Реконструкция глобальной температуры с

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Transcript Реконструкция глобальной температуры с

Boris Aparin,
Soil Museum, Saint-Petersburg Russia
Vyacheslav Rozhkov
Soil Science Institute , Moscow
Alexandra Izosimova,
Agrophysical Research Institute
V. Dokuchaev – founder of Soil science defined
soil as a result of interaction of soil formation
factors: rocks, climate, plants, organisms, relief
and time.
По определению основателя науки о почве
В.В. Докучаева, почва является функцией
(результатом) взаимодействия факторов
S = f (R,
Cl, O,
P) ∙ климата,
Т
почвообразования
: горных
пород,
растений, организмов, рельефа и времени.
Main parameters of climate that directly
influence on soil formation are sum of active
temperatures (∑t>10 Co ) and precipitationevaporation ratio. They determine values of
energy and water balances in soil:
a) energy consumption on soil formation
b) mechanism of organic-mineral interactions
c) transformation of organic and mineral
substances
d) flows of soil solutions
Areas of some soil types and their connection to
radiation balance and annual precepetation
1 – sands in deserts; 2 – serozems ; 3 – braun soils of semi-deserts ; 4 – chestnut soils of USSR and USA; 5 – chestnut soils of
Africa ; 6 – chernosems ; 7 – grey forest soils; 8 – podzols and podzolic soils ; 9 – brown forest soils ; 10 – soils of tundra; 11 –
yellow soils; 12 – red soils and laterits (main areal ; 12 а – red soils and laterits(rare spread) ; 13 – brown soils of dry sands and
bushes (Africa) ; 14 – black soils of savanna and tropic prairies ; 15 – red-brown soils of savanna (according to Volobuev)
Several thousand years are needed for
formation of a soil profile.
Profiles of different types of soil
Профили разных типов почв
Soil is an oscillatory system
Rate and intensity of soil genesis
processes
change
many
times
during soil life circle. This caused
mainly by temperature deviation
from climate norm.
Last 4000 years virgin chernosems grow with
the rate of 1-3 sm per 100 years
Shallow chernozems of Povolzhje and
Ukraine developed with the rate of
+1 sm per 100 years
 Middle deep chernozems of Povolzhje
and Ukraine, Central Chernozem zone of
RF developed with the rate of
+3.5 sm per 100 years
 Deep chernozems Caucse, Central
Chernozem zone developed with the rate of
+1.5 sm per 100 years
During the last 4000 years total carbon content
has been increasing with the rate of 60-140 kg
ha-1 year-1
(Kudeyarov V.)
Shallow chernozems in Povolzhje and Ukraine:
60-70 kg ha-1 year-1 or
260 т ha-1 – total content of C in soil
Middle deep chernozems in Povolzhje, Ukraine, Central Chernozem
Zone:
100-120 kg ha-1 year-1 or
500 т ha-1 – total content of C in soil
Deep chernozem Caucuses, Central Chernozem Zone
130-140 kg ha-1 year-1 or
400-500 т ha-1 – total content of C in soil
Development of soil profile and its basic typomorthic
properties is finished on climacteric phase. Soil comes to
stable equilibrium with climate factor of soil formation
(norm of climate)
Сha/Сfa
рН,
ReDox
∆S
АВС
Trajectory of soil development
Траектория развития почв
Stable
equilibrium
Unstable condition
Selfdevelopment of
soil
Change in climate
norm
Anthropogenic
influence
Thousands years
Change in trend of soil development may
happen due to:
 Selfdevelopment of soil (for example as a
result of salinization, desalinization,
waterlogging, carbonates leaching);
 Change in climate norm;
 Anthropogenic influence.
Reconstruction of global temperature in the
Northern hemisphere begining from year 1000
Years
Movement of water masses of Gulfstream and
scheme of its influence on weather conditions
in the North of Russian plain
1 – main direction given by longterm meander;
2 – ocean surface;
3 – wave, formed by stream going
to surface;
4 – stream under ocean surface.
Scheme of Gulfstream influence on weather conditions of the
North of Russian plain during last 600 years
Deviation
Norm
1 – long-;
2 – middle-;
3 – short-term influences.
Influence of different periodicity of change in surface grade
and water temperature in the beginning of stream on its
meander
1 – inclination
2 – long-; 3 – middle-; 4 – short-term stream meanders
Share of agricultural land in total land for
agricultural purposes
%
Ploughing up enormous areas in
Europe and Northern America led
to the change in carbon run off.
This started anthropogenic input
in global climate change
Sources of СО2 on the Earth (% from total
emissions of С-СО2)
(according to Kudeyarov V.)
4
25
41
30
Respiration of surface biota
Respiration of ocean biota
Respiration of soil
Anthropogenic activity
Average annual flow of carbon in soil of 3
different ecosystems
(Kudeyarov V.)
