Transcript Dr. Rebekah Shirley and Professor Daniel M

Integrated Energy Planning and Clean Energy Alternatives in
Borneo, East Malaysia
Dr. Rebekah Shirley and Professor Daniel M. Kammen
Energy and Resources Group, University of California, Berkeley
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• Analysis of Clean Energy
Options for Sabah
prepared by Berkeley in
2010
• Biomass waste projects at
large palm oil mills are
cost-competitive with coal
• Alternate Palm Oil Waste
OR Geothermal/Micro
Hydro Systems could meet
future demand at equal
cost while dramatically
reducing emissions
• Policy recommendations
on phase out of coal
subsidy, support of PV
incentive schemes and
regulation of Palm Oil Ind.
Sabah is a global leader in sustainable
development
Borneo Says No to Dirty Energy
By Jennifer Pinkowski Tuesday, Feb. 22, 2011
Daniel Kammen of the University of
California, Berkeley, who directed an
energy and environmental-impact study
commissioned by a coalition of green
groups, which was used widely in the
discussions of Sabah's energy options.
"It is a turning point that should bring
deserved praise and partnerships to
Malaysia at the upcoming climate
conference in Durban, South Africa,”
http://www.time.com/time/health/article/0,8599,2052627,00.html#ixzz1lvOeiiyz
Research Motivation: Integrating Bottom up Solutions
into Local Development Planning
What are feasible alternative energy mixes for Sarawak that meet
future energy demand for the local population given priorities of
cost, human and environmental impact?
• What is the potential for renewable resources to satisfy (a) rural
energy needs and (b) utility scale needs?
• What are the implications of different energy market scenarios
on optimal generation mix?
• What ecological impacts can we measure in a data constrained
context?
• How does this information filter into the assessment of energy
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alternatives?
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Output: Optimal System Design
Table Showing Optimal System Economics in Three Baram Villages
Village
Tanjung
Tepalit
Long
Anap
Long San
Category
Least Total
Cost
Diesel Base
Case
Least Total
Cost
Diesel Base
Case
Least Total
Cost
Diesel Base
Case
System Specification
Annual
Initial Cost
Operating
(US$)
Cost (US$)
Total NPC
((US$)
LCOE
(US$/kWh)
Average
Capacity
Annual
Fuel per Shortage Operating
Day (L/day)
(%)
Cost Ratio
NPC
Ratio
LCOE
Ratio
9 KW Hydro + 60kWh Battery
29,170
2,166
54,408
0.150
0.00
5.3
0.16
0.33
0.35
20kW Diesel
8,800
13,470
165,771
0.433
27.60
0.0
0.00
1.00
1.00
7kW Hydro + 20kW Diesel +
120kWh Battery
62,870
18,018
272,847
0.354
35.29
4.6
0.66
0.81
0.85
40kW Diesel
17,600
27,334
336,145
0.416
57.17
0.0
0.00
1.00
1.00
11kW Hydro + 40kW Diesel
18,900
27,444
338,723
0.306
57.74
5.8
0.68
0.68
0.72
60kW Diesel
26,400
40,650
500,115
0.426
84.00
0.0
1.00
1.00
1.00
Key Findings
• Hydro-turbines are the least cost technology. Meeting load
in dry months is the primary challenge under a zero
shortage constraint
• Small scale biogasification is frequently selected for optimal
systems in bigger villages where total waste volume high.
Resource availability is important – variable rice schedule.
• PV is less cost effective technology for current village
demand profile. Capital and replacement costs of battery
packs are major cost component for least cost systems that
meet a zero shortage constraint
• Diesel is the most expensive form of electric production for
Baram villages given the recurrent fuel costs
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2. What are alternative large-scale energy options?
Historical and Predicted Demand
Average Monthly Demand
Demand Growth Scenarios
Question: What alternatives does modeling show exist wrt reliability, cost and
impact? How cost competitive are different generation mixes?
