Transcript Slide 1

Borneo International Conference: Discover Borneo
Nick A Chappell1 & Waidi Sinun2
Mitigating land-use and climate
change impacts in Borneo using
environmental informatics
Lancaster Environment Centre
Lancaster University1
Conservation & Environmental Management
Division, Yayasan Sabah Group2
1. What is Environmental Informatics?
Environmental Information
In UK, legal definition
(a) the state of the elements of the environment
and their interaction, (b) the factors likely to
affect the elements, (c) the policies /
legislation, (d) reports, (e) cost-benefit
analyses and assumptions used, and (f)
aspects of the state of human health and safety
directly impacted by the environment
Environmental Information Regulations (2004)
1. What is Environmental Informatics?
Environmental Information
Data
In UK, legal definition
(a) the state of the elements of the environment
and their interaction, (b) the factors likely to
affect the elements, (c) the policies /
legislation, (d) reports, (e) cost-benefit
analyses and assumptions used, and (f)
aspects of the state of human health and safety
directly impacted by the environment
Environmental Information Regulations (2004)
1. What is Environmental Informatics?
Environmental Information
In UK, legal definition
Laws
(a) the state of the elements of the environment
and their interaction, (b) the factors likely to
affect the elements, (c) the policies /
legislation, (d) reports, (e) cost-benefit
analyses and assumptions used, and (f)
aspects of the state of human health and safety
directly impacted by the environment
Environmental Information Regulations (2004)
1. What is Environmental Informatics?
Environmental Information
In UK, legal definition
Interpretation
(a) the state of the elements of the environment
and their interaction, (b) the factors likely to
affect the elements, (c) the policies /
legislation, (d) reports, (e) cost-benefit
analyses and assumptions used, and (f)
aspects of the state of human health and safety
directly impacted by the environment
Environmental Information Regulations (2004)
1. What is Environmental Informatics?
Environmental Information
In UK, legal definition
(a) the state of the elements of the environment
and their interaction, (b) the factors likely to
affect the elements, (c) the policies /
legislation, (d) reports, (e) cost-benefit
analyses and assumptions used, and (f)
aspects of the state of human health and safety
directly impacted by the environment
Quality
control
Environmental Information Regulations (2004)
1. What is Environmental Informatics?
Environmental Informatics
UK’s leading environ’tal research organization…
...Research and system development focusing on
the environmental sciences relating to the
creation,
collection,
storage,
processing,
modelling,
interpretation,
display
and
dissemination of data and information...
Natural Environment Research Council
Science Topic 16
1. What is Environmental Informatics?
Environmental Informatics
Traditional
Decision Support
System
UK’s leading environ’tal research organization…
...Research and system development focusing on
the environmental sciences relating to the
creation, collection, storage, processing,
modelling,
interpretation,
display
and
dissemination of data and information...
Natural Environment Research Council
Science Topic 16
1. What is Environmental Informatics?
Environmental Informatics
UK’s leading environ’tal research organization…
...Research and system development focusing on
the environmental sciences relating to the
creation, collection, storage, processing,
modelling,
interpretation,
display
and
dissemination of data and information...
Novel EI aspects
Natural Environment Research Council
Science Topic 16
2. Why use EI to help mitigate land-use
& climate change impacts in Borneo?
Exact image source lost, but refers to Daily Express article 14/2/06
2. Why use EI to help mitigate land-use
& climate change impacts in Borneo?
may present largest threat to civil
society for peoples of Borneo Island
3. What are these changes?
3.1. Climate change impacts in a
Borneo context
Climate change itself
‘average weather’
or
mean & variability of atmospheric
variables over anytime period
normally based on +30 yrs observations
Globe 0.7 oC warmer
than 1900 (+0.2
oC/dec past 30 yrs)
Brohan et al., 2006. J.
Geophys. Res. 111: d12106
1960-1998 temperature trends in Borneo
1961-2000: 2.7-4.0 oC/100yrs:
Tangang et al., 2007. Theor.