Ecosystems
Pure production Accumulation of
of
carbon in humus
photosynthesis
[kg ha-1]
[C, kg ha-1]
Broad leave forest
7500
480
Steppe
6000
1040
Arable land
2000
160
For the first time the analyses of
influence of agriculture on climate
and ecosystem of a separate
nature zone was done by V.
Dokuchaev in the monograph Our
steppes before and now. (1882)
This portrait is made
from soil – different
horizons
Continuous mechanical
damage of areal
Soil treatment
Changes in physical
&chemical properties
Changes in food resources
Changes in moisture and
air regimes
Changes in physical
properties
Soil Changes
Decrease in soil diversity
Erosion
Complete damage of soil
Contamination
Formation of new soil types
Salonisation
Transformation of soil
functions
Over drying
Fundamental change of soil
Over watering
 Since agriculture had become a geological
force, only types, scales and rates of the
anthropogenic soil degradation on their
results on the development of society were
subject to changes.
 A high land use productivity is always
accompanied by a certain rate of soil
degradation and by a disturbed balance of
Nature.
Soil degradation is partial or total decline in
soil productivity (quantitative or qualitative
or both) caused by water/wind erosion,
salinization, waterlogging, nutrients losses,
deterioration of soil texture, desertification,
pollution.
Considerable areas are excluded from agriculture due to
unsustainable use daily.
(FAO, Soil Charter, 1982)
Factors and processes of soil degradation
Soil degradation
Factors
Processes
Physical
Chemical
•decline in
texture;
•compacti
on
•crust
formation;
•erosion;
•break in
•moisture,
air and
temperatu
re regimes
•leaching;
• exhaustion
•salinization
•laterization
•contaminat
ion
Biological
Agricultural
decline in
total
biomass;
decline in
total
humus
content
decline
biodiversity
and activity
of soil
fauna and
flora
• eforestation
•over
ploughing;
•cultivation
too much
vegetables
and
monocrop;
• over
fertilization;
•over
pasturing
Industrial
• buildings;
•acid
precipitation; mancaused
degradation
Urbanization
excluding
soils from
agricultural
use due to
urbanization
On the territory of Russian Federation:
• More than 100 mln ha of land is
under
degradation
and
desertification
• Nearly 50% of population is living
on this land, more than 70% of
agricultural production is obtained
on it
The most spread type of soil degradation is
erosion
 Total area of eroded and deflated, erosion
and deflation risky agricultural territories
was 130 mln ha, including 84.8 mln ha of
arable land, 28.7 mln ha pastures.
 Middle and highly eroded agricultural land
was 26 %, including arable land – 14.9%,
hayfields – 1.2%, pastures – 9.3%.
 Area of eroded land annually increases on
400 – 500 thousands ha
Share of eroded land in Federal Regions of RF
Privolzhsky50.0%
Uralsky1.2%
Southern24.3%
North-West
0.6%
Central12.4%
Far East0.3%
Siberian
11.2%
42.6 mln ha of agricultural land is damaged by
water erosion. 15-20 mln ha of soil lose fertility
up to 10-30% due to washing away.
During the last 100 years soil extension has been
decreasing with the rate of 1.1 sm year-1
Natural anthropogenic change in extension of
steppes soils (Kudeyarov V.):
 Normal denudation averaged for 4 thousand
years is 0.6-0.7 sm per 100 years. Total
denudation for 7 thousand years is 45 sm.
 Rapid water denudation, erosion caused by
ploughing and overgrazing is 1.1 sm per 100
years for the last 0.8 thousand years
(Ivanov, Tabanakova, 2004)
Transfer of Сorg due to soil erosion in European part
of RF (Kudeyarov V.)
Exposed by erosion:
agricultural land - 23%;
 Arable land –
27%.
(in Central Chernozem Zone –
53-56%).
 Increase in area of washed
soils in Chernozem zone is
0.3% year-1,(and in some
regions up to 1% year-1).
Losses of solid phase were
5.8-6.7 t ha-1 (For grey
forest, podzolic and leached
chernozems)
Washing away of Corg, in
complex with solid phase
was:
 Podzolic and leached
chernozems
170-220 kg ha-1 year-1;
 Grey forest , soddy-podzolic
soils
90-120 kg ha-1 year-1
Water erosion and ravines formation are
increased due to soil compaction caused by
heavy agricultural machines.
Yield decreases up to 50% on highly
compacted soils
From 135 mln ha of arable land:
Slightly compacted – 17 mln ha
Middle compacted – 69 mln ha
Heavy compacted – 49 mln ha
Losses of fertility:
5-10%
20-30%
50-60%
13-15 mln tons of grain is lost only due to soil
compaction under soil preparation for sowing and during
sowing
50 000-100 000 ha is excluded from
arable land due to development of ravines.
