Transcript Ana Iglesias

Adaptation:
managing the unavoidable
Roundtable 3: Can agricultural investment
coexist with climate change policies?
Ana Iglesias
Universidad Politécnica de Madrid, Spain
EastAgri Annual Meeting 2010
Istanbul, 13-14 Oct 2010
Roundtable 3 (October 14, 900 – 1230 h)
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1 key issue can agricultural investment coexist
with climate change policies?
2 challenges
– Speak a common language
(prioritise reasons for concern)
– Improve dialogue between science, policy
and society
(define how, lessons from EU initiatives,
measures that make sense today and in
the future)
(academic point of vies, some thoughts and some examples)
2
 Reasons for concern
 Financial crisis, terror, inequality,
degradation of the environment, …
 Common element: global issues, what
happens in one place has an influence
on what happens in another place
3
Food importers are
buying agricultural land
of poor countries
Defining the baseline is difficult
4
High risk, highly
certain
Medium risk, some
uncertainty
Reasons for concern (synthesis of
global studies)
Possible opportunity,
if management is
adequate
Risks and
opportunities
Optimal crop zones
Crop productivity
Water conflict
Soil salinity and erosion
Damage by extremes
Environmental degradation
Pests and diseases
“The adaptation gap” Can optimal management
decrease vulnerability to climate?
5
Example 1
Changes in land productivity (Iglesias et al 2007; 2010)
HadCM3 A2
HadCM3 B2
We do not know
how our world
would be like in
the future
6
Complexity: need to
understand local
vulnerabilities
8
What might a low GHG diet look like?
(Source: T. Garnett, 2009)
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
Not overeating
Much less meat and dairy
Seasonal field grown foods
Not eating certain foods
Reducing dependence on cold chain
Wasting less
Efficient cooking
Redefining quality
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6 Measures with high
mitigation potential
6 Evaluation
criteria
1.
2.
3.
4.
1. Mitigation potential
2. Externalities
3. Barriers to
implementation
(tech., ec., social)
4. Interest to farmers
5. May be included in
CAP?
6. Incentives?
Catch crops
Reduced tillage
Use crop residues
Optimising
fertiliser use
5. Increase wood
crops
6. Optimal pasture
renewal
Source: PICCMAT (6th FP EU)
10
10
Example 2: Water
Additional population under extreme stress
of water shortage
Population (millions)
120
80
40
0
2020
2050
2080
University of Southampton 11
11
12
12
13
Energy consumption for seawater desalination
25
Kwh per m3
20
15
10
5
0
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985 1990
Year
1995
2000
2005
2010
14
14
Example 3: Human displacement
http://ciesin.columbia.edu/publications.html
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Improve dialogue science, policy, society
Example 4: Lessons from EU initiatives (EC White paper
on adaptation; EU funded research)
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Role of
RD (CAP)
A flexible
framework
Axis 1
Farm modernization
Restoring & prevention
Farm advisory services
Training
Axis 2
Agri-env measures
Payments linked to WFD
Axis 3
Diversification into nonagricultural activities
Leader
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natural water resources
regulation
infrastructure
Policy
non-conventional
resources
water availability
nature
Role
of
WFD
Policy
non-nature uses
Policy
essential
productive
Policy
water recycling
Source: Garrote et al., 2010
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Example 4: Evaluation (and valuation) of
policy action (Iglesias et al., 2010)
HadCM3/HIRHAM B2 scenario, 2071-2100, (% yield change)
Region
Boreal
Atlantic South
Cont. North
Alpine
Med. South
Adap.Policy
Urban / Env
(1)
Adap.Farm
(2)
Adapt.Policy
Econ /Rural Dev
(3)
25 to 30
34
35 to 40
-10 to -10
-7
-5 to 0
0 to 5
4
5 to 10
10 to 20
23
25 to 40
-50 to -25
1
0 to 20
(1) Emphasis on water resources protection and urban development
(2) Farm adaptation without policy support (private)
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(3) Emphasis on agricultural production and rural development
 Reasons for concern when we think
about climate change
 Consequences are too unequal
 Uncertainty
 Deciding on the solutions that are
appropriate (the how issue)
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thank you
[email protected]
Presentation made at the:
EastAgri Annual Meeting 2010
Istanbul, 13-14 Oct 2010
Roundtable 3 (October 14, 900 – 1230 h)
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