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CCI-HYDR - Climate change impact on hydrological extremes along rivers and urban drainage systems ADAPT – Towards an integrated tool for deciding about adaptation measures – case study: floods Follow-up committee meeting 12 November, Uccle Overview • CC scenarios • • Occurrence of low and high flows Adaptation to high flows Derivation of potential climate change scenarios for Belgium Statistical analysis of trends and cycles in rainfall, evapotranspiration and flow series Final selection climate change scenarios for Belgium • Impact modelling along rivers and urban drainage systems • • • • Flood risk modelling Identification of adaptation scenarios Modelling the effects of adaptation measures Evaluating adaptation measures CCI-HYDR ADAPT CCI-HYDR project - content CCI-HYDR project - questions Adapt – project: preliminary results Dender case • Social flood impact 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 RT100 low social impact low mean high scenario RTscenario RTscenario RT 100 100 100 medium social impact high social impact Dender case Current Low HighRT RT RT 100 100 100 Social hot spots Social risk modelling – SFI tool Exposure and flood characteristics Social flood impact Adaptive capacity Vulnerability SFI = E x Vp/Ac* * Based on Hilhorst 2004 Indicators of social flood impact Flood characteristics Indicator Threshold level Water level > 30 cm Speed of water rise Sudden: no or limited warning time Velocity > 2m/s duration > 12 hours Data Ourthe: HACH Dender: CCI-Hydr Indicators of social flood impact • Exposure – Location of houses by means of Cadmap and land use maps Indicators of social flood impact Vulnerability of people indicator Age data Proportion > 75y NIS Financial situation NIS Health status Health survey: Not available at district level Family structure Proportion lone parents NIS Nationality Proportion non-belgian nationality (strata 3) NIS Property type Proportion people in one-storey houses To be calculated Nationality Proportion non-belgian nationality (strata 3) NIS Indicators of social flood impact Adaptive capacity of society – Non-technical measures – Availability or resources and distribution across the population – Institutional structure – Human capital – Social capital – Risk spreading processes – Information – Perception of people Data gathered by interviews, policy documents and media Social risk modelling • Weighting – Flood characteristics: water level is most important – Vulnerability: equal weights – Adaptive capacity: equal weights • State of affairs – Flood characteristics: in progress – Vulnerability: finalized – Adaptive capacity: in progress Social flood impact knowledge table High risk area: most severe social flood impacts Medium risk area: social flood impacts can be severe, but less severe than in red cases Low risk area: less severe social flood impacts GIS output Flood map Vulnerability Adaptive capacity Buildings Social impact map Output: number of affected people per impact categorie 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 RT100 low social impact low mean high scenario RTscenario RTscenario RT 100 100 100 medium social impact high social impact Geraardsbergen and Ninove Scenarios • What is a scenario? – An image of the future that are neither predictions nor forecasts but an alternative image of how the future might unfold. (Nakicenovic et al. 2000) • Why using scenarios? – Taking socio-economic change into account – To deal with uncertainty – To raise awareness Socio-economic scenarios • Lieven aanvullen? • Narrative storylines: IPCC – Containing key elements of socio-economic change • • • • • Technology Governance Social and political values Demography Economy • Estimating parameters (data?) – Ecological vulnerability – Social vulnerability – Economic vulnerability Stakeholder participation • Who? – Decisionmakers at all levels, experts, water managers, interest groups and citizens • Why? – Increase social support – Take into accounts stakeholder knowledge • How in the Adapt project? – Which measures are feasible in the area? (interviews with water managers) – Which measures are acceptable? (interviews with decisionmakers, public officers, experts and focus groups with interest groups and citizens) – Which criteria are most preferred? (interviews) ADAPT project - questions