Tool: Commercial Capacity Expansion Model – PLEXOS
Data: (a) Historical and Predicated Peak and Average Demand - National
Planning and Implementation Committee for Electricity Supply (JPPET), SEB,
MEC); (b) Primary Energy Resource Availability – Global Data Sets, Government21
Agencies; (c) Cost Information, Emissions Data – Government Agencies
Collecting Data on Resource Availability
Wilmar Plantations, 2013
PV Installations at CREATE, Sabah
• NASA Surface meteorology and Solar Energy Resource
• Sarawak Integrated Water Resources (Hydrometric Data)
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• Resource Boards (Timber Board, Palm Oil Board), Site Visits and SEB for Biomass
Collecting Data on Resource Availability
Dams planned and being developed under SCORE (Sovacool and Bulan, 2012)
Dam
Status
Resevoir Area (km2)
Water Level (m)
Affected
Settlements
Output
(MW)
Commencement of
Date
Estimated Cost
Construction
Operational (Mill USD)
Bakun
Baleh
Built
Planned
700
527.3
255
241
31
1
2400
1300
1994
2019
Baram
Under Construction
412.5
200
36
1200
2014
Batang Ai
Built
76.9
125
59
108
1981
Belaga
Planned
37.5
170
0
260
2015
242
Belepeh
Lawas
Planned
Planned
71.8
12.4
570
225
5
1
114
87
After 2022
After 2022
49
95
Limbang
Planned
41.3
230
11
245
After 2022
439
Linau
Murum
Pelagus
Planned
Under Construction
Planned
52
241.7
150.8
450
560
60
3
10
78
297
944
410
After 2022
2008
2015
264
1,061
424
Hydroelectric Dam and Reservoir Dimensions
Dimension
Capacity
Units
MW
Murum Dam
944
Batang Ai Dam
108
Bakun Dam
2,400
Crest Length
m
473
810
814
Dam Height
m
141
85
206
Catchment Area
2
km
2,750
1,200
14,750
Resevoir Gross Storage
Dead Storage
km3
km3
12.04
2.87
44.00
6.57
1.63
24.99
Full Supply Level
m
540
108
228
Min Operating Level
Reservoir Area at Full Supply Level
Reservoir Area at Min Operation Level
m
km2
km2
515
245
234
98
85
77
195
695
594
2011
4,644
2,424
1,515
1985
2013
•
•
387
Dimensions - Sarawak
Integrated Water
Resource Dept
Monthly Peak and
Minimum Energy
Outputs Department of
Irrigation and
Drainage Data
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Environmental Adders: GHG Emissions Intensity
Cost and Operation Parameters
Power Plant Parameters used for Optimization Modeling
Power Plant Type
Coal
Gas
Diesel
HEP Batang Ai
HEP Bakun
HEP Baram
HEP Murum
HEP Other
Oil Palm Biomass
POME Plant
Run Of River
Solar PV
Wind
Heat Rate
(Btu/kWh)
9370
6705
10991
0
0
0
0
0
10625
9480
0
0
0
Emissions
Production Rate
(lb/MWh)
2291
1080
1647
72
36
92
44
69
500
200
0
0
0
Build Cost
($/kW)
2890
1230
917
3870
3870
3870
3870
3870
3830
3030
1300
2357
2213
FO&M Cost
($/kW-year)
23.0
6.3
6.8
15.0
15.0
15.0
15.0
15.0
95.0
120.0
10.0
48.0
39.6
VO&M Cost
($/MWh)
3.7
3.6
3.6
10
10
10
10
10
15
15
10
0
0
2015
Forestland
Value Charge
($/kW-year)
6.8
10.7
7.8
21.9
21.9
21.9
21.9
21.9
375
375
0
9.5
22.1
Levels of Variability in Analysis
Demand Forecasts
Scenarios
Priorities
Sensitivity Analysis
BAU Growth
7% Growth per annum
10% Growth per annum
SCORE Forecast
20% 2020 RPS
Feed-in Tariff
Reference
SCORE
Least Cost
Minimum Reserve Margin
GHG Emissions Cost
Forestland Value Adder
Emission Pricing Scheme
Emission Production Rates
Technology Build Costs
Land Limits
Data Sources
• “Cost and
Performance Data for
Power Generation.”
Prepared for the
National Renewable
Energy Laboratory,
2012.
