Transcript Bild 1 - Baltic University Programme

Climate change and the
challenges for the Baltic
Sea region
BUP Students Conference, 12-16
November 2008, Szczecin, Poland
Christine Jakobsson
Director of the Baltic University
Programme
Uppsala University
A Summary of Our Global Situation
“Things are getting better and better
and worse and worse
faster and faster.”
– Tom Atlee
AtKisson 2008
The Millennium Development Goals (2005)
Eradicate extreme
poverty and hunger
Primary education
Women’s equality
and empowerment
Reduce child
mortality
Maternal health
Combat HIV/AIDS,
malaria, etc.
Environmental
sustainability
The UN Millennium Development Goals - 2007
Eradicate extreme
poverty and hunger
Primary education
Women’s equality
and empowerment
Reduce child
mortality
Maternal health
Combat HIV/AIDS,
malaria, etc.
Environmental
sustainability
Global partnership
for development
The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment
Nature
converted
to human
use (%)
Remaining
natural
systems
AtKisson 2008
A Global Transition is Happening
... Faster than We Understand
2050
?
2050
2050
2020
2007
1960
1900
1000 AD
2000
AtKisson 2008
Something else is happening
much faster than we understand
Arctic Sea Ice 2007
Source: National Snow and Ice Data Center
AtKisson 2008
A Global Transition is Happening
... Faster than We Can Understand
Source: International Geosphere-Biosphere Program
Exponential Growth Against Firm Limits Has
Just Two Possible Outcomes
1. Overshoot and
Collapse
AtKisson 2008
Tipping Point is no longer just a clever phrase to
describe social trends
Twelve Possible “Tipping Points” - Where
Thresholds are in Sight
1. Amazon Rainforest
2. North Atlantic Current
3. Greenland Ice Sheet
4. Ozone Hole
5. Antarctic Circumpolar Current
6. Sahara Desert
7. Tibetan Plateau
8. Asian Monsoon
9. Methane Clathrates
10. Salinity Valves
11. El Nino
12. West Antarctic Ice Sheet
AtKisson 2008
Exponential Growth Against Firm Limits Has
Just Two Possible Outcomes
2. Dynamic Equilibrium
which is
another word
for …
AtKisson 2008
Too much
Sustainability
Just enough
Not enough
AtKisson 2008
IPCC
•
The IPCC: established in 1988 by WMO & UNEP to
assess scientific, technical & socio- economic
information to understand climate change, its
potential impacts & options for adaptation &
mitigation.
•
The IPCC does not carry out research nor does it
monitor climate related data or other relevant
parameters. It bases its assessment mainly on peer
reviewed and published scientific/technical
literature.
IPCC
• Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
protocol, Climate Change 2007:
– WG 1. The Physical Science Basis, 2 Febr. 2007
– WG 2. "Impacts, Adaptation & Vulnerability”, 6
April 2007
– WG 3. "Mitigation of Climate Change", 4 May
2007
– "Climate Change 2007" - the IPCC Fourth
Assessment Report (AR4), Valencia, Spain, on 17
November 2007
Fourth Assessment Report (AR4)
Process
• +2500 scientific expert reviewers
• 800 contributing authors
• 450 lead authors from
• +130 countries
Dr. R K Pachauri
Chairman
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
Warming of the
climate system
is unequivocal
• Increasing global
air & ocean
temperatures
• Rising global
average sea level
• Reductions of
snow and ice
Extreme Events
• The frequency of heavy precipitation events has increased over
most areas
• From 1900 to 2005, precipitation increased significantly in
eastern parts of North and South America, northern Europe and
northern and central Asia but declined in the Sahel, the
Mediterranean, southern Africa and parts of southern Asia
• Globally, the area affected by drought has likely increased since
the 1970s
• There is now higher confidence than in the TAR in projected
patterns of warming and other regional-scale features, including
changes in wind patterns, precipitation, and some aspects of
extremes and sea ice
Increasing Sea Level Rise
• Rate of global average sea level rise has risen
from 1.8mm/yr to 3.1mm/yr from 1961 to
1993
• The reasons for sea level rise has been due
to thermal expansion, melting glaciers & ice
caps and the polar ice sheets
• Projected sea level rise at the end of the 21st
Century will be 18-59 cm
Anthropogenic warming would lead to some impacts
that are abrupt or irreversible
• Partial loss of ice sheets on ice polar land could imply:
– metres of sea level rise
– Major changes in coastlines and inundation of low-lying areas
– Great effects in river deltas and low-lying islands
• Approximately 20-30% of species assessed so far are likely
to be at increased risk of extinction
• Large scale and persistent changes in Meridional Overturning
Circulation (MOC) will have impacts on marine ecosystem
productively, fisheries, ocean CO2 uptake and terrestrial
vegetation
Solutions
• A wide variety of policies and instruments are available to
governments to create the incentives for mitigation
action.
