Transcript Transport - mitigation and adaptation

TRANSPORT –
MITIGATION AND ADAPTATION
Tamás Fleischer
Institute for World Economics of the Hungarian
Academy of Sciences
http://www.vki.hu/~tfleisch/
[email protected]
Climate Change 2007: Implications for Hungary
AR4 – key insights – an IPCC Outreach Event
Central European University,
Budapest, April 10-11, 2008
Transport – mitigation and adaptation
 Mitigation:
decreasing the emissions (decreasing the driving forces of
the climate change). It suppose known reasons, known
relations, known target
 Adaptation:
 posterior adaptation: reaction to changes already
happened
 preventive adaptation: to improve capability of resistance
/ of survival of future changes
 flexibility, buffers, reserves, redundancies, diversity,
 Characteristics that are not „efficient” or „uniform” or
„optimal” etc.
 („Post-modern” versus „modern” values)
Mitigation and adaptation
Source: Climate Change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. IPCC TAR Vol II.
indirect source: Smit et al 1999.
Mitigation and adaptation as policy answers
Usual (also IPCC) mitigation approach
 The myth of the negative feedback loop
(transport) sector
emissions
technology
Expectation: the more technology, the less emission / CC
 Experience: the more technology – increasing emission
 Behaves rather like a positive feedback loop
Usual (also IPCC) mitigation approach
 „Fuel economy regulations have been effective in slowing
the growth of GHG emissions, but so far growth of
transport activity has overwhelmed their impact.” (AR4)
 What happened?
 Misleading message to the user: „technology can solve the
problem, you don’t have to change anything”
 Transport:
target: to gain time => higher speed => no time gain, but
bigger distance covered => (+higher emission)
 The cumulated social result differs from the direct one
IPCC mitigation approach
 The non-technical solutions
(transport) sector
emissions
regulations, prices,
emissions trade etc.
 From the point of view of the sector: this is a change of the
external conditions – that is an adaptation enforcement, not
„mitigation”
IPCC mitigation approach
 The non-technical solutions
(transport)
sector
(transport) sector
emissions
regulations, prices,
emissions trade etc.
 From the point of view of the sector: this is a change of the
external conditions – that is an adaptation enforcement, not
„mitigation” (Adaptation to new regulatory environment)
IPCC mitigation approach
 The non-technical solutions
(transport)
sector
(transport) sector
emissions
regulations, prices,
emissions trade etc.
 From the point of view of the sector: this is a change of the
external conditions – that is an adaptation enforcement, not
„mitigation” (Adaptation to new regulatory environment)
 How to make the feedback even more back to policy level?
IPCC four basic storylines or scenario families
IPCC scenarios
1
A
B
2
 2000 Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES)
IPCC scenarios
1
Global,
converged,
connected
world
A
B
2
Local, fragmented,
regional world
 2000 Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES)
IPCC scenarios
1
Global,
converged,
connected
world
Economic
priority,
efficiency, A
market
based world,
competition
B
2
Environment,
equity,
participative
decisions,
co-operation
Local, fragmented,
regional world
 2000 Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES)
IPCC scenarios
1
market
global
A
B
2
co-operation
regional
 2000 Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES)
IPCC scenarios
A1 ‘global market’
no state intervention,
global competition,
capital concentration,
TNCs, polarised world,
technology development
market
1
global
A
B
2
co-operation
regional
 2000 Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES)
IPCC scenarios
A1 ‘global market’
no state intervention,
global competition,
capital concentration,
TNCs, polarised world,
technology development
market
1
global
A
B1 ‘global co-operation’
social and environmental factors
are important, global equity,
global redistribution, world
government, centralised lead of
environment oriented and
technical development [WEU]
B
2
co-operation
regional
 2000 Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES)
IPCC scenarios
A1 ‘global market’
no state intervention,
global competition,
capital concentration,
TNCs, polarised world,
technology development
market
1
global
A
B1 ‘global co-operation’
social and environmental factors
are important, global equity,
global redistribution, world
government, centralised lead of
environment oriented and
technical development [WEU]
B
co-operation
A2 ‘regional market’
protectionist, anti-global
system of efficient local
markets, based on limited
range TNCs rather than states
good local connections
2
regional
 2000 Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES)
IPCC scenarios
A1 ‘global market’
no state intervention,
global competition,
capital concentration,
TNCs, polarised world,
technology development
market
1
A
global
B1 ‘global co-operation’
social and environmental factors
are important, global equity,
global redistribution, world
government, centralised lead of
environment oriented and
technical development [WEU]
B
A2 ‘regional market’
protectionist, anti-global
system of efficient local
markets, based on limited
range TNCs rather than states
good local connections
2
co-operation
B2 ‘regional co-operation’
intra-regional redistribution,
equity and environment-friendly
development directed by regional
institutions, Harmony with SD
principles: regional production,
-trade, -employment; regional
regional institutions and -governance.
