Transcript Document

Case Study 6: Agricultural Research – use
and needs of climate services
By
Anil Sinha, CARDI
and
Muhammad Ibrahim IICA
Presented at
National Consultation on a Framework for Climate Services in Belize
30th October to 1st November 2013
Radisson Hotel, Fort George, Belize City
Contents of Presentation
•
•
•
•
•
Introduction
Present challenges of existing climate services
Uses of climate services
Variability in Precipitation
Current activities under agricultural research in
the Caribbean which uses climate services
• Needs of climate services in agricultural research
• Conclusion
National Consultation on a Framework for Climate Services in Belize
Introduction
• Caribbean countries including Belize are particularly vulnerable to the
effects of tropical cyclones and increasingly unseasonal adverse weatherrelated impacts such as heavy rainfall and droughts.
• This is particularly critical for the Agriculture sector due to its important
role in food security and sovereignty and contribution to employment,
foreign exchange earnings and rural development in the Region.
• Accurate and timely availability of predictable climate services would
greatly contribute to reduced risks and maximised opportunities
associated with climate.
• Trends in increasing atmospheric CO₂ will likely increase global yields but
trends in increasing temperature are likely to reduce global yields – how
important will climate change and CO₂ be shaping future crop yields at the
global scale.
• Heat stress and water stress during the critical reproductive period could
lead to sterility, lower yields and the risk of complete crop failure.
National Consultation on a Framework for Climate Services in Belize
Introduction
• Higher temperature causes faster crop development
and thus shorter crop duration, which is associated
with lower yields.
• Higher temperature, along with higher atmospheric
CO₂ may favour the growth and survival of many
insect pests and diseases to agricultural crops.
• Climate services are related to:
Climate variability, and
Climate change which is more long term and
the needs will be different
National Consultation on a Framework for Climate Services in Belize
Introduction
The chief climate hazards that affect agricultural
production in the Caribbean are:
•Severe weather events, such as, tropical storms
and hurricanes
•High rainfall variability, droughts, floods;
•Temperature increases, humidity; and
•Saline intrusion as a result of sea level rise.
National Consultation on a Framework for Climate Services in Belize
Present Challenges of existing Climate Services
• Climate data is too coarse and not representative
of agro-ecological conditions- need to look at
spatial distributions of agromet stations
• Lack of confidence in data especially in short- and
long-term predictability
• Short time window where information is
provided
• Data limited to tempertaure and rainfall
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Uses of Climate Services in Agricultural
Research
• To determine Climate Variability and Impacts on
Productivity of crops
• Crop Modelling: Assessing Crop Production, Nutrient
Management, Climate Risk and Environmental
Sustainability with Simulation Models
• Crop Simulation Models for evaluation and selection of
climate resilient characteristics
• Application of Agrometeorological Model to Crop
Protection
• Forecasting and mapping of spatial and temporal
patterns of pest and diseases
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Variability in Precipitation: Seasonal Precipitation Data Recorded at
Central Farm, Cayo District - May to October
300
250
Precipitation in mm
200
2011
150
2012
2013
Av. 2005-2010
100
50
0
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sept
Oct
Month
National Consultation on a Framework for Climate Services in Belize
Variability in Precipitation: Seasonal Precipitation Data Recorded at Central Farm,
Cayo District - November to December
200
180
160
Precipitation in mm
140
120
2010-2011
100
2011-2012
2011-2013
80
Av. 2005-2010
60
40
20
0
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
Months
National Consultation on a Framework for Climate Services in Belize
Variability in Precipitation: Decadal precipitation recorded at
Central Farm, Cayo District, Belize
160
140
Precipitation in mm
120
↓
↓
100
2011
80
2012
Av. 2005-2010
60
40
20
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36
Decades
National Consultation on a Framework for Climate Services in Belize
Current Activities of Agricultural Research in the Caribbean
which uses Climate Services
• Crop modelling and irrigation scheduling (Crop simulation
Modelling) – Availability of Spatial and temporal scale weather data.
• Weather related forecasting model for the management of insect
pests and diseases – Availability of long period hourly weather data
including leaf wetness.
• Introduction of indigenous and other breeds of cattle, pigs, goats
and poultry that are heat tolerant and more feed efficient for meat,
milk and egg production – Availability of localized temperature and
humidity.
• Development and identification of drought, flood, salt and high
temperature tolerant varieties of staple and commercial crops –
Availability of simulation methodologies which could be affordable
and adaptable.
• Effect of climate change, including extreme events, on important
economic commodities such as sugarcane, rice, cereal and grain
legumes production - Availability of landscape methodologies which
could be affordable and adaptable.