• Stabilisation levels assessed can be achieved by
deployment of a portfolio of technologies that are either
currently available or expected to be commercialised in
coming decades.
• An effective carbon-price signal could realise significant
mitigation potential in all sectors.
INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC)
Vision of UN Secretary-General on
Climate Change
• “Climate change is a serious threat to development
everywhere”
• “Today, the time for doubt has passed. The IPCC
has unequivocally affirmed the warming of our
climate system, and linked it directly to human
activity”
• “Slowing or even reversing the existing trends of
global warming is the defining challenge of our ages”
• “Galvanising international action on global warming
as one of main priorities as Secretary General”
Conclusions from Stern analysis
Unless emissions are curbed, climate change will bring high costs
for human development, economies and the environment
–Concentrations of 550ppm CO2e and above are associated with
very high risks of serious economic impacts
–Concentrations of 450ppm CO2e and below will be extremely
difficult to achieve given where we are now and given current and
foreseeable technology
Limiting concentrations within this range is possible. The costs are
modest relative to the costs of inaction.
Decisive and strong international action is urgent: delay means
greater risks and higher costs
European agreement on a new energy policy
• Brussels EUROPEAN COUNCIL, Spring 2007: EU is taking the lead
in the fight against global warming. Presidency Conclusions.
• EU leaders set a firm target of cutting 20% of the EU’s
greenhouse gas emissions by 2020
• EU will be willing to put this goal up to 30% if the US, China &
India make similar commitments.
• EU leaders also set a binding overall goal of 20% for renewable
energy sources by 2020, compared to the present 6,5%.
A binding minimum target of 10% for the share of biofuels in
overall transport petrol and diesel consumption by 2020 was
also set.
"We can say to the rest of the world - Europe is taking the lead.
You should join us in fighting climate change", José Barroso
“Climate action & renewable energy package":
EC’s legislative proposal to achieve agreed EU
objectives in the fight against climate change
• an improved emissions trading system (ETS) covering more emissions and
allowing firms in one EU country to buy allowances in any other
• an emission reduction target for industries not covered by the ETS (e.g.
buildings, transport, waste) so that everyone is contributing
• legally enforceable targets for increasing the share of renewables in the
energy mix – the targets will reflect each country's individual needs and its
potential
• new rules on carbon capture and storage and on environmental subsidies.
• Last March, EU leaders endorsed commission proposals to cut CO2
emissions by at least 20% by 2020 (30% if global targets can be agreed on)
and to set a binding 20% target for the use of renewable energy sources.
The overall goal is to cap global temperature increases at 2°C.
• The proposals aim at a more environment-friendly Europe. But they will
also help create a more industry-friendly, jobs-friendly, and consumerfriendly EU.
• The commission hopes to see the package adopted by the end of 2008.
• Emmission trading system will also apply to aircrafts from 2011.