• U.S. Energy
Information
Administration,
“Annual Energy
Outlook 2013 with
Projections to 2040,”
Apr. 2013
• Sarawak Energy
Berhad Oil Palm
Waste Operations
Parameters
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Generation (GWh)
Dispatchable Energy vs Demanded Energy under 7% Growth
Outputs: Generation Profile, Cost Components and Generation
Characteristics of Scenarios under 7% Demand Growth
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Sensitivity Results under 7% Growth
[LRC = Low RE Cost; HDE = High Dam
Emissions; ICP = Increased Carbon
Price]
27
Sarawak Land Cover under SCORE
Sarawak Land Cover using Distributed Energy Resources
Using Global Species Range Data for Borneo
•
•
•
•
Top-down Approaches: large-scale maps of species occurrence, expert assessment or distribution models
Bottom-up Approaches: high quality small-scale data upscaled using scaling relationships (e.g.SAR)
Our Study - Combined Approach: Able to estimate three distinct measures of biodiversity impact for each
dam and all three dams together: (i) the number of affected species, (ii) number of local extinctions and
(iii) number of lost individual organisms
Completed for four taxonomic groups: mammals, birds, trees, and arthropods
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How are mammal, bird, tree and arthropod
species affected by the dams?
Trees and Arthropods
Species Richness and Individuals Lost: SAR and Census Data
Census Plots: Lambir Hills (S = 1,174 species and N 366,121 individual trees)
Pasoh Forest Reserve (S = 818, N = 320,382)
San Lorenzo, Panama
Extinctions: EAR
SAR and EAR functional forms: Harte, J. 2011. Maximum Entropy and Ecology: A Theory of Abundance, Distribution and Energetics.
Oxford, United Kingdom: Oxford University Press
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Outputs: Biodiversity Study Summary Statistics
Table 1. Showing Number of Species Affected and Estimated Number of Individuals Lost for SCORE Dams
Birds
Mammals
Total Number
Total Number
Reservoir
Number of
Individuals Lost Number of
Individuals Lost
Hydroelectric Dam
Status
Area (km2) Species Affected (Millions)
Species Affected (Millions)
Bakun
Operational since 2011
701
302
1.75
142
55.09
Murum
Being inundated
242
312
0.61
147
19.55
Baram
Under Construction
414
318
1.04
162
35.52
Table 2. Showing Red List Category Break Down for SCORE Dams (Bakun, Murum, Baram)
Code
Definition
Birds
Mammals
EX
Extinct (EX)
0
0
EW
Extinct in the Wild (EW)
0
0
CR
Critically Endangered (CR)
0
1
EN
Endangered (EN)
2
6
VU
Vulnerable (VU)
14
24
NT
Near Threatened (NT)
75
14
LC
Least Concern (LC)
240
103
DD
Data Deficient (DD)
0
16
Table 3. Impact Summary Statistics (Bakun, Baram, Murum)
Birds
Mammals
Total Number of Species Globally
10424
5513
Total Number of Species in Borneo
580
239
Number of Species Affected
331
164
Percentage Global Species Affected
3.2%
3.0%
Percentage Bornean Species Affected
57.1%
68.6%
Maximum Percentage Global Range Affected
4.7%
1.8%
Corresponding Species
Petaurillus emiliae
Oriolus hosii
Common Name
Lesser Pygmy Flying Squirrel Black Oriole
Sunda Pangolin
Grey Gibbon
Bornean Pheasant
http://brighterfuturechallenge.com/gray-gibbon-hylobates-moloch/
http://www.vulkaner.no/n/africa/pangolin.html
http://evoluahomosapiens.blogspot.com/2013/02/gato-vermelho-de-borneu-catopuma-badia.html
http://www.gbwf.org/pheasants/borneo03.html
Bornean Bay Cat
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Conservative Results (Limitations):
• The application of the SAR and EAR do not account for
the steeply sloping topography of the reservoir areas.
All three estimates are based on scaling laws or range
maps, which do not consider undiscovered species of
birds and mammals within the island of Borneo
• The estimates of species-level extinctions do not reflect
potential extinctions of subspecies or local populations,
both of which may be critical to species’ long-term
viability
• The analysis does not account for the many impacts of
these three dams on biodiversity that are not directly
related to habitat loss from reservoir inundation