Transcript Update on Wales’ Climate Change Strategy

Update on Wales’ Climate
Change Strategy
Andy Fraser
Head – Climate Change Policy
Climate Change & Water Division
In this presentation…
• Targets and commitments
• Wales’ Climate Change Strategy
• Links to UK climate change policy development
• UK Climate projections
• Next steps
Welsh Assembly’s targets and
commitments
• Strong commitment in ‘One Wales’
• We will aim to achieve annual carbon
reduction-equivalent emissions
reductions of 3% per year by 2011 in
areas of devolved competence. We will
set out specific sectoral targets in
relation to residential, public and
transport areas. We will work with the
heavy industry/power generation
industries to reduce emissions in those
sectors
• Also clear UK, EU and international
targets
The 3% target
• Proposed approach set out in earlier
consultation
• In summary:
– Includes all greenhouse gases
– Covers all ‘direct’ emissions (except
those from heavy industry and
power generation) and electricity
consumption emissions
– Baseline will be an average of
emissions in 2006 - 2010
Sector targets
• Proposed approach set out in current
consultation, the Programme of Action
• Intend to set a minimum contribution to
emission reductions over a ten-year period:
– Transport - emissions to stabilise and then
start to decline over ten years
– Residential - building on the existing
downward trajectory continuing year on
year reduction over the next ten years
– Public sector – we expect every part of the
public sector in Wales to be working
towards 3% annual reductions in the
greenhouse gas emissions for which they
are responsible
UK targets
• Through the Kyoto Protocol, the UK is
committed to reducing its greenhouse
emissions by 12.5 per cent over the
period 2008 – 2012 against a 1990
baseline
• Through the Climate Change Act, it is
committed to:
– Reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 80%
by 2050 against a 1990 baseline
– To reduction greenhouse gas emissions by
at least 34% by 2020 against a 1990
baseline
– To establish, via secondary legislation,
carbon budgets, on aggregate greenhouse
gas emissions over five year periods
EU targets
• Through the Climate and Energy package:
– To reduce the EU’s overall emissions to at least
20% below 1990 levels by 2020 (and to scale up
this reduction to as much as 30% under a new
global climate change agreement)
– It has also set itself the target of increasing the
share of renewables in energy use to 20% by
2020 and to raise energy efficiency by 20% by
2020
Wales’ Climate Change Strategy – phase one
• High Level Policy Statement
consultation
• Published in January 2009
• Set out proposed
definitions of our targets
and the broad areas for
action to tackle the causes
and consequences of
climate change
Wales’ Climate Change Strategy – phase
two
• Programme of Action consultation sets out in
more detail the proposed actions to deliver
climate change objectives and puts them in the
context of UK and EU policy and the contribution
that each sector can make
• Based on:
– Responses to first consultation
– Committee on Climate Change Report
– Contributions from Assembly Government
Departments
– Reports from Climate Change Commission for
Wales Sub Groups
– Other sources including a report commissioned
from AEA on Policy options for greenhouse gas
emission reduction in Wales
Wales’ Climate Change Strategy – phase
two
Programme of Action consultation sets out 23 proposals
covering the following sectors:
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Transport
Business
Residential
Waste
Public
Agriculture and land management
The consultation also includes proposals on climate
change adaptation
Programme of Action proposals
• Proposals clustered around:
– Communication and awareness raising
– Advice, support and tools to assist people in taking
action
• Exemplify, Enable, Encourage, Engage
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Building climate change into existing funding
Factoring emissions into all policy decisions
Stipulating standards and regulation
New capital programmes
• Proposals outlined represent plans to commit £300
million by all Ministers and across all departments
within the Welsh Assembly Government to contribute
to tackling climate change
Committee on Climate Change report
• Macro analysis of abatement potential and costs
• Focus is scale of potential savings and the type of interventions
that might help secure them – not detailed policy
recommendations
• Key areas with abatement potential:
– Energy efficiency improvements in buildings and industry –
measures such as loft and cavity wall insulation, turning
appliances off and using less air conditioning, and which will
be particularly important for reducing emissions in the
period to 2020
– Decarbonisation of the power sector – starting now and
continuing through the 2020s, based on replacing existing
conventional fossil fuel fired plants with renewable, nuclear
and carbon capture and storage (CCS) technologies
Committee on Climate Change report cont.
• Transport sector decarbonisation – first through improving fuel
efficiency of conventional engines and increased use of
sustainable first generation biofuels, with progressive
introduction of new technologies such as electric cars, plug-in
hybrids and hydrogen vehicles, and second generation biofuels.
• Heat sector decarbonisation – through increased use of biomass
in boilers and CHP, air exchange and ground source heat pumps,
and modern electric storage heating.
• Decarbonisation of industry – through the introduction of new
technologies such as CCS in cement, iron and steel.
Links to climate change policy
• Considerable activity to implement the Climate Change Act and
bring forward policies and proposals aimed at meeting the targets
and budgets
• Preparation for decision on level of first three carbon budgets and
related issues – informed by the advice of the Committee on
Climate Change and the responses from the devolved
administrations
• Consultation recently closed on Energy Efficiency and Heat
Savings, Community Energy Saving Programme and CERT+
• Development of report setting out policies and programmes to
meet the budgets (required by the Climate Change Act)
• Assembly Government liaising closely to maximise the benefits of
our respective policies and programmes
UK Climate Change Projections (UKCP09)
• Key findings for Wales (based on ‘medium
emissions’ scenario):
– Across Wales by 2050, average annual
temperatures are projected to increase by
2.3°C
– In summer, daily maximum temperatures are
projected to increase by 3.4 °C
– In winter, daily minimum temperatures are
projected to increase by 2.5 °C
– Rainfall is projected to increase in winter on
average by 14% and decrease in summer by
16%.
• Overall the total annual average rainfall in
predicted to remain the same.
– Sea levels around Wales are predicted to rise
by approximately 20 cm by 2050.
UK Climate Change Projections (UKCP09): the
impacts
• The impacts that can be expected from these
changes to Wales’ climate are:
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Hotter and drier summers
Increase in extremely hot days
Milder wetter winters
Reduction in snowfall and frost
Increase in frequency of intense rainfall
Decrease in groundwater levels
Increased flooding of low-lying coastal areas
UKCP09: the consequences
• Hotter drier summers
– Increased thermal discomfort in buildings
– Greater demand for air conditioning
– Increased human health problems in the summer
• Temperature
• Air pollution
– Water shortages more commonplace
– Animal health and disease
• Milder winters
– Reduction in number and severity of frosts
• Longer growing seasons
– Reduced demand for winter heating
• But potential for cold snaps
UKCP09: the consequences
• Flood risk
– Increased river and urban flooding
– Increased coastal erosion
– Increased pressure on sewerage systems
• Biodiversity
– Impact on Wales’ ecosystems following changes in
temperature and rainfall profiles
• Loss or migration of climate-sensitive species
• Non-native species likely to become more widespread as
Welsh climate becomes more favourable
Next steps
• Consultation events being planned for July, August and
September to take views on the Programme of Action
proposals
• Training workshop(s) on UKCP09
• Oct – Programme of Action consultation closes
• Autumn – UK Government report on progress in meeting
the carbon budgets and targets
• Year end – final Assembly Government Climate Change
Strategy published
Update on Wales’ Climate
Change Strategy
Andy Fraser
Head – Climate Change Policy
Climate Change & Water Division
[email protected]