Transcript Slide 1

Global Security and Complexity
Peter Hayes
Professor, International Relations, Nautilus-RMIT
Nautilus Institute for Security and Sustainability, USA
www.nautilus.org
Seoul
October 18, 2010
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Global Security:
1st half of 20th Century Fluidly Simple
• State-based security
• Classic Realist Balance of power politics
• Two world wars
• Anti-colonial wars to establish new states
or reinstate pre-colonial states or empires
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Global Security:
2nd Half of 20th Century Rigid Simplicity
• Cold War for 4 decades
• Bipolar structure covering entire planet
• Blocs and Alliances
• Balance of terror
• Spheres of influence
• Non-aligned states
• Contested zones (Korea)
• Wars of national liberation
• Very predictable…until the Soviet Union fell apart
• Bipolar system reconstituted around American
hegemony for 10 years when the world spun apart
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CC Adaptation:
Reminder--Complex Systems
• Local processes may govern transitions of the
state of the whole system due to dependence
on the initial conditions or what is known
intuitively as the “butterfly effect.”
• Due to their non-linearity, the effects of these
interacting processes across scales, including
positive and negative feedbacks, are
inherently unpredictable.
21st Century: Global Security Increasing Complexity – 13 dimensions
Source: http://www.watsoninstitute.org/globalsecuritymatrix
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Global + Resource Conflict
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Global + Warfare
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Outside-In Approach:
Wicked
WMD-Insecurity Complex
16 Part Global Problem
Outside-In Approach:
Wicked
WMD Insecurity
Complex
20 Part Global Solution
Perkovich et al, 2006
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Shift from Simple to Complex Security
State -> {State + Market + Civil Society}
State (military) -> {State + Military + Human +
Ecological Security}
Political -> {Political + Legal + Institutional
Security}
National -> {National + Local + Global +
Individuals + Glocal + Networked Security}
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Simple to Complex Global Problem-Solving
Shift from
Singular, sequential problem-solving
to
Multiple, simultaneous problem-solving
For example
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Outside-In Approach: “Sustainable Security”
Conclusion (p. 29)
Five macro-drivers of instability
worsen each other and require
simultaneous and integrated
solutions
Source: Oxford Research Group,
June 2006
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Holdren: reduces this complexity to nexus:
“energy-economy-environment dilemma”
Pollution, Environmental
Stress
Nuclear Proliferation
Climate
Change
Climate
Change
Energy
Poverty
Development
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Global Problem-Solving Failures and Strategies
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Global Gridlock
International treaties (too slow, too ritualistic)
International regimes (non-binding, no enforcement)
Mega-conferences (respond to cumulative failure to solve urgent problems, LCD
consensus, dissensus, no followup)
G7-8, 20 type groupings (process failures, not inclusive, disconnected from
market and CS knowledge, vertical and time distance
40 global “multilateral” IGOs (constrained by paymasters, small funding,
scapegoated)
Global Solutions
World Government: distill all the above into global gridlock; great powers
dominant and entrenched
or
Networked governance (multisectoral, global issue, norm-based networks, fast,
legitimate, cross-border, inclusive of diversity, internet-based + G20 specialized
inter-governmental initiatives
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Genesis of Modern Traditional Think Tanks
(Rand, Hudson, IDA, CNA...)
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academic
contract research
advocacy
party-affiliated
“Keep an eye on those two.”
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States Cram Complexity into a
Few Bureaucratic Boxes
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Enabling conditions:
Internet + globalization
Transnational Think Nets
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Types
global public policy networks
single issue global social movements
diasporic networks
transecting transnational networks
Characteristics
Multi-sectoral
Cross-issues (multi-dimensional)
Diasporic
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Key Concepts for
Transnational Think Nets
• the information milieu of the global public sphere is
the critical domain for policy articulation and
implementation
• because it contains the common knowledge and
shared reference points that are critical to successful
negotiation
• seek to identify natural affines that share weak links
• solution to the “small worlds” problem
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INFOAXIOM 2
www.infoaxioms.org
Common Knowledge and Networks
Speed of diffusion varies by weak-strong links (less
processing, less distance, fastest communication in weakly
coupled networks)
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Transnational Think-Nets
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communicate across borders and behind the scenes
speak truth to power
top quality information and analysis
Informational and analytic timeliness, accuracy,
insight (especially early warning of pending events,
emerging issues, or anomalies in conventional
perspectives
• connectivity to networked policymakers.
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