Total length of ravines is >1 mln km,
total area 15 mln ha.
Deflation
26.4 mln ha of agricultural land is
damaged. Annual losses are 18-25 billions
RUB: yield losses on arable land is 36%,
on other land – 47%
Share of deflated land in Federal regions of RF
Siberian45.1%
Ural0.3%
Privolzhsky
9.1%
Far East0.1%
Central5.1%
NorthWest0.1%
Southern
40.2%
Share of wetlands in Federal Regions of RF
Far East 9.7%
nSiberia
22.8%
Ural
10.2%
Privolzhsky
10.2%
Central31.7%
North-WestSouthern10.0%
5.4%
Desertification (>50 mln ha)
«Desertification is soil
degradation in arid,
semiarid and dry sub
humid zones due to
different factors,
including climate
change and
anthropogenic activity».
(UN Convention on
desertification-fighting,1994)
Degradation of Grasslands is widely
spread as well
 Exposed by over
grazing, erosion
and deflation
 20% - salinizated
 30% - solonetz
complexes
 20% - stony
 5% - waterlogged.
Salinizated soils
Total area is 17.3
mln ha/6.8%
from
agricultural
land
Share of salinizated land in Federal regions
of RF
Central0.4%
North-West0.1%
Far East - 1.1%
Siberian33.1%
Southern52.7%
Ural5.9%
Privolzhsky6.7%
South of European part Russian Federation. Map of
salinizated soils
% soils having salts in
the upper 1 m layer
South of European part of Russian Federation. Map of
solonets and solonets like soils
% solonets soils
Anthropogenic land contamination
 More than 250 000 ha of
agricultural land are
contaminated in 10-100
times higher, than
background
 Emissions cover 8 mln ha
 3.6 mln ha are
contaminated by heavy
metals
Annual losses of plant production caused by anthropogenic
influence on environment (mln RUB)
Russia
Grain,
total
Sunflower
Sugar
beet
Potatoes
Vegeta Total
bles
125.8
10.5
5.9
123.0
126.9
392.1
Contamination of agricultural land by heavy
metals
•Investigated
•Share of
contaminated
land, %
•Thousands
of ha
•%
•Contaminated,
thousand of ha
•Pb
•31125
•14.1
•519
•1.66
•Cd
•29674
•13.4
•184
•0.62
•Hg
•14063
•6.3
•-
•-
•Zn
•38040
•17.2
•326
•1.92
•Cr
•11327
•5.1
•71
•0.62
•Ni
•18589
•8.4
•527
•2.84
•Cu
•37411
•16.9
•1416
•3.79
•Co
•17041
•7.8
•328
•1.92
Element
Soil
contamination by chemical pollutants of I and II class
Рис. 8. Загрязнение пахотных почв химическими веществами I и II
of danger
класса опасности
1-higher
than normative
rate
on pollutant
ofI Iкласса
classопасности;
of danger;
2-higher ПДК
than
normative
1 – превышение
ПДК (ОДК) по
отдельным
элементам
2 - превышение
(ОДК)
по
отдельным
элементам
II
класса
опасности;
3
–
локальные
загрязнения
выше
ПДК;
4
не
обследованные
rate on pollutant of II class of danger; 3- local contamination higher than normative
территории или загрязнение почв ниже ПДК
rate; 4- non-examined territories
Significance of different types of soil degradation for the
total amount of losses from arable land and current
trend of losses
Type of degradation
Approximate losses in 19701990.
Relative change of current
losses
(year 1990 = 1)
Water erosion
30
1.3
Deflation
8
1.2
Ravines
7
1.3
Humus losses
18
1.5
Compaction
20
0.8
Swamping
7
1.2
Salinization
6
1.1
Underflooding
4
1.0
Acidification
-
Increase area of acid soils in
1.5 times
Nutrients losses
-
Increase in 1.2 times
Soil degradation is a problem of all the
countries in the Worls
Total amount of cultivated land in the World is 1475 billions ha
300 millions ha – very much degraded land
+
910 millions ha – middle degraded land
+
140 millions ha – will be degraded during the coming 20 years
1450 billions ha – total amount of degraded land (by De Kimpe)
About 2/5 of productive areas in Africa, 1/3 in Asia and 1/5 in Latin
America are under the process of desertification.
During the last 100 years
emissions of greenhouse gases
have been significantly
influencing on climate.
Former and future concentrations of carbon dioxide
(Кудеяров В.Н.)
Temperature fluctuations on the Earth surface for the last
140 years (Kudeyarov V.)
Deviations from average temperature, C0
Specific time needed for changes in soil properties
1. Less than 1/10 year: total porosity, moisture content,
temperature, soil air composition, nitrogen content.
