Transcript This is a sample - Sustainable Development Commission

UKCIP08 Scenarios, Climate Change
Impacts in Scotland, and Adapting to
the Impacts
© UKCIP 2006
Sustainable Development Commission for Scotland,
29 October 2008, Edinburgh
Chris West, Director,
UK Climate Impacts Programme
Scenarios Background
 UK climate scenarios produced since 1991
 UKCIP published climate scenarios in 1998 and 2002
 Each became more detailed, building upon:
 improved scientific knowledge & computing power
 stakeholder requirements
 Each represented best science at that time
© UKCIP 2006
CCIRG91
CCIRG96
UKCIP98
UKCIP02
UKCIP08
UKCIPNext
Uses of Climate Models
© UKCIP 2006
Climate model
Testing
against data
Grounding in
reality
Huge set of
assumptions
Acknowledgement
of uncertainties
Understanding
Forecasts
Predictions
Projections
Uses of Climate Models
© UKCIP 2006
Climate model
Testing
against data
Grounding in
reality
Huge set of
assumptions
Acknowledge all
uncertainties
Understanding
Forecasts
Predictions
Projections
What Users wanted from UKCIP08
 Improved consideration and quantification of
associated uncertainties – probabilistic
What users wanted in UKCIP08 information
 Improved spatial and temporal detail
 Improved accessibility (dedicated online
user interface)
© UKCIP 2006
 More information about climate change in
the marine environment
Probability
?
VERY UNLIKELY
LIKELY

X
VERY UNLIKELY
© UKCIP 2006
Some climate variable
Greater spatial & temporal detail
• 25km grid
• Pre-defined areas
•Administrative
•River basins
• Observed climate datasets
including daily max and min
temperature
• Weather Generator to provide
statistical expressions of future
daily conditions consistent with
the climate projections
© UKCIP 2006
•More time periods
Components of UKCIP08
Historical climate
information
© UKCIP 2006
Information on
present UK climate
and recent trends,
based on
observations
Probabilistic
climate
projections
Information on
future climate,
provided in
probabilistic terms
Marine
projections
Information on
modelled future
changes below the
surface of sea
areas around UK
UKCIP08 products
A set of high-level headline messages will
give a national overview of the main
changes described by UKCIP08
Reports including:
• User guidance
• Climate trends
• Probabilistic changes of climate
• Marine Projections
• Summary Report
• Pre-prepared maps and graphs

The UKCIP08 User Interface will allow users to create:
• Individual maps, probabilistic plots (PDFs, CDFs), plume diagrams, etc
• Customised data products such as GIS-format files and sampled projections to input into
impact models
© UKCIP 2006
• It will also provide access to an integrated Weather Generator
Supporting the use of UKCIP08
Training
 Have completed a series of awareness workshops;
training material on our website
 Post-launch training events – big programme of
familiarisation and learning workshops and e-learning
support – watch this space!
Worked examples
© UKCIP 2006
 Set up using dummy data for now; currently being
reviewed – will be updated once real data is available
© UKCIP 2006
UKCIP and UKCIP08

UKCIP is the UK Climate Impacts Programme
www.ukcip.org.uk

UKCIP08 are the climate scenarios, published by
UKCIP

More information is available at UKCIP’s Scenarios
Gateway www.ukcip08.net

UKCIP08 will be launched in the Spring
© UKCIP 2006
Rainfall and rain days 1971-2000
© UKCIP 2006
Trend in total rainfall 1961-2006
© UKCIP 2006
Trend in rain days 1961-2006
© UKCIP 2006
Mean temperature
1971-90 mean
1961-2000 rise
© UKCIP 2006
Impacts in Scotland
•
Not all negative – some opportunities
•
Opportunities may need work to be realised
•
Impacts being discovered now
•
Persisting uncertainties
•
Reactive adaptation pathways needed
Mitigation
Human
Beings
Causation
Impacts
© UKCIP 2006
Adaptation
Climate
Change
Climate change responses
Response:
Mitigate
Adapt
Resembles:
Public health
Medical treatment
Benefit:
Global, deferred
Local, immediate
Concept:
Easy
Hard
Increases
Eases
© UKCIP 2006
Slope:
Not alternatives!
© UKCIP 2006
Balanced responses
1.
The climate change we expect in the next 30-40
years will be due to our past greenhouse gas
emissions.
2.
Climate change later this century is being
determined by the emissions we allow now.
3.
We need to alter our way of life so that we can
both:
•
adapt to the changes that are already in the
climate system….
•
limit our future greenhouse gas emissions.
© UKCIP 2006
Need for a balance between….
Mitigation
&
Adaptation
Present vulnerability
&
Future impacts
Changes in extremes
&
Steady climate change
Climate information
&
System information
“predict, optimise, relax”
&
“assess, hedge, review”
© UKCIP 2006
Present Climate
•
Are we well-adapted to the present?
•
Is perfect adaptation possible? – desirable?
•
Do we manage present climate risks adequately?
•
Part of adapting to climate change is managing the
extremes of the present climate
Do we notice the weather?
Yes
Farmers
Sailors
© UKCIP 2006
Operators
No
Boards
Directors
Finance Officers
“predict, optimise, relax” *
 Focus on Climate Change – assumes “today” is OK
 Led by physical science model developers
 Uncertainty remains a barrier to decision-making
 Climate remains a separate issue
© UKCIP 2006
 Decision-makers will always need better data
* Thanks to Lenny Smith
“assess, hedge, review” *
 Focus on Climate Risks –assumes “today” needs attention
 Led by decision-makers
 Assess and manage current risks, then turn to future
 Uncertainty is made explicit and addressed
 Climate easier to mainstream into everyday
© UKCIP 2006
 Immediate benefits to “day job”
* Thanks to Lenny Smith
© UKCIP 2006
Sustainability
1.
Include the hard to cost impacts of what you do to
the environment in your plans
2.
Be kind to the environment – you may need it one
day
3.
Address the needs of today while at the same time
not compromising the needs of tomorrow
4.
Keep on doing business despite the environment’s
impacts on what you do
5.
The environment, through climate change, has
the power to shut you down – deal with it!
Sustainable Adaptation
Don’t transfer risk to:
Others in society
The natural environment
© UKCIP 2006
The future
Adaptation in Government
Research on Impacts and Adaptation is funded by
Defra (CEOSA) on behalf of Devolved Administrations.
Defra’s new Adapting to Climate Change Programme
(ACC) deals with policy – remit covers only England.
UKCIP budget comes from both these sources.
© UKCIP 2006
Some of CEOSA has moved to DECC, but domestic
adaptation research will join ACC within Defra
Private Finance and Climate Risk
•
PFI is intended to shift financial risk to private
© UKCIP 2006
sector (better at managing it?)
•
PFI contracts will see significant climate change.
•
PFI can be a mechanism for managing climate risk.
•
BUT risks must be identified, assigned, and costed.
•
Public sector failure? business opportunity?
© UKCIP 2006
www.ukcip.org.uk