Appl. Climatol. 89: 3-4
Malhi & Wright, 2004. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B. 359: 351-329
Temp
+
+
evaporation
from
biosphere
atmos water
vapour
+
+
so called
acceleration of
Tropical Water Cycle
rainfall
Impacts
+
Frequency of large
rain/flood events
+
Loss of life
economic loss
+
Rainfall cyclicity
drought incidence
+
Loss of livelihoods
economic loss
Temp
Natural vegetation
& wildlife* stress
EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster
Database, Université Catholique de Louvain,
Brussels, Bel. Data version: v11.08.
http://www.preventionweb.net/english/countries/stat
istics/?cid=105
Impacts
+
Frequency of large
rain/flood events
+
Loss of life
economic loss
+
Rainfall cyclicity
drought incidence
+
Loss of livelihoods
economic loss
Temp
Natural disaster
occurrence
reported for
Malaysia
Natural vegetation
& wildlife* stress
EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster
Database, Université Catholique de Louvain,
Brussels, Bel. Data version: v11.08.
http://www.preventionweb.net/english/countries/stat
istics/?cid=105
Impacts
+
Frequency of large
rain/flood events
+
Loss of life
economic loss
+
Rainfall cyclicity
drought incidence
+
Loss of livelihoods
economic loss
Temp
Natural vegetation
& wildlife* stress
...but little academic work
published recently in international
journals
Impacts
+
Frequency of large
rain/flood events
+
Loss of life
economic loss
+
Rainfall cyclicity
drought incidence
+
Loss of livelihoods
economic loss
Temp
Bidin & Chappell, 2006. Hydrol. Process. 20:
3835-3850; Chappell et al., 2009. Hydrol. Sci. J.
54: 571-581; Hara et al., 2009. J Meteorol. Soc.
Japan 87: 413-424. Kitoh & Arakawa, 2005.
Geophys. Res. Lett. 32: L18709; Wu et al., 2008.
J Meteorol. Soc. Japan 86: 187-203 ...Walsh &
Newbery, 1999. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B 1391:
1869-1883
Natural vegetation
& wildlife* stress
Impacts
+
Frequency of large
rain/flood events
+
Loss of life
economic loss
+
Rainfall cyclicity
drought incidence
+
Loss of livelihoods
economic loss
Temp
Since 2004: Baker & Bunyavejchewin, 2009.
ISBN 9783540773801; Boyd et al., 2006. Int. J.
Remote Sens. 27: 2197-2219; Brearley et al.,
2007. J. Ecol. 95: 828-839; *Kishimoto-Yamada
et al., 2009. Bull. Entomol. Res. 99: 217-227;
Newbery & Lingenfelder, 2009. Plant Ecol. 201:
147-167; Silk, 2004. Oecologia 141: 114-120;
Silk et al., 2008. Oecologia 158-579-588;
*Skinner & Hopwood, 2004. Am. J. Phys.
Anthropol. 123: 216-235; Van der Werf et al.,
2008. PNAS 105: 20350-20355
Natural vegetation
& wildlife* stress
3. What are these changes?
3.2. Land-use change impacts in a
Borneo context
utilizing or converting lands to provide necessary
financial returns to improve national livelihoods
http://www.worldlandtrust.org/images/places/malaysia/oil-palm-plantation-vl.jpg
must have some negative impacts
no gain without pain
In Borneo, observe (even by eye) more turbid rivers
Adapted from http://static.panoramio.com/photos/original/4545563.jpg
hopefully largely temporary (decadal scales)
Chappell et al., 2004. Hydrol. Process. 18:685-701; Siti Nurhidayu Abu Bakar, PhD in progress
In Borneo, might observe (by e-sensors) rivers enriched in agro-chemicals
http://www.bbec.sabah.gov.my/HabitatManagement/TWRnKWR.jpg
HPLC for
pesticide
analysis
Abdullah, 1995. Trends Anal.
Chem. 14: 191-198
4. How do we attribute change?
What (or who) is responsible for the temperature
change or the elevated turbidity in Borneo?
past change or predicted (future) change
at
regional
scales:
several
or many
possible
agents
cannot be too simplistic if wish to identify
cost - effective solutions
e.g., attribution of Borneo climate change
see change in temperature observations
Despite some recent questioning of reliability of surface observations in USA &
globally due to urbanisation around met stations (e.g., Menne, 2010. J. Geophys.
