Transcript Slide 1

Cool change? How various Australian
cities can engage with climate issues
Phil McManus
The University of Sydney
Four Degrees or More: Australia in a Hot World
Melbourne, July 2011
Situating Australian Cities
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Climate change is a big challenge for Australian
cities, but this is situated within the bigger issue
of sustainability.
Anthropogenic climate change is primarily the
result of unsustainable practices which also lead
to other significant environmental issues,
including
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resource depletion
environmental degradation
loss of biodiversity.
Australian cities should be leading the world in
mitigation and adaptation, and leading the world
in the environmental management of other
important issues.
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Australia contributes less
than 1.5 per cent of
global greenhouse gas
emissions.
Our rate of emissions per
capita is among the
highest in the world.
Australia is part of fossil
fuel networks but avoids
attribution of emissions
from the burning of coal
exported to other
countries.
The atmosphere does not
recognise this accounting
mechanism.
Mt. Arthur Coal Mine, Hunter Valley
Source:http://archive.lee.greens.org.au/index.php/content/view/1350/65/
Pasha Bulker aground in Newcastle, 2007
Source:http://www.theage.com.au/ffximage/2007/06/28/pasha_m
ain_wideweb__470x296,0.jpg
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Source: http://www.smh.com.au/ffximage/2007/07/12/cargo_wideweb__470x282,0.jpg
The Port of Newcastle handles more than 1000 coal vessels per year.
Vessel queue: 23 ships at midnight on 15 June, 2011.
Source Hunter Valley Coal Chain Coordinator - http://www.hvccc.com.au/Pages/welcome.aspx
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At the global scale Australians are wealthy
consumers looking for cheaper products.
This is particularly the case in our largest cities.
Climate change is predicted to significantly impact
Australian cities
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Temperature
water availability
sea level rise
extreme events
We are a wealthy country with resources to
address climate change issues.
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Low Elevation Coastal Zone
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McGranahan et al (2007) identified the Low Elevation Coastal
Zone (LECZ) as the contiguous area along the coast that is
less than 10 metres above sea level.
This zone covers 2 per cent of the world's land area and
contains 10 per cent of the world's total population and 13 per
cent of the world's urban population.
McGranahan et al (2007, 19) note that between 1994 and
2004, “half of the 120,000 people killed, and 98 per cent of
the 2 million people affected by flood disasters were in Asia”.
Indian and Bangladeshi cities are vulnerable to climate change
impacts, and have not been responsible for major amounts of
greenhouse gas emissions.
Country
% of Population in the
LECZ
Total Population in the
LECZ
India
6%
63 million people
Bangladesh
46%
62.5 million people
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Source- http://www.earthinstitute.columbia.edu/news/2007/story03-2907.php
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The Little Ice Age
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The Little Ice Age in
Europe between
roughly 1300 and
1850AD has been
linked to suffering in
what was mainly a
rural society.
The impacts certainly
were felt in cities.
Winter severity in Europe, 1000 - 1900.
Based on Lamb, 1969 / Schneider and Mass, 1975.1
Source:
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_d2loZqBoOgU/S1zy7xElZKI
/AAAAAAAAA0c/1kMllPZYIKY/s320/The+Little+Ice+Ag
e.jpg
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Projected Impacts on Australian Cities
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Cities in northern
Australia, such as Cairns,
are likely to experience
more intense tropical
cyclones, with wind
speeds likely to increase
in the future.
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A 10% increase in storm
intensity could result in
a doubling of the area of
flood inundation in the
event of a 1 in 100 year
storm.
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Sourcehttp://www.signaturestaff.com.au/blog/wpcontent/uploads/2010/06/Cairns.jpg
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Between 26 000 and 33 000 kilometres of road, between
1200 and 1500 kilometres of rail infrastructure, and up
to 8 600 commercial buildings and up to 6 200 industrial
buildings, are at risk of erosion or inundation assuming
sea level rise of 1.1 metres by 2100.
Source: http://c.photoshelter.com/imgget/I0000WMFBStqg4_I/s/750/750/NEWCASTLE-COAL-0584.jpg
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Mitigation in Australian Cities
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We need to reduce the consumption of products
where their manufacture and transportation
generate significant greenhouse gas emissions.
This means moving towards local production
where possible, and working to make it more
sustainable.
It means carbon-neutral houses and buildings,
and designing and operating urban transport
systems with a view to reducing greenhouse gas
emissions.
Examples are isolated and much more needs to
be done.
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60L Green Building, 6066 Leicester St., Carlton
http://www.acfonline.org.au/default.asp?section_id=138
Sustainable House Day 2010
Commercially viable 4 storey
office building
Maximise the reuse of materials.
Annual savings compared to a
conventional building
• energy - 65%
• CO2 emissions - 100%
• water - 90%
http://www.sustainablehouseday.com/
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Conceptualising Australians
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These changes will not happen if
people think of themselves only as
consumers with a relationship to an
emissions trading scheme, or with a
personal interest in lowering their
taxation payments.
Another framework is required, not
to replace those frameworks, but to
sit alongside them.
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Alternative Conceptual Frameworks
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The International Council for Local Environmental
Initiatives (ICLEI) contributed significantly to
meaningful climate change action through their
Cities for Climate Protection (CCP) program that
aimed to empower local authorities to reduce
greenhouse gas emissions.
This valuable program involved approximately
250 local councils in Australia until it concluded in
June 2009, which highlights both its success in
garnering participation, but also the problem of
fragmentation in Australian cities and the lack of
effective metropolitan governance.
The latest generation of ICLEI CCP-IA (Integrated
Action) is, understandably, still focused at the
local government scale.
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In 2010 the Australian Conservation
Foundation (ACF) produced their
Sustainable Cities Index.
A comparative index of Climate
Change Vulnerability, Mitigation and
Adaptation (CC-VMA) in Australia’s
20 most populous cities would focus
attention onto urban areas, and the
actions of citizens.
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The CC-VMA Index
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Vulnerability criteria could include
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temperature changes,
rainfall changes,
sea level rise,
urban-bush interface,
risk of flooding,
and other relevant matters.
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Mitigation criteria could include
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the existence of an effective climate
change reduction working group in
most councils in a city,
extent of actions on ICLEI’s CCP-IA,
reductions in electricity generated from
coal fired power stations,
and reductions in vehicle kilometres
travelled by private motorized vehicles.
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Adaptation criteria include
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urban forestry (also a form of mitigation),
the percentage of buildings and infrastructure
that has been re-sited away from areas of high
vulnerability,
proportion of food derived from local
agriculture,
extent of water sensitive urban design (WSUD)
to make better use of likely reduced available
water supplies.
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Further research and great care is
needed to ensure that the criteria
are appropriate, do not duplicate or
omit important concerns, and have
rigorous and defensible means for
measurement.
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Conclusion
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In a world where four degrees of warming, or more, is
a realistic scenario, the later we delay any meaningful
responses, the worse the problem is likely to become.
History and vulnerability analysis suggests that cities
are likely to be particularly hard hit by climate change
impacts.
Due to the concentrations of people in cities who have
become reliant on the resource and absorptive
capacities of environments beyond their immediate
purview, the negative impacts are likely to be
experienced by more people than at any time in the
history of the planet.
Unfortunately, in many parts of the world, these will be
the poorest people who have contributed little, if
anything, to the problem.
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Australia is a wealthy country with the
capacity to mitigate and to adapt.
We will do neither, with grave
consequences, unless we make it happen
in our largest cities.
One feasible approach to facilitating
action at the urban scale is a media
salient Climate Change Vulnerability,
Mitigation and Adaptation Index.
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