Transcript Please amend title

Climate Change: the
challenges for Farming
and Forestry
Robin Mortimer
Director of Climate Change, Air Quality, Landscape
and Rural Affairs.
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Contents
1. Background
2. Scale of challenge: Mitigation and Adaptation
3. Defra’s Plan
4. Partnership with AONBs
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Climate science: Global Surface Temperature
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Climate science: What’s causing the rise?
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Climate change: Who does what in HMG?
DECC – lead on mitigation policy
(tackling the cause - greenhouse gas emissions)
Defra – Leads on adaptation policy
(dealing with consequences of a changing climate)
DfID – support adaptation and mitigation
programmes overseas
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1. Background
2. Scale of challenge: Mitigation and Adaptation
3. Defra’s Plan
4. Partnership with AONBs
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Scale of UK challenge: 80% cut in emissions
•Defra is responsible for the majority of non-CO2 Greenhouse Gases.
•The Climate Change Act 2008 and the Low Carbon Transition Plan 2009 established the
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Departmental Carbon Budget framework
to cut emissions on the scale shown here.
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Scale of UK Challenge - agriculture and waste
If we achieve Low
Carbon Transition
Plan commitments
Historical
If agriculture
stays at 2020
levels
Agriculture
& waste
If waste
reduces 90%
from 1990
14%
1990
11%
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2006
12%
30%
2020
2050
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Scale of UK Challenge: a changing climate
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Scale of Challenge - UKCP09
South West in 2050s
(Medium Emissions Scenario)
Drier
Summer rainfall about 10-30% less
Warmer
Mean summer
temperatures about
2 degrees warmer
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Scale of Challenge UKCP09
South West 2080s (10%
probability – high scenario)
Much drier
Summer rainfall about 50-70% less
Much warmer
Mean summer
temperatures about 6-8
degrees warmer
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1. Background
2. Scale of challenge: Mitigation and Adaptation
3. Defra’s Plan
4. Partnership with AONBs
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Defra Carbon Budget Plan: Cutting agricultural
emissions
• Voluntary Action Plan agreed with farming
industry to deliver 3MTCO2e cost-saving
emissions savings per annum by 2020 (x% cut).
• Looking at options for further Government action
if this is not on track by 2012.
• Opportunities for farmers in renewables and bio-
energy
• Beyond 2020 – tough choices
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Defra Adaptation Plan – Agriculture
• Agriculture occupies 75% of UK land and is among
the first to feel effects of climate change
• Opportunities: reduced frost; longer growing
seasons and/or new crops/livestock species
• Risks: linked to more extreme and variable weather
(storms, flooding, water scarcity/drought, heat
stress, increased water pollution); new/more
pests/diseases; variability in yield; need to change
crops
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• Defra role to support
industry in response
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Defra Carbon Budget Plan: Forestry
•The Read Report shows that Woodland creation
provides highly cost-effective abatement.
•10,000 ha more woodland each year for 15 years
would make major contribution – if continued to 2050
just 1-2% more land for woodland.
•Looking at options to incentivise additional
investment in woodland.
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Defra Adaptation Plan: Forestry
• Managing Risks -The interaction of climate change
and tree pest and disease outbreaks is of concern.
New pests and diseases may establish and existing
ones become more aggressive (e.g. oak
processionary moth,Phytophthora).
• Wider benefits – ecosystem benefits of trees and
woodland support wider adaptation strategy –
biodiversity, flood management, urban cooling,
space for recreation
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Defra Adaptation Plan: Landscape
• Climate change will affect many aspects of our
cherished landscapes in the coming decades
• Impacts through changes in flora and fauna and human
responses to climate change.
• Need to have an honest debate about how best we
should manage these and other pressures to deliver
maximum range of services for people and the
environment: but avoiding change is not an option
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Illustrative farmed landscape
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1. Background
2. Scale of challenge: Mitigation and Adaptation
3. Defra’s Plan
4. Partnership with AONBs
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Defra and AONB Partnership
•
Defra, National Parks, AONBs and Natural
England are working closely together on 2 year
climate change Project.
•
Defra welcomes the Cotswolds Research Project
on the Future of Farming and Forestry.
•
We need an ongoing partnership to respond to
change.
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