Transcript Slide 1

STUDY FOR CLIMATE CHANGE
IMPACT ASSESSMENT ON
AGRICULTURE AND ADAPTATIONS
STRATEGY DEVELOPMENT IN
BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA
PhD Goran Trbic
Country's Geography and Population
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Bosnia and Herzegovina (B&H) has the total surface of
51129 km2, and according to its geographical position in the
Balkan Peninsula it belongs to the Adriatic basin and Black
Sea basin
Bosnia and Herzegovina belongs to the Danube an
countries group, as well to the Mediterranean countries
In accordance with the Dayton Peace Agreement (DPA)
from 1995, the State of Bosnia and Herzegovina (B&H) is
administratively divided into two parts, i.e. the two
autonomous entities: the Republic of Srpska (RS) and the
Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina (FB&H). In
addition, a separate District Brcko was established within
Bosnia and Herzegovina's boarders
According to the census from 1991, the total population was
4.377.033. Today it is estimated that over one million live
abroad. GDP per capita of about 2500 USD, placing B&H
among medium-developing countries.
Overview of the General Climate Policy
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The following priorities were set up by the above
mentioned Program:
Capacity Building of Bosnia and Herzegovina to deal
with climate change issues and fulfillment of the
commitments related to the preparation of the National
Communication and its submission to the UNFCCC
within deadline set by the Convention’s provision;
Creation of the national inventory system and estimates
of changes of the greenhouse gases emission at the
level of enterprises, entities and at the country level;
Initiation of the projects with financial support of the GEF
in the climate change focal area, regarding the energy
efficiency and energy conservation, promoting the
application of renewable energy, reducing the long-term
costs of low greenhouse gas emitting energy
technologies, and promoting environmentally sustainable
transport;
Overview of the General Climate Policy
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Collecting the necessary data and information and work
on the Study of the B&H circumstances for ratification of
the Kyoto Protocol;
Preparation of the National Climate Action Plan for Bosnia
and Herzegovina;
Enhancing the cooperation with bodies of UNFCCC, Kyoto
Protocol, Intergovernmental panel for climate changes
(IPCC) and GEF;
Initiation of the national Program and projects for capacity
building under the Program of the World Meteorological
Organization, in the fields of climate monitoring and
climate extreme detection, early warning and forecasting,
as well as climate database construction and
management, using advanced methods and technologies;
Initiation of the projects on synergy activities for the
implementation of the UN Convention related to climate
change, biodiversity and desertification.
Other steps taken for implementation
of the UNFCCC
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Bosnia and Herzegovina successfully finalized a two year
ratification processes and the Kyoto Protocol to the UNFCCC
is ratified in July 2007
Although a Non-Annex I Party (developing country) to
UNFCCC and Kyoto Protocol, Bosnia and Herzegovina needs
to does substantial work in the area of climate change
The country is fully committed to meeting the requirements
stipulated in the Article 4 (Commitments) and Article 12
(Communication and information related to implementation) of
the Convention and B&H National Focal Point to UNFCCC in
cooperation with other responsible institutions made all
necessary action for Initial National Communication
preparation. It is expected that its development will start this
(2007) year
Observation system, national
scientific and technical research
capacities
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Bosnia and Herzegovina is a member of WMO (World
Meteorological Organization) and GCOS (Global Climate
Observing System)
At present, meteorological and hydrological observations
and research are carried out by Hydro-meteorological
Institutes in Republic of Srpska and Federation of Bosnia
and Herzegovina
The existing capacities of the network of observing
stations for systematic monitoring and reporting, both in
terms of equipment and human resources is inadequate
and insufficient
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Apart from the need for the optimization and
modernization of the current hydro-meteorological
network, there is a need for improvement and more
investments to be engaged in national scientific and
technical research capacities in the Country
Research activities and capacity building efforts could
comprise climate studies on possible impacts on
different sensitive sectors to provide a base for:
Development and implementation of methods for
local climate change scenario;
Development and implementation of methods for
assessment of impacts, sensitivity and vulnerability
to climate change;
Development and implementation of methods for
climate change risk assessment;
Development of methods and measures for
adaptation to climate change.