Res. doi:10.1029/2009JD013094, in press) = EI
But how much in Borneo is due to:
1/ excessive biomass burning in the ‘West’ for many decades?
‘greenhouse effect’
CO2
1750: 280 ppm CO2
now: 380 ppm CO2
Other gases (GHGs)
e.g., methane, nitrous
oxide similar effect –
cumulative effect
CO2e
Now 430 ppm CO2e
Stern, 2007. ISBN:
9780521700801
IPCC, 2007. Summary for Policy
Makers. In Climate Change 2007,
ISBN: 9780521705974
and how much in Borneo is due to:
2/ local effect of fires in Borneo (e.g., 1997/98)?
shown to directly reduce Borneo rainfall (via smaller cloud droplets)
e.g., Rosenfeld, 1999. Geophys. Res. Lett. 26: 3105-3108
also on CO2 & aerosol* emissions
Balihorn et al., 2009. PNAS 106: 21213-21218; *Lin et al., 2007. Deep-Sea Res. PtII 54:
1589-1601
and how much in Borneo is due to:
3/ regional rainforest loss (selective felling or clearfelling)?
Global Circulation Models have shown contradictory results
for the effects on evaporation & rainfall
Study
Integration Precipitation Evapotranspiration
(con/def)
(mm/year)
(mm/year)
Dickinson & Henderson Sellers (1988)
3/1 yr
Lean & Warrilow (1989)
3/3 yr
Nombre et al (1991)
1/1 yr
Lean & Rountree (1992)
3/3 yr
Dickinson& Kennedy (1992)
3/3 yr
Mylne & Rountree (1992)
9/9 mo
Dirmeyer (1992)
14/14 mo
Henderson-Sellers et al (1993)
6/6 yr
Polcher & Laval (1994)a
1/1 yr
Polcher & Laval (1994)b
11/11 yr
Sud et al (1995)
3/3 yr
McGuffie et al (1995)
14/6 yr
Henderson-Sellers et al (1994)
25/11 yr
0
-490
-640
-295
-511
-339
33
-588
395
-186
-266
-437
-402
-200
-310
-500
-200
-255
-179
-146
-232
-985
-128
-350
-231
-222
Review table from Martin Fowell, 2006 PhD Lancaster
http://www.theses.com/idx/scripts/it.asp?xml=F:\index\idx\docs\all\56\it00525129.htm&subfolder=/search
e.g., attribution of Borneo land-use change
see period when rivers turbid, how much is due:
‘90 La
Nina
Normalised sediment flux
mm/d rainfall equivalents
‘95-96 La
Nina
 in a wet period
(e.g., La Nina)?
 how much due to
land - disturbance
during e.g. forestry?
‘92 El Niño
‘97 El
Niño
Chappell et al., 2004. Forests, Water & People in the
Humid Tropics, DOI: 10.2277/0521829534
http://www.cambridge.org/catalogue/catalogue.asp?isbn=9780511108792
 what does RIL look
like compared to
former
CONV
selective felling?
What does EI tell us?
e.g., for turbidity
1/ need high quality measurements of river through all fast changes to
quantify well enough – fortunately EI technology (e-sensor)
developments over last 20 years allow
2/ need to ‘zoom in’ to local scales to attribute (statistically) large-scale
observations to individual causal factors (e.g., presence of a riparian buffer)
3/ need to separate effects of impacts (often long residence times) from
natural cycles and trends (e.g., ENSO), i.e., model long-term observations
cannot see & attribute change
without using these key EI elements
(collection, processing/QA, modelling)
with any degree of confidence
i.e., say specific change is probable rather than possible
new emphasis on these terms in climate change science & policy
5. Why worry about land-use & climate
change impacts in Borneo?
Why should ‘you’ worry about LU&CCI given current
uncertainty in observations and models?
1/ CIVIL SOCIETY (INDIVIDUALS & COMMUNITIES)
Very beauty & excitement of your Borneo environment
(attracts tourists/scientists) makes you more sensitive /
vulnerable to change, as it…
http://www.trekearth.com/gallery/Asia/Malaysia/East/Sabah/photo862332.htm
can be very violent & unpredictable…
e.g., ENSO drought sensitivity
Inter-annual rainfall cyclicity (mm/d)
e.g., Borneo Vortex
Chang, 2004. East Asian Monsoon, ISBN:
981238692; Chang et al., 2005. Mon. Weather
Rev. 133: 489-503; Juneng et al., 2007. Meteorol.
