Transcript Biomass - Western Cape

1
W Cape Energy Strategy –
options for sustainability
Presentation to Western Cape
Sustainable Development Conference
June 2005
2
SA Energy Flows
3
Electricity Demand by Sector
Transport
2%
Residential
17%
Agriculture
Commerce
3%
10%
Other
0%
Industry
68%
4
Changes in global energy market
• Concern re limits on fossil fuels reserves
• Risks to fossil fuels market because of
emissions
• Increasing pressure to reduce impact on climate
change
• International Energy Agency estimates a 15-20%
of total energy supply contribution from
renewable energy by 2010, up from 10% in 1999
• Scenario analyses by Shell show renewables
meeting around 40% of world energy needs by
2050
5
Changes to SA electricity market
• New generation capacity will push prices
towards LRMC
• Supply shortages from 2007 will put
upward pressure on prices
• Potential SA emission reduction
commitment from 2012 will penalise coal
based power
• Emerging market for IPPs
• CDM credits and subsidies for renewables
Electricity sales forecast –
national & foreign
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7
Eskom generation capacity
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Some problems with coal
• Polluting - in 1995, stations generated 600
millions tons of carbon dioxide, 1.3 million tons
of SO2 (includes other sulphur compounds) and
150 thousand tons of NOX
• located at the coal fields in the northern interior
of South Africa
• power has to be transmitted long distances to
coastal centres causing problems with the
quality of electricity
• conventional cooling towers use between 1.8
and 2.0 litres of water for every kilowatt-hour of
electricity generated
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New generation options
• Coal-fired plant with Flue Gas Desulphurisation
& Fluidised Bed Boiler Technologies
• Importing Hydro electricity from SADC
• Combined cycle gas turbines using natural gas
• Open cycle gas turbines using diesel (peaking
plant)
• New nuclear technologies e.g. Pebble Bed
Modular Reactor
• Renewable technologies – hydro, biomass,
landfill gas, wind and solar
10
SA Renewables Target
• 10 000 GWh contribution to final energy
consumption by 2013, to be produced mainly
from biomass, wind, solar and small-scale hydro
• To be utilised for power generation and nonelectric technologies such as solar water heating
and bio-fuels
• This is approximately 4% (1667 MW) of the
projected electricity demand for 2013
• Equivalent to replacing two units of Eskom's
combined coal fired power stations
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Renewables supply curve
First
1,000
GWh
Sugar
sugar mills spare capacity
Next 4,000
GWh
Total 10,000
GWh target
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55
55
109
109
109
551
1,380
175
1,000
3,633
Ngodwana
65
65
65
additional projects
20
170
340
identified projects
210
210
210
additional projects
75
1,000
3000
identified projects
240
240
240
additional projects
51
600
600
Wind
0
0
308
Total
1,000
4,000
10,000
reduced process steam
full scale cogen
SWH
Pulp &Paper
Hydro
LFG
SA cost data for technologies
making up 10 000 GWh target
GWh output
Landf ill gas: large
Landf ill gas: medium
Landf ill gas: small
Biomass pulp & paper: mill 1
Hydro: large: ref urbishment
Landf ill gas: micro
Solar commercial: of f ices & banks
Sugar bagasse: including high pressure boilers
Biomass pulp & paper: mill 2
Sugar bagasse: reduced process steam
Solar commercial: hostels - education
Solar commercial: hospitals
Solar commercial: hostels - security services
Sugar bagasse: including tops & trash
Hydro: small: unconventional
Hydro: large: interbasin transf er
Wind energy: class 1
Solar residential: low income households
Hydro: large - ROR - LH
32
215
160
65
273
191
224
3795
39
570
581
267
339
1483
205
526
63
930
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Dynamic f inancial
cost R/kWh
0.17
0.18
0.19
0.10
0.11
0.30
0.23
0.22
0.23
0.24
0.30
0.30
0.30
0.29
0.34
0.30
0.38
0.35
0.34
CaBEERE 2004
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Barriers to renewables
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Technologies expensive
Significant initial investment needed
Relatively long periods before reaching profitability
Lack of consumer awareness re renewable energy
SA energy market based on centralised development
around conventional sources
• Lack of non-discriminatory open access to national
electricity grid
• Market power of utilities
• Financial, legal, regulatory and organisational barriers
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Creating market for renewables
• Currently Eskom pays 10 – 11c/kWh for energy from
IPPs onto grid
• Long run marginal cost of energy from new coal fired
plant is now estimated at 25c/kWh
• Additional social costs from pollution and climate change
mean that full economic cost is 30c/kWh
• Historical investment by SA in generation capacity allows
Eskom to subsidise its tariffs to consumers
• New renewable generation capacity should be allowed to
sell onto grid at full economic cost of new coal fired plant
• Renewable energy targets should be set for REDs
15
SA Integrated Energy Plan
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Energy supply will remain reliant on coal for next two decades
Diversify supply through natural gas, new and renewable energies
Continue investigations into nuclear as a future energy source
Promote energy efficiency management and technologies
Maximise load factors on generation plant to lower lifecycle costs
Lessen reliance on imported fuels by developing oil / gas deposits
Increase oil refineries capacity rather than greenfields development
Continue with synfuel plants, supplement with gas as feedstock
New electricity generation to be coal based with potential for hydro,
gas and nuclear
• Ensure environmental considerations in energy supply and end use
• Promote universal access to clean and affordable energy
• Policy and legislation for renewables and energy efficiency
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Some issues for W Cape
• Distance from main generation capacity
• Risk of electricity price increases and pollution
penalties
• Vulnerability to climate change
• Deteriorating urban air quality
• Major industrial expansion in metro and
Saldanha
• First mover advantage with RED 1
• Considerable local renewable resources
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RED 1
• Launch on 1st July
• 600 000 customers in current metro
• Need to manage risk of changes in energy
market by diversifying capacity
• Advantage of first mover at scale – can tap
available low cost renewables
• Test market by offering retail option based
initially on TRECs
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Solar water heating
• Energy savings and technology tested in
Kuyasa and Lwandle
• Net saving on household energy bills
• Technically and financially feasible to
integrate into all low income housing
• Significant available subsidies and carbon
finance
• N2 Gateway project should offer these
benefits to households
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Key interventions for W Cape
• Adoption of provincial integrated energy strategy
• Integrating renewable energy into first Regional
Electricity Distributor
• Promote energy efficiency in public buildings
and through procurement
• Including energy efficiency in settlement
planning, and installing SWHs in new housing
developments
• Regulatory support for new investments in
renewable energy