Analysis of the climate change in B&H
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The main objectives of this study are to stock take
background climate information necessary for the future
climate change research and local climate change
scenarios development (particularly for temperature and
precipitation), with a temporal and spatial resolution
appropriate for practical applications, such as agriculture
effects of climate change assessment and options for
adaptation development
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This study has also conducted research of basic climatic
elements such as: air temperature and precipitation for
Bosnia and Herzegovina for base referent period 19611990.
General climate characteristics of
Bosnia and Herzegovina
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Statistical analysis is primarily centered on surface air
temperature and precipitation, the two variables most used
in weather and climate assessment studies
Tendency of climate extremes are analysed using series of
the standardized precipitation index and days with air
temperature higher 30°C
From given reasons the climate of Bosnia and
Herzegovina varies from temperate continental climate in
the northern Panonian lowlands along the river Sava and
in the foothill zone, to alpine climate in the mountain
regions and Mediterranean climate in the coastal and
lowest Herzegovina’s regions of the south and southeast.
General climate characteristics of Bosnia
and Herzegovina
Fig. 1. Spacial distribution of the mean annual air temperature in B&H, period 1961-1990.
General climate characteristics of Bosnia
and Herzegovina
Fig. 2. Spacial distribution of the mean annual precipitation in B&H, period 1961-1990
Climate trends in Bosnia and
Herzegovina over the 20th century
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The temperature on the territory of B&H showed an increase
by 0.6°C during the last century where precipitation has
presented a reduction, but of no significant statistical
importance
From the analysis of the available data the following can be
concluded
1.The 1901-1940 and 1950-1970 decades were the most
cold of the century for all of the areas of Bosnia and
Herzegovina
2. There is a trend of temperature increase during 20th
century, particular after 1970, witch rate increase with time
3. The 2000 was the warmest year in Bosnia and
Herzegovina in 20th century with the mean annual
temperature of 2.0°C recorded above normal for the period
1961-1990.
Climate trends in Bosnia and
Herzegovina over the 20th century
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Regionally and locally, in Bosnia and Herzegovina during
the same period the variations are as follow:
1. Meteorological stations in B&H show an increasing trend
of temperature in 20th century. In this area, the temperature
increased by 0.6°C during the period 1925-2000. Significant
increase in temperature was occurred during the decades
1970-2000. Seasonal mean temperature for the summer
months of the 1990 decade was the higher for 1°C in
compare with mean 1961-1990 normal value, where in
winter months the increase was smaller (about 0.3°C). The
summer of the 2003 was the warmest in B&H during last
100 years. The winter 2006/2007 was the warmest in
northern parts B&H during last 100 years, in the other parts
between three warmest during last 100 years.
Climate trends in Bosnia and
Herzegovina over the 20th century
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2. The precipitation in the Bosnia and Herzegovina especially
Herzegovina and eastern part of B&H showing reduction trend over
20th century which is due to the reduction of the precipitation in the
summer, spring and winter months
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3. The decades 1950-1960 and 1980-2000 are the most drought
decade in B&H. During the period 1950-2003 there was a gradual
reduction of the precipitation, which lead to the great drought period
during the decade 1990
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4. However because of trends global worming the number of short
warm periods are increasing also is evident large number of short
cold periods what indicating on huge oscillations of temperatures.
Analyses of precipitations indicate large number of pentads sum with
extreme values. Processing pentad values we determined presence.
We indicated cold and worm waves and large variability regime of
precipitations.
