Transcript Presentation Title, Arial Regular 29pt Sub title, Arial

Climate change and forestry
Sustainable Agriculture Flagship
Michael Battaglia, Jody Bruce, Don White, Libby
Pinkard, Phil Polglase
Sustainable agriculture
Forests are central to ecosystem goods and services valued by
society
Climate change
- Rainfall,
- Temperature
- CO2
- VPD, frost etc
WATER
Rain
Water use
Vegetation
Droughts
Bushfires
Pests and diseases
Evapotranspiration
Runoff
PRODUCTS
CARBON
BIODIVERSITY
CO2
Productivity
Respiration
Organic matter
mineralisation
Pests
Evapotranspiration
Phenology
Frost
Productivity
Mortality
Wood properties
Fire risk
Erosion
Weeds
Water resources
Productivity / allocation
Water use efficiency
Pests
Frost sensitivity?
Wood properties
Cyclone
damage
Changes in global timber trade
Changes in societal resource
and land allocation
By 2050, the percent change in the number of days with Very
High or Extreme fire weather are:
• Number of ‘Very High’ fire danger days:
+20-100%
• Number of ‘Extreme’ fire danger days:
+100-300%
Lucas et al., 2007
Regional forest carbon stocks and fire impacts
Every 1 mill ha of southern forest burnt = 10-20% of Australia's total emissions?
…offset by regrowth
Large emission of CO2 …
from a previous fire
Carbon
Stock
(Mt)
‘mature’ fire
forest
regrowth
Time (years)
After Polglase pers. comm
Regional forest carbon stocks and fire impacts
Long-term decrease in carbon stock
(net emission of CO2)
Carbon
Stock
(Mt)
‘mature’ fire
forest
regrowth
Time (years)
Forest fires and water supply
Wildfires in 1939 have decreased stream flows to Melbourne by about 300
GL per year (40%) due to increased forest water use in just 65,000 ha of
regenerating forest.
500 mm x 65,000 ha
= 325 GL
2009
Kuczera, 1987
• No mortality
Relative to 1980 growth
% change
• Assuming mortality
Relative to 1980 growth
% change
< -10
< -10
-9 - 0
-9 - 0
1 - 10
1 - 10
> 10
> 10
• www.fwpa.com.au/Resources/RD/Reports
Despite declining trends in rainfall forest production
has been rising
20
MAI (m3 ha-1 yr-1)
15
10
5
0
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
Planting year
Positive long-term trend in production Pinus radiata
Lieshout et al (1996)
Year
03
1/
05
1/
04
02
03
1/
02
1/
01
01
00
1/
99
1/
98
-2.5
1/
0
300 SPH
600 SPH
1200 SPH
-2.0
1/
5
00
300 SPH
600 SPH
1200 SPH
-1.5
1/
10
1/
15
-1.0
99
20
-0.5
1/
25
0.0
1/
30
98
Pre-dawn leaf water potential (MPa)
Mean Annual Increment (m 3 ha-1 yr-1)
Management can prevent drought mortality
Date
White et al. 2009 FEM 259, 33-44
These adaptations can be win-win
2500
Predicted NPV
2000
1500
1000
300 SPH
600 SPH
1200 SPH
500
0
2
4
6
Harvesting costs savings per 600 sph reduction ($/green tonne)
Mendham pers comm
8
Three ways for forests to mitigate climate change
1. Protection of existing forests
2. Establishment of new forests
(afforestation/ reforestation)
3. Bioenergy - substitution for fossil fuel use
Ranking options by quantity and barriers to
implementation
http://www.csiro.au/resources/carbon-and-rural-land-use-report
‘Prospecting’ for opportunities for carbon farming
• All areas where forest carbon
farming is more profitable than
the preceding agricultural
enterprise by $150/ha/yr
• Biodiversity need is greater
than 50 units.
• Area of opportunity: 5 mill ha
• Total carbon sequestered : 88 mill t CO2 yr-1
• 15% of Australia's annual emissions
= 97% of agricultural emissions.
Polglase et al, 2008
Summary
• Our forests provide important goods and services to the
economy, society and the environment. They have been
classified as vulnerable to climate change.
• Adaptive capacity is high. Our challenge is to build resilient
forest management systems in the face of uncertainty of
impacts and in the face of the many challenges confronting
forest growers.
• Forests and forestry have an important role in mitigating climate
change. Many future forest configurations serving multiple aims
and outcomes are possible.
Michael Battaglia
Phone: +61 3 6237 56162
Email: [email protected]
Web: www.csiro.au/group
http://www.csiro.au/resources/Adapting-Agriculture-to-Climate-Change.html
Contact Us
Phone: 1300 363 400 or +61 3 3237 5600
Email: [email protected] Web: www.csiro.au
Sustainable agriculture