Transcript Slide 1
APPLYING FOREST SIMULATION MODELING TO TEST THE IMPACT OF CLIMATIC CHANGE ON SELECTED ECOSYSTEMS AT TWO MOUNTAIN TRANSECTS IN NEVADA Mike Hay, Franco Biondi, Jimmie Chew, Robin Tausch Presentation Outline Purpose Simulation model Data Directions/Work to be done This material is based upon work supported by the National Science Foundation under Cooperative Agreement No. EPS-0814372 Purpose Main objective: insert climate into models used by resource managers This material is based upon work supported by the National Science Foundation under Cooperative Agreement No. EPS-0814372 Vegetation depends on succession, disturbance, and climate (plus humans) Grazing 2 1 Fire Suppression 6 Altered Fire Regime 3 P-J Expansion 5 Climate Change 4 This material is based upon work supported by the National Science Foundation under Cooperative Agreement No. EPS-0814372 How do we combine records (instrumental and proxy) with simulation models? Recent observations show a strong east-west gradient in wildfires across Lincoln County (Dilts et al. 2009) However, long-term fire history data show that this gradient may be a recent phenomenon (Biondi et al. 2011) SIMPPLLE is an acronym for: SIMulating Patterns and Processes at Landscape scaLEs Jimmie Chew and Kirk Moeller, USFS Rocky Mountain Research Station, Missoula MT Simulation model http://www.fs.fed.us/rm/missoula/4151/SIMPPLLE/index.html This material is based upon work supported by the National Science Foundation under Cooperative Agreement No. EPS-0814372 SIMPPLLE was developed as a management tool to: HANDLE DISTURBANCE PROCESSES AS STOCHASTIC EVENTS CAPTURE THE INTERACTION BETWEEN VEGETATION PATTERNS AND DISTURBANCE PROCESSES PROVIDE FOR A QUANTIFICATION OF THE RANGE OF VARIABILITY FOR BOTH VEGETATION CONDITIONS AND DISTURBANCE PROCESSES IMPROVE OUR ABILITY TO IDENTIFY DESIRED FUTURE CONDITIONS OF BOTH VEGETATION CONDITIONS AND LEVELS OF DISTURBANCE PROCESSES INTEGRATE KNOWLEDGE FROM RESEARCH STUDIES, FINE SCALE MODELS AND EXPERT OPINION Spatially and temporally explicit Barren Great Basin PinyonJuniper Woodland Inter-Mountain Basins Big Sagebrush Shrubland Inter-Mountain Basins Curl-leaf Mountain Mahogany Woodland and Shrubland This material is based upon work supported by the National Science Foundation under Cooperative Agreement No. EPS-0814372 Data LANDFIRE National Fire Occurrence database (NFO) Parameter-elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model (PRISM) Climate Data Bias Corrected, Spatially Downscaled (BCSD) Global Circulation Model (GCM) projections Digital Elevation Model (DEM) This material is based upon work supported by the National Science Foundation under Cooperative Agreement No. EPS-0814372 LANDFIRE Vegetation: Type Canopy density Canopy height This material is based upon work supported by the National Science Foundation under Cooperative Agreement No. EPS-0814372 National Fire Occurrence database Fire occurrences 1986 – 1996 Area burned This material is based upon work supported by the National Science Foundation under Cooperative Agreement No. EPS-0814372 PRISM Suitable Climate Space This material is based upon work supported by the National Science Foundation under Cooperative Agreement No. EPS-0814372 PRISM Upper and lower bounds for temperature and precipitation This material is based upon work supported by the National Science Foundation under Cooperative Agreement No. EPS-0814372 BCSD GCM GCM cell size is large At this latitude: ~320 km x 280km This material is based upon work supported by the National Science Foundation under Cooperative Agreement No. EPS-0814372 BCSD GCM U.S. DOI Bureau of Reclamation Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Santa Clara University Civil Engineering Department Climate Central Scripps Institution of Oceanography U.S. Geological Survey U.S. DOE National Energy Technology Laboratory U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Institute for Water Resources California-Nevada Applications Program California Climate Change Center This material is based upon work supported by the National Science Foundation under Cooperative Agreement No. EPS-0814372 National Elevation Dataset USGS 10 meter resolution This material is based upon work supported by the National Science Foundation under Cooperative Agreement No. EPS-0814372 Directions/Work to be done Refining pathways and system logic This material is based upon work supported by the National Science Foundation under Cooperative Agreement No. EPS-0814372 Directions/Work to be done Refining pathways and system logic This material is based upon work supported by the National Science Foundation under Cooperative Agreement No. EPS-0814372 Directions/Work to be done Refining pathways and system logic This material is based upon work supported by the National Science Foundation under Cooperative Agreement No. EPS-0814372 Questions? This material is based upon work supported by the National Science Foundation under Cooperative Agreement No. EPS-0814372