 2000 Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES)
Transport scenarios (for Hungary) fitted
A1 ‘global market’
1
sustainability targets subordinated to
efficiency, priority to supply side
infrastructure of road transport, sever
profitability criteria for public transport,
decreasing service level in space and time,
transport policy determined by lobby groups
market
global
A
B
2
co-operation
regional
 2005 Background paper to Hungarian Sustainability Strategy
Transport scenarios (for Hungary) fitted
A1 ‘global market’
1
sustainability targets subordinated to
efficiency, priority to supply side
infrastructure of road transport, sever
profitability criteria for public transport,
decreasing service level in space and time,
transport policy determined by lobby groups
market
A
global
B
2
co-operation
B2 ‘regional co-operation’
integrated urban, spatial and
transport policy, integrated
modal policy, innovative local
shuttle services, priority to PT,
congestion price, local calming,
in rural areas integrated goods
regional and passenger transport
 2005 Background paper to Hungarian Sustainability Strategy
Transport scenarios (for Hungary) fitted
A1 ‘global market’
1
sustainability targets subordinated to
efficiency, priority to supply side
infrastructure of road transport, sever
profitability criteria for public transport,
decreasing service level in space and time,
transport policy determined by lobby groups
market
A
global
B1 ‘global co-operation’
top-down elaborated
legal and institutional changes,
support sustainable scenarios
at national and international
level, eliminate regional
inequalities
B
A2 ‘regional market’
2
co-operation
B2 ‘regional co-operation’
integrated urban, spatial and
transport policy, integrated
modal policy, innovative local
shuttle services, priority to PT,
congestion price, local calming,
in rural areas integrated goods
regional and passenger transport
 2005 Background paper to Hungarian Sustainability Strategy
Transport – mitigation and adaptation
 While technology is very important to promote mitigation, without a
proper wider context it may lead to more emissions instead of less.
 The adaptation scenario is not just necessary, but also represent a
different and multidimensional approach of risk management
 From the IPCC scenarios ‘B2’ and „B1” dispose of values fitting
pro-sustainability, and can present a multi-dimensional world
 B1 ‘global co-operation’ scenario shows a kind of „world-wide
union” approach for a global, bureaucratic, centrally governed cooperation – somewhat contradicting to certain values of
sustainability
 B2 ‘regional co-operation’ scenario is a regionally organised world
with strong internal connections within the single unites and
secondary connections between those unites. This form of
governance seems to fit best to sustainability principles, while more
moderated in globalisation
TRANSPORT –
MITIGATION AND ADAPTATION
Tamás Fleischer
Institute for World Economics
of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences
http://www.vki.hu/~tfleisch/
[email protected]
THANKS FOR YOUR
KIND ATTENTION !
Climate Change 2007: Implications for Hungary
AR4 – key insights – an IPCC Outreach Event
Central European University,
Budapest, April 10-11, 2008