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Assessment of the Impacts of Climate Change on Physical Infrastructure Thursday 12 March 2009 Presentations by Emeritus Professor Len Stevens AM FTSE And Mr Michael Nolan, Associate Director Sustainability & Climate Change, Maunsell Australia Pty Ltd Assessment of Impacts of Climate Change on Australia’s Physical Infrastructure Em Professor Len Stevens AM FTSE, University of Melbourne Len Stevens is Emeritus Professor of Civil Engineering at the University of Melbourne. He has wide experience in the theory and practice of Civil Engineering with direct involvement with the design, construction and rehabilitation of large infrastructure projects. He has played a significant role in developing the suite of building standards which are currently in use under the direction of the Building Code of Australia and which will be key elements for the adaptation of infrastructure to climate change impacts. Assessment of Impacts of Climate Change on Australia’s Physical Infrastructure Australian Academy of Technological Sciences and Engineering 3 Presentation outline • Review of major climate change features • Identification of critical infrastructure sectors • Outline of risk assessment methodology • Conclusions and Recommendations 4 Global warming Projections – IPCC (2007) Warming of 0.1 to 0.7°C is projected by 2020, rising to 1.1 to 6.4°C by 2100 5 Temperature distribution data as a probability density function (pdf) Likelihood of global warming in 2100 consistent with the climate sensitivity, carbon cycle uncertainties and a range of emissions scenarios summarised in IPCC (2007). The diagram shows the likelihood of exceeding a given level of change. 6 Some typical climate change events Note: Sea level rise to 79 cm is projected for 2100 7 Physical infrastructure elements considered in ATSE study • • • • Transport: road, rail, air, sea Energy: gas, electricity, oil Mining: production and distribution Built Environment: domestic, commercial, essential services, agricultural, coastal • Water: storage, distribution, domestic, irrigation, industrial, waste, drainage • Communication: fixed line, wireless 8 Physical infrastructure: demand and capacity • Loading and strength of built environment • Electrical power demand and generating capacity • Rainfall and drainage capacity • Sea level rise and protection • Demand and supply of water 9 Recommended procedures developed by Department of Climate Change Assessment methods based upon an internationally accepted probabilistic methodology - see AS/NZS 4360:2004 - by assessing: Likelihood of a demand event, L, Consequence of that event on infrastructure capacity, C, Risk to physical and economic activity, R, After which adaptation requirements, physical and economic, A, can be assessed. 10 ATSE Conclusions and Recommendations Impacts on infrastructure 11 • Most, but not all, sectors of Australia’s physical infrastructure are reasonably well placed to respond to possible climate change impacts via application of suitable adaptation strategies. Costs can be estimated for specified infrastructure. • Adaptation should, where possible, be integrated with normal maintenance and upgrade programs. • Most vulnerable sectors related to energy and water issues – often already at serious risk without climate change. 12 • Major potential impacts on infrastructure often arise from combination of projected climatic events For example: Impacts of extreme rainfall, sea level rise, and storm surge on low lying coastal development Impacts of drought, bush fires, and temperature extremes on electricity supply and distribution 13 • In essential sectors, the implementation of effective adaptation strategies may require intervention by governments to ensure that planning is fully integrated. Examples may include the generation and distribution of electrical energy, water storage and supply, or inundation of low lying coastal area developments. 14 • The Council of Australian Governments (COAG) should have oversight responsibility for issues relating to the impact of climate change by establishing a national body, such as a “National Climate Change Adaptation Task Force (NCCAT)” NCCAT would: Produce Guidelines for national policy solutions for climate change adaptation Identify and facilitate research needed to support the policy solutions 15 Under NCCAT guidance, relevant government authorities should: Undertake comprehensive risk assessment for specific existing critical infrastructure facilities considered vulnerable to climate change Implement comprehensive strategic planning controls for future specific installations potentially vulnerable to climate change 16 Adapting Infrastructure to Climate Change Impacts Mr Michael Nolan, Associate Director Sustainability & Climate Change, Maunsell Australia Pty Ltd Michael is an environmental professional with fifteen years experience managing sustainability and environmental change outcomes for business, government and educational institutions. He has extensive experience in sustainable infrastructure, energy, greenhouse and climate change adaptation, water and behaviour change. Michael led the climate change impacts to infrastructure in Australia for the Garnaut Climate Change Review and project managed several climate change impact, risk assessment and adaptation projects relating to water, power, transport, buildings and communications infrastructure, organisations and settlements.