Swedish governments 3 climate initiatives
• Commission for sustainable development
• Scientific council for climate issues
• Parliamentarian working committee
Sweden has reduced emissions of greenhouse gases > 40% since 1970:ies
1990-2005: reduced GHG emissions >7% & growth has increased with 36%
Climate political bill in 2008. Sweden will take a leading role in international
negotiations
Next large UN climate meeting after Kyoto will be in Denmark 2009.
Sweden has climate change as a priority for their chairmanship of the EU in
2009.
Road to Copenhagen
MARY ROBINSON & MARGOT WALLSTROM
• Daily choices & outspoken demands on companies and politicians
globally will decide how our climate fares.
• WE HAVE about 2,850 days, or 97 months, to save the planet. That
is when, according to "doomsday climate experts", we will go
beyond the climate's "tipping point". A point where it is no longer
likely that we will stay below the 2C temperature rise threshold.
giving as many people, business groups and civil society groups as
possible a voice in the negotiations on a post-Kyoto agreement.
• Road to Copenhagen is a joint initiative: Club of Madrid, Globe
Europe &Respect Table. It brings together people from all walks of
life who believe that change and a sustainable world is possible. It is
web-based and interactive, and open to everyone to engage and
discuss directly with politicians, non-governmental organisations
and progressive business.
Obama and Biden USA
Reduce our Greenhouse Gas
Emissions 80 Percent by 2050
Implement an economy-wide cap-and-trade program to
reduce greenhouse gas emissions 80 percent by 2050.
• The Obama-Biden cap-and-trade policy will require all
pollution credits to be auctioned, and proceeds will go to
investments in a clean energy future, habitat protections,
and rebates and other transition relief for families.
Make the U.S. a Leader on Climate Change.
• Obama and Biden will re-engage with the U.N. Framework
Convention on Climate Change (UNFCC) -- the main
international forum dedicated to addressing the climate
problem. They will also create a Global Energy Forum of the
world’s largest emitters to focus exclusively on global
energy and environmental issues.
Obama and Biden USA
Eliminate Our Current Imports from the Middle
East and Venezuela within 10 Years
Increase Fuel Economy Standards.
• Obama and Biden will increase fuel economy standards 4 percent per year while
providing $4 billion for domestic automakers to retool their manufacturing facilities in
America to produce these vehicles.
Get 1 Million Plug-In Hybrid Cars on the Road by 2015.
• These vehicles can get up to 150 miles per gallon. Barack Obama and Joe Biden believe
we should work to ensure these cars are built here in America, instead of factories
overseas.
Create a New $7,000 Tax Credit for Purchasing Advanced Vehicles.
Establish a National Low Carbon Fuel Standard.
• Obama and Biden will establish a National Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) to reduce
the carbon in our fuels 10 percent by 2020. Obama and Biden will also require 60 billion
gallons of advanced biofuels to be phased into our fuel supply by 2030.
A “Use it or Lose It” Approach to Existing Oil and Gas Leases.
• Obama and Biden will require oil companies to develop the 68 million acres of land
(over 40 million of which are offshore) which they have already leased and are not
drilling on.
Promote the Responsible Domestic Production of Oil and Natural Gas.
• An Obama-Biden administration will establish a process for early identification of any
infrastructure obstacles/shortages or possible federal permitting process delays to
drilling in the Bakken Shale formation, the Barnett shale formation, and the National
Petroleum Reserve-Alaska
The Hope Graph
Transformation
Point
A Symbolic Representation
Objective:
Poverty gap
Innovation
Pollution
Destruction of
natural habitat
Strive to
PUSH
this point
forward and up
Empowerment
... implement
Sustainability
FASTER ...
Renewables
Fossil fuel use
Conservation
Unsustainable
Technologies
& Practices
1880
The Time
of
Our Lives
Awareness
Sustainable
Technologies
& Practices
1920
1960
2000
... and REDUCE
the amount of
loss and damage
2040
AtKisson 2008
Thank you for your
attention and interest!
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