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Denise J. Reed University of New Orleans Robert R. Twilley Louisiana State University CLIMATE CHANGE Storms Waves Sea Level Temperature CO2 conc. Run-off External Marine Influences Human Natural Sub-system Sub-system Coastal System External Terrestrial Influences IPCC 2007 Thanks to Brendan Yuill, University of Current climate varies across the area – especially in terms of precipitation Global increase in temperatures in the future - range associated with variations among models and uncertainty regarding future development Effects of inland changes are felt at the coast through change in runoff Variation across the Gulf Coast and throughout the year Precipitation is more variable globally Precipitation predictions show increase and decrease Gulf Coast Average Dec, Jan, Feb June, July, Aug Annual Precipitation (in) 2000 11.7 11.5 48.2 Nueces Dec, Jan, Feb June, July, Aug Annual 4.4 6.7 26.7 -0.5 13.6 0.8 -15.3 11.3 -3.8 Trinity Dec, Jan, Feb June, July, Aug Annual 11.9 9.2 47.3 0.3 16.5 -3.1 -5.4 13.1 -3.5 Mobile Dec, Jan, Feb June, July, Aug Annual 16.8 13.0 57.2 -2.5 3.9 -0.6 -4.6 11.7 3.0 Location Period % Change (from 2000) 2050 -2.2 9.9 -1.6 2099 -8.3 10.4 -2.1 Runoff (in) Gulf Coast Avg. Nueces River, TX Trinity River, TX Mobile River, AL % Change (from 2000) 2000 2050 2099 - -20 -29 1.0 0 -3 6.4 -27 -37 20.2 -11 -14 River runoff likely decreases in the future due change in precipitation and increased temperatures that increase evapotranspiration SLR Length of Record in/yr yrs Dauphin Island, AL 0.12 32 Grand Isle, LA 0.39 53 Eugene Island, LA 0.38 36 Sabine Pass, TX 0.26 42 Galveston I, TX 0.26 92 Galveston II, TX 0.29 43 Freeport, TX 0.23 46 Rockport, TX 0.18 52 Port Mansfield, TX 0.08 35 Padre Island, TX 0.14 37 Port Isabel, TX 0.13 56 Station Name Relative sea level rise is already a problem based on 20th century data Historical rates Historical with eustatic increased to 0.12 in/yr (3mm/yr) Historical with eustatic increased to 0.20 in/yr (5mm/yr) by 2099 Historical with eustatic increased to 0.43 in/yr (11mm/yr) by 2099 (estimated max. rate from last deglaciation) Summary Regional mean annual temperatures will increase by over 1° C by 2050 and near a 3° C increase by 2099 - increase only varying spatially by approximately 0.1° C. Precipitation will likely become more seasonal - summer months will receive a higher % of the rainfall, winter months will receive less. The effect of climate change on runoff is uncertain, suggestion that the total amount of runoff will be significantly altered. Sea-level rise will vary spatially - rates higher than the global mean due to the active subsidence processes. Range ~8 in to ~5 ft by 2099. Climate change will likely cause an increase in the % of storms that develop into large hurricanes and an increase in overall storm intensity => increase the threat of flooding and storm related damage to coastal communities and infrastructure.