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Effects of projected climate change on energy supply and demand in the Pacific Northwest and Washington State Alan F. Hamlet Se-Yeun Lee Kristian Mickelson Marketa McGuire Elsner •JISAO/CSES Climate Impacts Group •Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering University of Washington Human Health Infrastructure Water Resources Agriculture/Economics Coasts A comprehensive climate change impacts assessment for Washington State Forest Resources Energy Salmon Adaptation Global Climate Change Scenarios for the PNW Consensus Forecasts of Temperature and Precipitation Changes from IPCC AR4 GCMs 21st Century Climate Impacts for the Pacific Northwest Region Mote, P.W. and E. P. Salathe Jr., 2009: Future climate in the Pacific Northwest Overview of the WA Energy Assessment: Part I: Changes in Energy Supply from the Columbia River Hydro System Part II: Changes in Energy Demand for Space Heating and Cooling Needs Part I: The Columbia River Hydro System •Supplies 70% of the Region’s Electricity •Is primarily responsible for the relatively low cost of energy in the PNW •Strongly affects local energy supplies in WA •Strongly influenced by climate Snapshot of Snohomish Co. PUD Overview of Methods Temperature Changes Hydrologic Changes Precipitation Changes Changes in Hydropower Production Schematic of VIC Hydrologic Model and Energy Balance Snow Model Snow Model Columbia River Hydro System Changes in Modified Flow in the Columbia River at The Dalles, OR 14,000 Streamflow (cms) 12,000 10,000 Historic 2020_A1B 2040_A1B 2080_A1B 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 Hamlet et al., 2009: Effects of Projected Climate Change on Energy Supply and Demand in the Pacific Northwest and Washington State S ep Aug J ul J un May Apr Mar F eb J an D ec Nov His toric E nergy_2020_A 1B E nergy_2040_A 1B E nergy_2080_A 1B O ct S ys tem Wide E nerg y P roduc tion (million MW-hrs ) Streamflow Timing Shifts in the Columbia River Will Impact Regional Electrical Energy Production Conclusions: •2020s: regional hydropower production is projected to increase by 0.5-4% in winter, decrease by 9-11% in summer, with annual reductions of 1-4%. By the •2040s: hydropower production is projected to increase by 4.0-4.2% in winter, decrease by about 13-16% in summer, with annual reductions of about 2.5-4.0%. •2080s: hydropower production is projected to increase by 7-10% in winter, decrease by about 18-21% in summer, with annual reductions of 3.0-3.5%. •The largest and most robust changes in hydropower production are projected to occur from June-Sept, during the peak air conditioning season. Outflow from Priest Rapids Dam (Hanford Reach) (cms) Changes in Simulated Regulated Flow 6000 5500 5000 4500 4000 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 Historic 2020_B1 2040_B1 2080_B1 2020_A1B 2040_A1B 2080_A1B 0.01 0.12 0.23 0.34 0.45 0.56 0.67 0.78 0.89 Probability of Exceedance Important Adaptation Considerations: Climate change will increasingly disrupt the existing balance between hydropower, flood control, and instream flow augmentation in the basin, requiring adjustments in reservoir operating policies. Transboundary relationships between ID, WA, OR and between Canada and the U.S. will be impacted, requiring potential adjustments in transboundary agreements such as the Columbia River Treaty. Losses of summer energy production may have important inter-regional impacts because of loss of local capacity and reduced ability to provide energy transfers to CA and the southwest in summer. Part II: Changes in Primary Energy Demand for Space Heating and Cooling Needs •Is a fundamental driver of residential and light commercial energy demand •Strongly influenced by climate via temperature (heating and cooling degree days) •Has important implications for individuals, utilities, and high-level planning at the regional and state level End-Use Energy Consumption by Sector (1970-2001) 1,600 1,400 1,200 Trillion Btu Transportation 1,000 800 600 Industrial 400 Commercial 200 Residential 0 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 http://www.cted.wa.gov/site/533/default.aspx 1995 2000 Source: EIA SEDS Overview of Methods Monthly Temp. Changes Heating Degree Days Population Growth Heating Energy Demand Overview of Methods Monthly Temp. Changes Cooling Degree Days Population Growth A/C Use Cooling Energy Demand Heating and Cooling Degree Days t max t min HDD max 0,18.33 2 (65 ˚F) t max t min CDD max 0, 23.89 2 (75 ˚F) Relationship Between CDD and A/C_Pen Gridded Heating and Cooling Energy Demand Indices Heating Energy Demand Index (HEDI) HEDI = Population * (Annual HDD) Cooling Energy Demand Index (CEDI) CEDI = A/C_Pen * Population * (Annual CDD) Combined Growth Management Act and Gridded Pop of the World v3 Data Sets Changes in Heating Energy Demand in WA Avg Heating Energy Demand (million person-HDD) 8.0 Population growth alone 7.0 6.0 Warming alone (A1B) Warming with pop growth (A1B) 5.0 4.0 +22% +56% +35% 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 2000 2020 2040 2080 Changes in Residential Cooling Energy Demand in WA Avg Cooling Energy Demand (million person-CDD) 0.7 Population growth alone 0.6 0.5 Warming alone (A1B) Warming with pop growth (A1B) +1845% 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 +550% +200% 0.0 2000 2020 2040 2080 Comparison of Peak Demand in the PNW and N. CA Westerling A, Barnett T, Gershunov A, Hamlet AF, Lettenmaier DP, Lu N, Rosenberg E, Steinemann AC (2008) Climate forecasts for improving management of energy and hydropower resources in the western U.S., California Energy Commission, PIER Energy-Related Environmental Research Program. CEC-500-2008-XXX Conclusions •Despite decreasing heating degree days with projected warming, annual heating energy demand is projected to increase due to population growth. •Residential cooling energy demand is projected to increase rapidly due to increasing population, increasing cooling degree days, and increasing use of air conditioning. •Peak electrical demands in summer will likely increase due to increased population, CDD, and A/C penetration in the PNW. Important Adaptation Considerations: •Individual consumers and some businesses will likely see overall reductions in annual heating and cooling energy needs (especially in western WA). •Utilities, by comparison, will face rising demand across the board, and especially in summer when CDD and A/C use are projected to increase dramatically. Reductions in regional energy sources from hydropower will intensify impacts to utilities in summer, and may increase prices to consumers. Overview of Adaptation Strategies: •Increase energy capacity using renewable and conventional resources to meet projected increases in demand. •Reduce per capita demand via changes in enduse technology, building standards, solar energy installations on residential and commercial buildings, conservation, etc. •Change water management policy governing the Columbia River hydro system.