emerging around the world
depends upon the extent of commitment to water policy reform and the development of
improved governance arrangements.
The resolution of global water supply problems is heavily dependent upon the degree to
which agricultural water use can be improved
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