National Consultation on a Framework for Climate Services in Belize
Needs of Climate Services in Agricultural Research
Climate Variability and Impacts on Productivity of crops:
Seasonal Rainfall Prediction through analysis of long-term climatic data
and use of seasonal to inter-annual climate prediction models
Use of rainy season prediction and near-real time weather information
to support management decisions such as especially irrigation
scheduling
• Length of growing period, This is key
• Daily values of incoming solar radiation (MJ/m²-day),
• Maximum and minimum daily air temperature (ºC),
• Daily total precipitation (mm),
• dry and wet bulb temperatures and wind speed as optional data
• Evapotranspiration
• Level of CO₂
National Consultation on a Framework for Climate Services in Belize
Needs of Climate Services in Agricultural Research
Crop Modelling
The minimum data set (MDS) refers to a minimum set of data required to run
the crop models and evaluate crop model simulation and outputs. Evaluation
requires:
• Site weather data for the duration of the growing season
• Site soil profile and soil surface data
• Crop management data from the experiment
• Observed experimental data from the experiment
Weather Data
The minimum required weather data includes:
• Latitude and longitude of the weather station,
• Daily values of incoming solar radiation (MJ/m²-day),
• Maximum and minimum daily air temperature (ºC), and
• Daily total precipitation (mm).
• Dry and wet bulb temperatures and wind speed as optional data
• Long-term measurements of soil moisture
Needs of Climate Services in Agricultural Research
Weather Related Forecasting Modelling for the Management of
crop insect pests and diseases
National Consultation on a Framework for Climate Services in Belize
Needs of Climate Services in Agricultural Research
Weather Related Forecasting Modelling for the Management of crop
insect pests and diseases
National Consultation on a Framework for Climate Services in Belize
Needs of Climate Services in Agricultural Research
Weather Related Forecasting Modelling for the
Management of crop insect pests and diseases
Crop data: Phenological development, Growth, Leaf area and Variety
Insect pest and pathogen: Disease intensity and severity, Pest population
Weather Data Required (hourly for ten or more
years)
• Precipitation
• Temperature
• Sunshine/cloudiness
• Relative humidity
• Leaf wetness
• Wind direction and speed
National Consultation on a Framework for Climate Services in Belize
Needs of Climate Services in Agricultural Research
Crop Simulation Models
Weather data
• Daily minimum and maximum temperatures
during the growth period
• Soil temperature and moisture
• Precipitation
• Solar radiation
• Evapotranspiration
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Needs of Climate Services in Agricultural Research
Agro-ecological Zoning
Characterize geographic areas based on
• Climate
• Soil
• Biological (length of growing period)and Yield
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Needs of Climate Services in Agricultural Research
Livestock Research
• Length of growing period: Rainfall patterns, temporal variations for
selection of pastures (grasses and
legumes)
conservation of forages
water supply for animals
control of insect pests, diseases and
weeds.
• Temperature and humidity:
Developing and/or selection of heat tolerant breeds
Developing breeds for increase water use efficiency
National Consultation on a Framework for Climate Services in Belize
Conclusion
Developing production models using climate services
requires:
•Weather data - daily maximum and minimum
temperature, precipitation, solar radiation, Soil moisture
index.
•Soil data - soil surface information (slope, color,
permeability, drainage, stones); Soil profile
information(water holding characteristics, nitrogen,
organic matter, phosphorus).
•Crop management – crop, cultivar, planting date, row
and plant spacing, irrigation (dates and amount), fertilizer
(dates, amount and type), other applications (chemical)
and operations (tillage).
National Consultation on a Framework for Climate Services in Belize
Conclusion
• Crop measurements: Yield and yield components
(biomass, seed number, seed size, etc.); Phenology
(Dates of flowering (50%), physiological maturity,
harvest maturity, first seed, etc.).
• Crop measurements - Growth analysis using Biomass
components (leaf, stem, seeds/grains, etc.) at regular
time intervals.
• Soil measurements - Soil moisture at different depths
over time; Soil nitrogen/carbon/phosphorus at
different depths over time;
National Consultation on a Framework for Climate Services in Belize
Conclusion
• Capacity building in interpretation of weather
and climate forecast and correlate with
agricultural production
• Capacity building in using and maintenance
various weather related equipment (auto) and
sensors (leaf wetness sensor)
National Consultation on a Framework for Climate Services in Belize
Conclusion
Reiterating…. Sustaining the activity may hinge
upon continued dialogue and collaboration
between the four core groups – Meteorologist,
Research Officer, Extension Officer, Farmer…
National Committees to oversee
We have a long way to go!!
National Consultation on a Framework for Climate Services in Belize
Thank you
National Consultation on a Framework for Climate Services in Belize