Atmos. Phys. 98: 81-98 (extra Borneo impact)
‘95-96 La
Nina
‘90 La
Nina
‘92 El Niño
‘97 El
Niño
Chappell et al., 2004. Forests, Water & People in
the Humid Tropics, DOI: 10.2277/0521829534
 Living by rivers (kampung): vulnerable to flood events
 Living by sea (bandar): vulnerable to sea-level change, King Tides etc
from http://www.trekearth.com/gallery/Asia/Malaysia/East/Sabah/photo697519.htm
 Livelihoods from rainforest: complex, difficult to predict limit of use before collapse
http://www.lexphoto.co.uk/blogimages/mulu%20rainforest.jpg
2/ GOVERNMENT (& BUSINESS)
Governments need to secure the future – maximising returns
from the environment – without the risk of environmental
collapse
http://www.cathedralcitytravel.co.uk/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2007/12/belize108.jpg
avoiding theories of collapse for e.g., Mayan, Sumerian etc
civilisations, Great Dust Bowl in USA etc
6. The future prospects with EI?
3 aspects of EI may help ongoing & future mitigation of
land-use and climate change impacts…
1/ TECHNOLOGICAL ADVANCES
1.1. More reliable &
more
accurate
esensors for measuring
environment
e.g., YSI Water
Quality sonde
1.2. Faster & cheaper computers & storage devices
http://cdn.wn.com/ph/img/c0/02/0416a42facdcf5e1aba31a444087-grande.jpg
now have the capacity to handle (telemetry, process,
model) & store (DBMS, GIS) environmental data needed
1.3. Expansion of the internet
easier to access environmental information – critically for decision makers
supported by scientists providing data, QA & interpretation to them
http://www.sripetaling.net/blog/wp-content/uploads/2009/07/p1000474.jpg
also potentially for stakeholders (business / civil society) to provide input
2/ EXPANSION OF ENVIRONMENTAL EDUCATION
notably expansion of
university sector on
Borneo Island, e.g.,
…many more people opportunity to make the most of complex environmental information
but also via greater use of computers in schools
http://www.itu.int
e.g., Malaysian Smart School Project
http://farm3.static.flickr.com/2278/3538081056_04143af98d_o.jpg
& pupil access to
environmental field stations
e.g., Kuala Belalong Field Studies
Centre, Brunei Darussalam
http://www.ubd.edu.bn/academic/centres/kbfsc/
3/ GREATER SHARING OF RESEARCH INFORMATION
Traditional DSS – poor on data quality checking & modelling sophistication
Decision makers need better access to high quality environmental information
Recent years...
researchers now compelled publish in international journals
Gives environmental information...
more readily available to all resource centres
better quality (editors/reviewers demand)
Value to decision makers (& stakeholders)...
a/ More readily use environmental interpretation from similar environments
elsewhere in the world
b/ Foreign researchers benefiting from collaborating in studies in Borneo make
environmental information collated more accessible
Improvements...
Better access to the raw data
Interpretations valuable, but surely better for decision makers (& stakeholders) in
Borneo to have access to raw data collected by researchers?
...you then decide on your own interpretation
In UK, while slow, this is starting to happen...
e.g., UK-funded climate change science
including OP3 project focused on Sabah
e.g., UK land-use change
based at LEC (CEH-Lancaster)
If K@Borneo were to have capacity to input / store raw data & QA
(in addition to published interpretation) plus desire to request information
Potential for huge benefits for decision makers (& stakeholders)
Only expectation of researchers (anywhere in globe) - sufficient time to
publish before sharing data & use by others is acknowledged
(plagiarism avoided)
6. Conclusion
Incorporation of all aspects of EI into K@Borneo
…tremendous potential to make significant
contribution to mitigation (by decision makers) of
land-use & climate change in Borneo
Causes
Climate..
Lancaster Environment Centre,
Lancaster University
Conservation & Environmental
Management, Yayasan Sabah