2. 1/10-1 year: рН, hydrolitical acidity, forms of nutrients,
varieties of soil organisms, microbiological activity, micro
fauna.
3. 1-10 years: heat conductivity, heat capacity, cation exchange
capacity, humus composition, meso fauna.
4. 10-100 years: features of soil surface, content of organic
matter, soil organisms, salinization.
5. 100-1000 years: mineral composition, chemical composition
of minerals, color of soil layers, iron concretions.
6. more than 1000 years: particles composition, particles
density, moisture content
There are several scenarios of climate change.
The following parameters should be taken into
account for the long-term forecast of influence
of climate change on natural soils:
• average long-term air temperature
• evaporation-precipitation ratio
• Type of soil genesis is formed in a
wide range of average annual air
temperature;
• Soil-plant system is highly flexible
and buffer
1 – tundra; 2 – forest-tundra; 3 – cold-soddy;
4 – light; 5 – grey; 6 – chestnut ;
7 – chernozem; 8 – soddy-podzolic; 9 – brown;
10 – yellow; 11 – desert-tropic;12 – light-red;
13 – dry savanna; 14 – red-brown; 15 – red
о
This is due to:
температура (С
(C)0и) терморяды
temperature
Annual
Average
годовая
Средняя
100
VII
3200
2400
2800
2200
1400
1800
30
1600
1100
800
900
700
500
600
400
300
200
150
Evident fluctuations of temperature during the last
thousand years will not lead to the change in type of
Среднее годовое количество осадков, мм.
soil genesis. Average Annual precipitation, mm
28
26
24
13
12
11
14
15
9
10
22
20
18
VI
50
16
14
12
V
10
4
8
25
6
5
6
IV
4
7
8
3
2
2
0
-2
III
-4
-6
-8
-10
II
-12
-14
1
-16
I
-18
-20
0,3
0,2
А
АВ
В
0,4
ВС
0,5 0,6 0, 8
С
СD
1, 6
1,0
D
E
1,8 02,0
EF F
увлажнения К и гидроряды
Коэффициент
Precipitation-evaporation
ratio
Evident changes in natural soils
will be only after change of
climate norm which will happen
in hundreds of years.
Proposals to the system of indicators of soil change
due to global climate warming
№
Indicators
Criterions
1
2
No
Name
3
4
Description
5
«Transparentе» criterions and indicators
1
Main direction in soil
evolution
1
Direction in soil formation
Soil regimes
2
Trend of changes in soil
properties
Time and
processes
2
Soil surface structure
1
Complex (system) of soil
properties
Contrasts,
geometry,
form,
complexity
3
Base soil
1
Classification definition
(main and secondary
process)
Content of
classification layers
4
Soil profile
1
System of genetic horizons
Profile codes
Under any scenarios of
climate change the
mezostructure of soil
surface will be changed:
component composition,
contrasts, etc
Podzols
Подзолы грунтово-глееватые
иллювиально-железистые
Подзолы грунтово-глееватые
иллювиально-гумусовые
Торфянисто-подзолы
иллювиально-гумусовые
Торфяно-подзолы
иллювиально-гумусовые
Anthropogenic changed soils
will react on climate change
more significantly and much
faster.
This is because they are
unstable and are exposed by
different types of degradation
Two parameters should be taken into account for the forecast of
climate change influence on soil degradation.
These are:
• Sum of plus temperatures (при Σ t> 10 ºС + Δt)
• Change in amount of precipitation
Form of degradation
Precipitation –evaporation
ratio >1
Precipitation –evaporation
ratio<1
W0+ΔW
W0ΔW
W0+ΔW
W0ΔW
Water erosionя
++
–
+

Deflation
0
0
–
++
Secondary salinisation
0
0
–
+
Dehumification
++
–
+
–
Chemical pollution
––
+
–
+
Biological pollution
––
+
–
W0 - moisture content in soil without taking into account climate change
ΔW – increase in moisture content due to climate change
Δt – increase in sum of active temperatures due to global warming
+ - increase in degradation
– - decrease in degradation
0 – absence of degradation
Stable progressive climate warming will lead to
irreversible changes in mineral matrix of soils, which
are involved in intensive agriculture. Changes in
external fields of soil formation (temperatures and
precipitation) will lead to transformation of internal
fields (energy, hydrological, biological). Energy of
destruction of soil minerals will increase.
Consequences:
- Simplification of mineral matrix due to accumulation
of minerals tolerant to weathering;
- Loss of soil function for selfreproduction of
fertility(hydroponics)
- Deterioration of quality of agricultural products
- Total dependence of agricultural producer on
producer of mineral fertilizers(no fertilizers – no
yield).
Thank you for your attention!