Transcript Models for Adaptive Forest Management

MOTIVE
Models for Adaptive Forest
Management
addressing the call FP7-ENV-2008-1 and the topic ENV.2.1.6.1 Development of
adaptive forest management models. MOTIVE is a large-scale integrating
project (project number 226544).
The project
 Large scale integrated project
 In the 7th Framework programme of the EU
 MOTIVE investigates adaptive management strategies that address
climate and land use change. It also examines the impacts of these
changes with respect to a broad range of forest goods and services.
 Coordinated by Forest Research Institute of Baden-Württemberg
 Project Co-ordinator: Prof. Dr. Marc Hanewinkel
20.7.2015
2
Objectives
To provide insights, data and tools to improve policymaking and
adaptive forest resource management under climate change
 Integrated assessment of forest management strategies
 A comparative assessment across a wide range of climatic
and socio-economic conditions
 Influence of feedback loops from socio-economy and policy
making on resource management
 Translate scientific state of knowledge into decision support
for policy makers and forest practitioners
Scientific work packages
data
Baseline trends and possible futures for the EU (WP2)
Development of improved models for adaptive forest
management (WP3)
Testing & evaluating management options and risks (WP4)
Evaluating and selecting good adaptive forest
management strategies (WP5)
Improved decision support in adaptive forest
management (WP6)
methods
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Project implementation
Case studies
Two cases per each of five bioclimatic zones and one for the EU
Trends
(WP2)
Models
(WP3)
Options
and
risks
(WP4)
Strategies
(WP5)
Coordination (WP1)
Decision
support
(WP6)
Communi
cation
(WP7)
Regional case studies
Boreal
Kronoberg
Boreal
North Karelia
Temperate
Atlantic
Wales
Continental - Mountainous
Carpathian Mountains
Temperate
Atlantic
SE Veluwe
Temperate Central - Mountainous
Montafon Valley
Mediterranean
Chamusca
Mediterranean
Catalonia
Continental - Mediterranean
Panagiurishte
Temperate Central
Black Forest
Case study information 1/3
Region
The main risks Goods and services Adaptation options
North Boreal
North Karelian,
Finland
wind and
snow
timber
biomass for energy
South Boreal
Kronoberg, Sweden
wind
timber
nature conservation -
Temperate Atlantic
Wales, UK
wind
timber
pest outbreaks recreation
-
-
Northern Plain
Atlantic
SE Veluwe,
Netherlands
drought
fire
timber
nature conservation -
species preference
type and intensity of
thinning
rotation length
rotation length
use of deciduous tree
species
low-impact silvicultural
systems
tree mixtures
different tree species
dense forest
Case study information 2/3
Region
The main risks Goods and services
Adaptation options
Central Temperate
Black Forest,
Germany
timber
biomass for energy
recreation
-
shift of species
close to nature
management
Central Alpine
Montafon Valley,
Austria
pest
outbreaks
wind
drought
wind
pest
outbreaks
-
shift of species
silvicultural regimes
Mediterranean
Prades, Spain
drought
fire
timber
biomass for energy
carbon
nature conservation
recreation
water protection
nature conservation
recreation, timber
-
forest fire prevention
thinning alternatives
Mediterranean
Atlantic
Chamusca, Portugal
drought
fire
water protection
timber
-
management
alternatives
Case study information 3/3
Region
The main risks
Goods and services
Adaptation options
Continental
Mediterranean
Panagyurishte,
Bulgaria
Continental
mountainous
Carpathians,
Romania
European
drought
fire
timber
biomass for energy
water protection
recreation
timber
biomass for energy
carbon
-
drought
pest
outbreaks
drought
wind
fire
pest
outbreaks
-
timber
biomass for energy carbon
nature conservation
transformation from
coppice stands into high
stands
species control
thinning intensity
rotation length
introducing new species
adapt the forest
management aims
The Consortium
First results and impacts of MOTIVE
Climate change impacts on Net Primary
Productivity (NPP)
•
Until 2050 most regions
throughout Europe show
minor increases in NPP, but
locally and in the Southwest
NPP declines due to
increased summer drought
•
Change in NPP (g C m-2 a-1) by 2050
A2 scenario
-200
20.7.2015
0
600
Avg. ΔNPP [g C m-2 a-1]
Future suitability and yields of the sites
for Douglas fir in Wales
1961-1990 baseline
2080 B2 low emissions
Ray and Nicoll, 2011
2080 B2 low emissions
2080 A1F1 high emissions
Testing and evaluating management options and risks
Norw. spruce
Douglas fir
Shannon's H
Stand maturity index
Temperli, Elkin, Bugmann, 2011.
0
Provision of timber cannot
be maintained without
management changes
Europ. beech
Sessile oak
Harvested biomass
Index
Declining
Norway spruce
biomass under
an intermediate
climate change
scenario & unchanged
even-aged Norway
spruce management
Live biomass
[t/ha]
1 0
200
Black Forest, Germany
2000
2050
2100
Management influences fire risk in Southern Europe
(Catalonian case study)
0,035
BA =20m2/ha
dg=30cm
Decreasing fire
occurrence
probability with
reduced basal
area (BA) and
larger average
diameter (dg).
C. Gracia, 2011
Annual Fire Pocurr
0,030
0,025
BA =20m2/ha
dg=10cm
0,020
BA =40m2/ha
dg=10cm
0,015
0,010
0,005
0,000
0
0,5
1
1,5
Aridity index Pannual/ETPannual
2
Models to support adaptive forest management –
first results


Effect of intense thinning carried out in 1992 in reducing mortality
during the drought of 1994.
Thinning alleviates drought stress and reduces fire risk in Catalonian
forests.
1992
20.7.2015
1994
Challenges facing forest managers and the approaches
science may take to support decisions
ENow(Climate)
Now
Forward-looking
-adaptive manager
Trend-adaptive
manager
Re-active manager
Observed change
No change manager
time
Bredahl-Jacobsen et al. 2010
Improved decision support in adaptive management –
MOTIVE toolbox for adaptive forest management
The Ecosystem
Service Assessment
tool within the MOTIVE
toolbox for adaptive
forest management.
The appraisal is based
on forest structure and
composition, stakeholder
preferences, and landscape
features (e.g. a
digital terrain model).
Maroschek, Rammer, Lexer, 2011.
The awareness of forest owners and practitioners is
critical for implementation of adaptation to climate
change
More about MOTIVE and topic
Web page of the project:
www.motive-project.net
Discussion forum:
Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation in European Forestry
www.linkedin.com/groups?about=&gid=2895718