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NOAA Climate Program
The NOAA Climate Program:
Research and Climate Services
Chet Koblinsky
Director of the NOAA Climate Program, and
Acting Director of the Office of Global Programs
Climate Prediction Assessments and
Services Workshop, March 9-11,
Florida State University,
Tallahassee, Florida
7/18/2015
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NOAA Climate Program
• Ten years ago NOAA’s climate services were primarily focused
on the dissemination of coarsely resolved national seasonal
forecasts.
• Over the last ten years NOAA has, in close collaboration with
decision-makers, conducted research that has enhanced the
relevance, value, and accuracy of its data and forecasting tools.
• Where should NOAA be in 10-20 years in regard to climate
services for climate variability, climate change?
Need to develop a vision and roadmap for the future.
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NOAA Climate Program
• The current program stems from NOAA’s commitment
to develop a cohesive system that links research,
operational climate services, and decision-makers
needs.
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NOAA Climate Program
Vision
NOAA’ s MISSION
To understand and predict changes in the Earth’s
environment and conserve and manage coastal
and marine resources to meet our Nation’s
economic, social, and environmental needs.
BENEFITS TO THE NATION
Consistent with its results-oriented approach to
strategic planning, NOAA is committed to
maximizing the benefits of its products and
services to our Nation’s:
•Environment •Public Safety •Economy
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NOAA Climate Program
Mission Goal 2 - Climate
Climate is one of the four strategic themes within NOAA.
“Understand climate variability and change to enhance
society’s ability to plan and respond”
Climate Services (NAS): The timely production and delivery of
useful climate data, information, and knowledge to decision
makers.
Anticipated Outcomes (Build an end-to-end system)
– Increased use and effectiveness of observations and
climate information – show the benefit of the observations,
provide feedback on what works, what doesn’t work, and what
needs to be changed and how.
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NOAA Climate Program
Research to Delivery
Information
Gathering and
Dissemination
Operations/
Decision-makers
Research
NOAA Climate
Transition
Program
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NOAA Climate Program
Organizational Ideas
Interagency Climate
Office
OAR
OGP,
COSP
Sea Grant
CDC,
GFDL
NMFS
NOAA Climate
Program Office
NOS
CSC,
OCRM,
CWISE
Matrix Link
External Advisory
Groups
NESDIS
Climate Board
Matrix Link
NWS
NGDC
NCDC
NODC
NCEP
OCWWS
RCCs
CWISE
EMC CPC
CSD
Regions
WFOs/
RFCs
Regional
Manager
RISAs, IRI,
Extension
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NOAA Climate Program
Elements
1. Climate Observations and Analysis (T. Karl - NESDIS) 50%
Observations
Data Stewardship
Understanding Climate Variability and Change
2. Climate Forcing (D. Albritton - OAR) 20%
Global Carbon Cycle
Atmospheric Composition
3. Climate Predictions and Projections (A. Leetmaa - OAR) 25%
Climate Prediction
Climate Change Projections
Reducing Model Uncertainty
4. Climate and Ecosystems (N. Cyr - NMFS) 1%
5: Regional Decision Support (R. Livezey NWS,
C. Nierenberg - OAR) 4%
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NOAA Climate Program
Goal 5
Regional Decision Support: A mature and efficient
system for understanding and responding to stakeholder
needs for products and services.
Outcome – Enhance NOAA’s operational decision support
tools to provide climate services for national socioeconomic benefits
Performance Measure – Provide NWS forecasters
scientific training to understand and use NOAA climate
forecasts and other climate products, and adapt these
products for regional delivery.
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NOAA Climate Program
Milestones for Goal 5
Exploratory workshops to identify climate sensitive issues at
regional scales.
Regional forums to identify research priorities and transfer to
operations
Develop prototype methods for application of climate
information to practical management
Transition research products to operations
Social science-based studies for context and use of climate
information
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NOAA Climate Program
Examples
• Operational wildfire forecasting a federal and state
partnership with NOAA.
• Climate implications for estuarine rehabilitation, the
CALFED example.
• NWS partnerships with FEMA to improve disaster
management in Montana.
• Climate based risk management NOAA-USDA researchextension partnership.
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NOAA Climate Program
• Where should NOAA be in 10-20 years in regard to climate
services for climate variability, climate change?
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BACKUP
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• Ecosystem sciences
• Ecosystems restoration
• Endangered species
• Extreme events
• Recreation
• Estuarine restoration
• Mississippi
Great Lakes shipping
(variable water volume)
• Extreme events &
infrastructure
• Extreme events &
public safety (insurance)
• Flood Control
• Water quality
• Consumption
PLACE-BASED RESEARCH AND
DECISION SUPPORT
Problem Identification
And Formulation
Policy Contexts
and
Decision-making
Processes
Characterizing
&
Communicating
Outcomes
Increase Response
Options
Development of
Decision Resources
(across scales & communities)
Scientific Resources
And Knowledge
Expanded
Regional Adaptive
Capacity
• Risk management
• Yield, supply,
price expectation
• Trade implications
Identification of key
Knowledge gaps
• Fisheries populations
• Production
• Energy demand
Conditions for wind
& solar
• Health
• EPA air quality regulation
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• Wildfire management
• Reforestation options
• Controlled burning
• Vector borne diseases
• Asthma
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