Transcript Document
What Lies Ahead Thomas C. Peterson NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center Asheville, North Carolina 1 A Growing Interest 2: Climate and Plants Asheville, NC March 22, 2012 Outline of the talk: • The basic physics of climate change science • Implications of this physics – On temperature and precipitation • Projected changes relevant to the plant sector • A bit on impacts 2 A Growing Interest 2: Climate and Plants Asheville, NC March 22, 2012 3 A Growing Interest 2: Climate and Plants Asheville, NC March 22, 2012 We need the greenhouse effect • The Earth’s surface temperature is ~60ºF • Without the greenhouse effect it would be ~5ºF • But humans are changing the radiative properties of the atmosphere and thereby the greenhouse effect 4 A Growing Interest 2: Climate and Plants Asheville, NC March 22, 2012 Climate Forcing Summary Ravishankara (2006) Warming versus cooling effects are like the tortoise versus the hare. 5 A Growing Interest 2: Climate and Plants Asheville, NC March 22, 2012 Do you believe in global warming? • I believe in quantum physics. 6 A Growing Interest 2: Climate and Plants Asheville, NC March 22, 2012 Quantum physics tells us that • Infrared (IR) energy can only be absorbed and radiated in very small particle-like packets of energy called quanta 7 A Growing Interest 2: Climate and Plants Asheville, NC March 22, 2012 Quantum physics tells us that • Infrared (IR) energy can only be absorbed and radiated in very small particle-like packets of energy called quanta • Each molecule can absorb and radiate quanta at different wavelengths 8 A Growing Interest 2: Climate and Plants Asheville, NC March 22, 2012 Quantum physics tells us that • Infrared (IR) energy can only be absorbed and radiated in very small particle-like packets of energy called quanta • Each molecule can absorb and radiate quanta at different wavelengths • Two atom molecules can absorb very little IR energy – E.g., Nitrogen (N2) and Oxygen (O2) • 98% of the atmosphere 9 A Growing Interest 2: Climate and Plants Asheville, NC March 22, 2012 Quantum physics tells us that • Infrared (IR) energy can only be absorbed and radiated in very small particle-like packets of energy called quanta • Each molecule can absorb and radiate quanta at different wavelengths • Two atom molecules can absorb very little IR energy – E.g., Nitrogen (N2) and Oxygen (O2) • 98% of the atmosphere • Three or more atom molecules do absorb and radiate in the IR – E.g., Carbon Dioxide (CO2), water vapor (H2O), methane (CH4) • 2% of the atmosphere • CO2 only 0.04% of the atmosphere 10 A Growing Interest 2: Climate and Plants Asheville, NC March 22, 2012 Are CO2 and other greenhouse gasses really responsible for changing the global temperature? • Ice cores can give us the long view 11 A Growing Interest 2: Climate and Plants Asheville, NC March 22, 2012 Are CO2 and other greenhouse gasses really responsible for changing the global temperature? • The long view says they are definitely related 12 A Growing Interest 2: Climate and Plants Vostock ice core data from Petit et al., 1999; current CO2 data 2007) Asheville, NCfrom NOAA March(Tans 22, 2012 • Atmospheric carbon dioxide is predicted to rise to concentrations not seen in perhaps 25 million years – Pekar 2008 GCCI,132009 A Growing Interest 2: Climate and Plants Asheville, NC March 22, 2012 Scenarios • Future warming depends on how much greenhouse gases are emitted • Several different scenarios were developed based on possible changes in – – – – Population Rate of adoption of new technologies Economic growth But not policies 14 A Growing Interest 2: Climate and Plants Asheville, NC March 22, 2012 Data through 2007 GCCI 2009 15 Kaya identity: CO2 emissions from human sources = (population)x(GDP/capita)x(Energy/GDP)x(CO2/energy) Hence 2008 emission likely to be lower than 2007’s. Data for 2008 available in June 2009. A Growing Interest 2: Climate and Plants Asheville, NC March 22, 2012 GCCI 2009 16 A Growing Interest 2: Climate and Plants Asheville, NC March 22, 2012 Not from climate A to climate B • Projections to end of century gives appearance of climate change ending then • Plan for continual change – Where the rate of change is most relevant 17 A Growing Interest 2: Climate and Plants Asheville, NC March 22, 2012 Clausius–Clapeyron relationship 18 A Growing Interest 2: Climate and Plants Asheville, NC March 22, 2012 GCCI, 2009 19 A Growing Interest 2: Climate and Plants Asheville, NC March 22, 2012 Humidity increases are greatest where temperatures are highest 20 A Growing Interest 2: Climate and Plants Asheville, NC Peterson et al., March 201122, 2012 Temperature increases are highest where humidity is lowest 21 A Growing Interest 2: Climate and Plants Asheville, NC Peterson et al., March 201122, 2012 GCCI, 2009 22 A Growing Interest 2: Climate and Plants Asheville, NC March 22, 2012 As climate warms, hardwood trees out-compete evergreen trees that are adapted to colder conditions GCCI, 2009 23 A Growing Interest 2: Climate and Plants Asheville, NC March 22, 2012 24 A Growing Interest 2: Climate and Plants Asheville, NC March 22, 2012 Projected Shifts in Forest Types GCCI, 2009 Mid-range warming scenario 25 A Growing Interest 2: Climate and Plants Asheville, NC March 22, 2012 GCCI, 2009 26 A Growing Interest 2: Climate and Plants Asheville, NC March 22, 2012 Ecosystems processes, such as those that control growth and decomposition, have been affected by climate change. • Climate change has strong influence on the processes that control growth and development in ecosystems • Temperature increases can: Kudzu vines – Speed up plant growth, especially weeds – Rates of decomposition – How rapidly the cycling of nutrients occurs 27 A Growing Interest 2: Climate and Plants Asheville, NC March 22, 2012 Climate change is here and now and in our own backyards • In the U.S., spring now arrives an average of 10 days to two weeks earlier than 20 years ago – The growing season is lengthening over much of the continental U.S. – Many migratory bird species arrive earlier 28 A Growing Interest 2: Climate and Plants Asheville, Photograph by Robert Lubeck: Animals Animals—Earth Scenes NC March 22, 2012 29 A Growing Interest 2: Climate and Plants Asheville, NC March 22, 2012 The End 30 A Growing Interest 2: Climate and Plants Asheville, NC March 22, 2012