Transcript 地球温暖化と経済学 Global Warming and Economics

Global Warming, Economics and
Christian Ethics
Timothy D. Boyle
Economics Department,
Kwansei Gakuin University
Aims Of This Presentation
1. The Environment and Christian ethics
2. Setting the Stage: The Earth’s Design
3. Mechanisms of Global Warming
4. Is Anthropogenic Climate Change Real?
5. Possible Solutions and Economic Implications
Part 1
The Environment and Christian ethics
• “Rule over … every living creature…” Gen. 1:28
• The LORD God took the man and put him in the
Garden of Eden to work it and take care of it.
Gen 2:15
• For six years sow your fields… . But in the
seventh year the land is to have a sabbath of
rest… . The land is to have a year of rest.
Lev. 25:3-5
• The Bible teaches that God entrusted the
earth’s resources to humans, and it is our
responsibility to use them wisely.
Part 2
Setting the Stage
Formation of the Solar
System 4.6 Billion
Years Ago
The Early Earth and the
Formation of the Moon
Without the moon, life on
earth would be impossible.
(4 minute video clip)
Without the moon formation event,
the earth would be like Venus
Atmosphere is 96.5% CO2
with a pressure about 93
times that of earth
Surface temperature: 467ﾟC
Transformations of the Atmosphere
Much thinner than the original atmosphere
An atmosphere that allowed a stable water cycle
An atmosphere protected by a
strong magnetic field
An atmospheric makeup transformed by life activities
Factors Necessary for a Life-Support Planet
Factors relative to the entire universe (more than 30) Example:
Ratio of the strengths of the gravitational force and the electromagnetic force must
be fine-tuned to better than 1 part in 1040 (1040 = 10,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,
000,000,000,000,000,000).
Parameters of the galaxy and parent star (several dozen)
Planetary factors, such as mass, chemical makeup,
distance from parent star, etc. (more than 100)
More than 200 fine-tuned factors.
Factors Necessary for a Life-Support Planet (2)
Timing of life development vis a vis luminosity
increase of parent star.
The “Greenhouse effect” was necessary to
keep earth warm enough for life. But it had to
be gradually reduced to keep earth from
getting too hot due to increasing solar
luminosity.
Part 3
Mechanisms of Global Warming
Without “greenhouse gases,”
earth would be 33ﾟC cooler.
Atmospheric
Transmission and
Absorption
of Radiant
Energy
Natural Causes for Climate Variation
Milankovitch
Cycles
History of Eccentricity,
Tilt, and Precession
Important Climate Oscillations
Orbital factors
Milankovitch Cycles
Oceanic
Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC)
Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO)
Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO)
El Niño – La Niña - Southern Oscillation (ENSO)
Atmospheric
North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)
Arctic Oscillation (AO)
Pacific-North American Teleconnection (PNA)
Antarctic Oscillation
Solar
11-Year Solar Cycle (Sunspots)
Long-Term Solar Cycles (70-90, 500 years +)
Variable Solar Irradiance
Atlantic
Multidecadal
Oscillation in
Ocean
Currents
Have Huge
Effect on
Climate
Arctic Oscillation
In Negative Phase, cold air more likely to flow into
Japan, the Eastern United States and Europe
Positive Phase
Negative Phase
Solar Activity
Almost all of the energy that drives the climate
comes from solar radiation.
The Effect of Aerosols
Depending on type and distribution, aerosols can
have either a warming or cooling effect.
Even Cosmic Rays Affect the Climate
Reduced Flux of
Cosmic Rays
Contributes to
Global Warming
Part 4
Is Anthropogenic Climate Change Real?
 Powerful
vested interests
and agendas
 Conflicting
Scientific
Claims
As Reported in the Washington Post
 The Arctic ocean is warming up, icebergs are growing
scarcer and in some places the seals are finding the
water too hot, according to a report to the Commerce
Department yesterday from Consul Ifft, at Bergen,
Norway. Reports from fishermen, seal hunters and
explorers, he declared, all point to a radical change in
climate conditions and hitherto unheard-of temperatures
in the Arctic zone. Exploration expeditions report that
scarcely any ice has been met with as far north as 81
degrees 29 minutes. Soundings to a depth of 3,100
meters showed the gulf stream still very warm. Great
masses of ice have been replaced by moraines of earth
and stones, the report continued, while at many points
well known glaciers have entirely disappeared. Very few
seals and no white fish are found in the eastern Arctic,
while vast shoals of herring and smelts, which have never
before ventured so far north, are being encountered in
the old seal fishing grounds.
The Date of
the Report?
November
1922!
The Climate Is Always Changing
The debate is about how much
is from natural causes and how
much is man-made and what
can and should be done about it.
According to Al Gore and some members
of the IPCC, we must take drastic action
to save the planet!
On the other hand, some scientists deny any
significant, human-caused climate change.
(DVD clips from documentary “Not Evil, Just
Wrong: The True Cost of Global Warming
Hysteria”)
How important really is CO2?
Essentially all of the radiant energy that
can be absorbed by CO2 is absorbed in
the first 1000m. Increasing CO2 levels
only increases absorption
logarithmically.
Methane also important
Greenhouse gas
Much easier to reduce than CO2
Methane Sources:
Rice paddies 22%
Marshes 21%
Cattle 15%
Natural gas 9%
Landfills 8%
Carbon Soot
 Carbon
soot is estimated to have 3
times the effect of CO2 on artic
climate, and 80% of that is
anthropogenic.
 Himalayan glaciers have been
retreating in recent years, but 90%
of the cause is carbon soot and
aerosols in the air.
Many areas depend on glacial melt for
much of their water
IPCC had to retract its 2007 claim that
Himalayan glaciers would disappear by
2035
Part 5
Possible Solutions and Economic
Implications
 Role of CO2 greatly overestimated
 Relative ease with which factors other
than CO2 can be addressed
 Cost of proposed “solutions” to
economy
 Huge opportunity to develop new
technologies
Need for economic justice
 Forcing large cuts in CO2 emissions will
drastically increase energy costs
 While it will affect everybody, the poor will
suffer the most.
Human-centered Solutions
Helping people in developing countries
recover their own environment.
Saving Himalayan glaciers by reducing
soot in air: Clean cooking stoves.
Desertification in Africa and Central Asia
◊ Getting out of the vicious cycle of desertification
◊ Providing cooking stoves and fuel
◊ Reforestation would provide a carbon sink
“Fertilizing” the Ocean
• Sea plankton absorbs more CO2 than any
other carbon sink
• Sperm whale excrement is best fertilizer
• Possibility of artificially adding iron to
seawater
Opportunity For Japanese Leadership
Even without the issue of CO2 emissions, the
age of fossil fuels is coming to an end.
Need for new technologies
Conclusions (1)
 Global Warming (and cooling) is a naturally occurring
cyclical phenomenon with a relatively small
anthropogenic factor added on.
 CO2 reduction is grossly overemphasized, and so we
should use our remaining fossil fuel wisely for the
economic wellbeing of all.
 Efforts do need to be made to reduce CO2 emissions
where feasible, but also to increase CO2 absorption,
which is likely more effective.
Conclusions (2)
 Opportunity for moral and technological
contribution to solving manmade climate
change
 From standpoint of Christian ethics, solutions
must give priority to human welfare
 It is our responsibility to return to the
principle that God has entrusted earth’s
resources to us to manage wisely for human
benefit