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How to value ecosystem goods and services in agriculture at increasing land use pressure ? Katarina Hedlund Lund university, Sweden Proyeksi Guna-Lahan 1. Production of goods is increasing Food, biofuels, timber, water use 2. Natural habitats are declining 3. Mitigating climate change Increased pressure on land for production of biomass Guna-lahan Pertanian EU biofuel strategy 2006 2010 2020 1% (produced in EU) 6% 10% of total area 10% 43% of total area Nowicki 2006 Current land use in Europe Land use in EU-27 arable land permanent pastures permanent crops forests other areas Eurostat 2008 Land use demands Biofuel production Agriculture Natural grasslands How do we conserve ecosystem services and biodiversity ? Agri-environmental schemes: Heterogeneity in landscapes Extensification Protected areas Extensive agriculture, Dehesas in Spain EU common agricultural policy CAP • Implemented nationally as rural development plans with additional national funding • CAP (12 000 million €/yr), 47% of EU budget • Farming is 5% of European economy • CAP subsidies – Area based income support – Rural development actions – Agri-environmental schemes Jasa-jasa ekosistem terancam oleh Pertanian Intensif 1. Musuh alami 2. Pollination 3. Resistance to pests & invasive species 4. Siklus Hara 5. Terensi Air 6. Retensi Carbon Intensification and above ground services • Increased heterogeneity may give higher diversity • Effect is scale dependent • Not true for all species Tscharnkte et al. 2007 Soil ecosystem services • Nutrient cycling N, P retention and availability to plants • Water retention Aggregate structure, organic matter • Carbon retention Fuels microbial activity, mitigates climate change Soil ecosystem services -the ”workers” Soil services Reduced under intensive management 30 25 20 grassland field 15 10 5 0 bacterial biomass AM-fungi fungi Hedlund 2002 SOILSERVICE Conflicting demands of land use: Soil biodiversity and the sustainable delivery of ecosystem goods and services in Europe • value soil ecosystem services. • predict sustainability of ecosystem services, by field and modelling studies. • Build scenarios to identify economical and social drivers of land use http://www.kem.ekol.lu.se/soilservice/index.html Soil carbon Nutrients Natural enemies Pollination Land use demands Biofuel production Agriculture Natural grasslands Valuasi Jasa-jasa Ekologis Market values of ecological services: prevention of pests - natural enemies pollination water retention nutrient retention Non market values: recreation landscapes Markanday et al 2008 Valuasi Ekonomi merupakan pendekatan yang dinamis Jasa-jasa Ekosistem dalam Pertanian: 1. Dynamic network of interacting organisms 2. Responding to changes in land use 3. Depending on spatial and temporal scales JASA-JASA TANAH Economic model simulated landscapes predicts regional land use (20 yrs) Ecological model farmers scale predicts output of ecosystem services Values of services for farmer and society Predictions on sustainability Feed back to policymakers AgriPoliS Agent-based model of regional structural change over time and space Factor endowment Interactions Farms Actions Agricultural Policy Simulator (Happe 2004, Brady et al 2007) Institute of Agricultural Development in Central and Eastern Europe (IAMO), Halle, Germany Driver untuk AgriPoliS Eksogen: 1. Prices of inputs/outputs 2. Wage and interest rates 3. Agricultural policy 4. Climate 5. Technology Endogen: 1. Land market 2. Regional markets 3. Input & output levels 4. Land use 5. Landscape impacts 6. ES production Output from AgriPoliS • Farm structure – Average farm size – Number of farms – Distribution of farm type • Land use – Composition of crops – Distribution of field size – Landscape mosaic • Econ. Performance – Land rents by soil type – Farm income – Farm profit – Investment activity – Returns to labour • Livestock – Numbers of livestock – Animal density Landscape impacts – Land use & field size (b) Change in mean Field Size, Västerbotten 60% (b) Field type as proportion of landscape, Västerbotten 250% 50% 200% 40% 150% 30% 20% 100% 10% 50% 0% -10% Intensive Grass Extensive Grass Arable Crops All Arable Semi-Nat Grassland 0% Intensive Grass Extensive Grass Arable Crops -50% -20% -30% Semi-Nat Grassland -100% AGENDA REFORM BOND AGENDA REFORM BOND Land use data (GIS based) Southern Sweden Cereal production Grasslands