Climate trends in Bosnia and
Herzegovina over the 20th century
y = 0.006x + 9.6012
15
10
5
1990
1980
1970
1960
1950
1940
1930
1920
1910
0
1900
Annual av.air temper.0C
Annual average air temperature trend for BiH, period 1901-2000
Climate trends in Bosnia and
Herzegovina over the 20th century
Precipitation (mm)
Annual precipitation trend for Bosnia
and Herzegovina, period 1901-2000
y = -0.2933x + 1044
2000
1500
1000
500
0
1
10 19 28 37 46 55 64 73 82 91 100
Climate change impact on agriculture
in Bosnia and Herzegovina
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Beside these regional climate changes caused bay global
climate changes, significant changes could be expected in a
local area
Following that scenario of partially application of measures for
declining emitting of greenhouse gases, on the territory of
Bosnia and Herzegovina could be also expected the increase
of air temperature for 3-4 ºC under the average by the end of
21st Century
In next few decades could be expected significant reduction
of days with snow, reduction of rainfall in warm half of the
year which would be resulted with reduction of soil humidity
and availability of water resources
Climate change impact on agriculture
in Bosnia and Herzegovina
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Reduction of summer rainfall on territory of Bosnia and
Herzegovina would be under 20% by the end of the century,
and towards climate models in the worst possible scenario
(continuing the usual practice of emitting of greenhouse
gases), the increase of air temperature would be even bigger
and rainfall deficit could reach 50% during the summer
Accomplishing these regional and local climate changes
particularly changes in rainfall regime during spring and
summer followed by extreme increase of air temperature will
have a negative influence on agriculture and other parts of
economic that are under influence of climate and whether
changes
Climate change impact on agriculture
in Bosnia and Herzegovina
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The impacts of climate change on agriculture are estimated to
result in small percentage changes in global income, with
positive changes in more developed regions and smaller or
negative changes in developing regions (low to medium
confidence)
The effectiveness of adaptation (agronomic and economic) in
ameliorating the impacts of climate change will vary regionally
and depend a great deal on regional resource endowments,
including stable and effective institutions
These studies indicate that climate change will lower the
incomes of vulnerable populations and increase the absolute
number of people at risk of hunger (low confidence)
Elaboration of potential
adaptation measures
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Predicted climate changes in the decades to come
represent a new challenge that is setting new specific
requests in the field both of agricultural theory and practice
Taking into consideration all of the previously mentioned,
serious global strategies of future development of
agriculture lean toward, above all, optimal exploatation of
soil, what comprises the application of high technology on
the most productive agricultural lands, so agricultural lands
less suitable for the agricultural production, but rich in flora
and fauna, could be preserved
However, even such, more or less intensive technology has
to be harmonised with the requests for sustainable
agriculture and sustainable exploatation of soil, along with
having respect for possible directions of climate change in
some agroecological areas of Bosnia and Herzegovina
Elaboration of potential
adaptation measures
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Higher temperatures and lower humidity of the soil due to
decrease in falls, will significantly impact biological, chemical and
physical features of soil
It is highly probable that the mentioned trends in temperature
and falls will intensify processes of soil degradation because of
the erosion caused by wind and water, as well as inadequate
exploatation of soil
Except the mentioned, this problem is more complex due to the
fact that domestic farmers today are still not enough aware of the
problem of climate changes, because they demonstrated their
ability in the past to promptly adapt to climate variability and
other factors.
Key elements in approaching the problem of vulnerability and
adaptation of agriculture to climate changes are not only
changes of average climatic conditions, but climate extremes,
variability and speed of climate changes
Practices, obstacles and capacities
needs in agriculture adaptation to
climate change
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Extension of warm period, and consequently a prolongation of
the vegetation period, will provide more possibilities for
adaptation of agriculture, especially in higher and medium
latitude and higher altitude, where the agricultural production is
now limited by insufficient length of the period without frost
A length of the vegetation season enables a change in
selecting sorts and hybrids from the ones riping earlier to the
ones which ripe later, giving more crops, then avoiding
unsuitable periods concerning the providing of sufficient
quantity of water deriving from precipitation, two harvests of
crops with shorter vegetation, etc
Regarding winter conditions for growing plants, heating of the
atmosphere leads to less risk of damaging winter crops by frost
and other unsuitable conditions of cold season
Practices, obstacles and capacities
needs in agriculture adaptation to
climate change
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According to opinions of numerous experts, a genetic base for
introduction of new sorts and hybrids of agricultural plants
able of adapting to expected climatic conditions is rather
broad, so, in this respect, significant effects can be expected
 It needs to be said that climate change in many regions will
decrease water resources available for irrigation, because
increase of evaporation will be higher than precipitation
 In such conditions, a matter of technology applications for
rational usage of water in the irrigation, introduction of the
system "drop by drop", and similar, will become even more
spoken of
Practices, obstacles and capacities
needs in agriculture adaptation to
climate change
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Also, even various agrotechnical measures directed to better
economisation of water in the soil, such as, for example,
early spring moulding up of furrows for the purpose of
preserving winter humidity, and introduction of minimal or
reduced soil exploatation and similar measures, may play an
important role in avoiding damages which appeared under
the influence of a very expressed sharpness of the climate,
as well as growing of sorts and hybrids of some plants,
tolerant to drought
All mentioned options of adaptation of agriculture belong to
the so-called "first group of tasks", and to them it needs to
join proposals for improvement of damaged soil needed for
broadening up of agricultural lands and increase in food
production
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In comparison to the first group, the so-called "second
group of tasks" predicts development of multi-functional
agriculture, which, except food, also produces energy
sources that are less dangerous for the pollution of the
environment
In order to achieve this, it is necessary to undertake a series
of activities with the purpose of informing the public and
strengthening capacities, as in the domain of research, so in
the domain of training the farmers and decision-makers in the
field of agriculture
Improvement of monitoring the climate and crops of the most
important grown plants, and providing of periodical climate
estimations and agrometeorological information for the needs
of agriculture and forestry, as well as information on the
change in intent of usage of the soil in regional plans,
represent important tasks for conducting successful
adaptation of agriculture to projected climate changes
Conclusions and recommendations
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Gaps, needs and priorities
The Bosnia and Herzegovina’s Initial national communication
is not implemented and adaptation measures for agriculture
were not identified;
Weak national capacity for comprehensive quantitative and
qualitative Vulnerability and Adaptation (V&A) assessment,
which should be put in broader socio- economic context to
arrive at cost-effective adaptation measures;
Poor data on adaptation options and lack of mechanisms for
information sharing and management across agriculture
sector;
Limited awareness of stakeholders and population on climate
change adaptation;
Insufficient and limited funding for adaptation study
Conclusions and recommendations
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Gaps, needs and priorities
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Priority on setting up a national strategy for adaptation to
climate change and comprehensive implementation plans
for adaptation. Within the BiH Initial National Comunication
(INC) should be assessed vulnerability and identified
adaptation measures as well as developed the “ Policy
Framework for implementing adaptation measures”;
Improving early warning and response systems;
Developing and transferring of adaptation technologies;
Education farmers on sensitive issues of climate change
Bosnia and Herzegovina Capacity Building needs and
priorities related to the implementation of UNFCCC
and the Kyoto Protocol
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Actions might include the following
Specific needs:
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Financial assistance for technological capacity building in
the fields of systematic climate observation, data collection,
processing, archiving, climate database development and
climate change analysis and forecasting (meteorological,
hydrological and other relevant instruments and
equipments, hardware and software, etc.);
Financial assistance for staff to take advantage of UNFCCC,
IPCC, WMO, GCOS and other international institutions
training opportunities related to: climate change impacts
studies and projections, vulnerability, adaptations and
mitigation assessment; national GHG emission inventory
preparation and reporting;
Actions might include the following
Specific needs:
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Financial assistance for Project “Capacity building for
adaptation to climate change in agriculture sector”;
Enhance awareness and knowledge on climate changes, their
possible impacts, and other related climate change issues in
B&H;
Support participation of stakeholders - Strengthen relevant
and key research institutions and NGOs;
Increasing investments in building capacity in the priority
areas identified above and international aid are vital for
Bosnia and Herzegovina to overcome barriers in
reduction of vulnerability of agriculture to impacts of
climate change through the adaptation measures
Thank you for your attention!