Transcript SAS Honors - North Jersey Transportation Planning Authority

New Jersey's Changing Climate
With a Transportation Spin
North Jersey Transportation
Planning Authority
Climate Working Group
Dr. David A. Robinson
Chair, Department of Geography &
New Jersey State Climatologist
Rutgers University
September 28, 2010
New Brunswick, April 16, 2007
John Munson/The Star-Ledger
Our mission:
Monitor
Understand
Inform
http://climate.rutgers.edu/stateclim
Office of the
NJ State
Climatologist
1. Traveling through NJ....or not
2. What drives our weather & climate?
3. Is NJ's climate changing? If so, why?
4. What will the future bring?
5. Addressing climate change
6. Keeping a watchful eye
Weather & climate
impact all aspects of life in NJ
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Transportation
Agriculture/horticulture
Ecology
Water resources
Public health & safety
Energy
Commerce
Yes, transportation
to be sure
Indian Trails
in the 1600s
Mapping NJ, 2009
Present Road
Network
Mapping NJ, 2009
Rail lines: 1876
Mapping NJ, 2009
1. Traveling through NJ....or not
2. What drives our weather & climate?
3. Is NJ's climate changing? If so, why?
4. What will the future bring?
5. Addressing climate change
6. Keeping a watchful eye
Weather - Climate
“Players”
A mid-latitude squeeze play
Diversity at home
Altitude
Latitude
Surface Conditions
Land-Water Contrasts
Ocean Currents
1. Traveling through NJ....or not
2. What drives our weather & climate?
3. Is NJ's climate changing? If so, why?
4. What will the future bring?
5. Addressing climate change
6. Keeping a watchful eye
Climate
past
Past century of
NJ climate
variability
Climate
Observations
Past 12 months
of NJ's climate
Rank
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
10
Year
2010
2005
1949
1999
2002
2006
1955
2008
1900
1943
1973
Summer
Temp
76.1
75.6
74.6
74.5
74.4
74.3
74.1
74.0
73.9
73.8
73.8
Summer
Rank
Year
1
1966
Precip
5.67
2
1957
5.73
3
1929
7.10
4
1949
7.65
5
1964
7.89
6
1913
8.09
7
1923
8.12
8
2010
8.27
9
1963
8.28
10
1944
8.32
Coupled
Climate
Model
Schematic
Natural and anthropogenic forcings
and 20th century temperatures
Meehl, G.A., et al., 2004
1. Traveling through NJ....or not
2. What drives our weather & climate?
3. Is NJ's climate changing? If so, why?
4. What will the future bring?
5. Addressing climate change
6. Keeping a watchful eye
New Jersey's future climate
 Rising temperatures
 Steady or increasing precipitation
 Increasing variability and extremes
- storms, flood, drought, heat…….
 Rising sea level
More warming in the pipeline
Future emissions
Additional “zero-emission”
warming (aka
“commitment”)
Warming to date
Changes in heat index
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The heat index combines the
effects of temperature and
humidity to estimate human
comfort.
Results are from simulations
with three global climate
models with two emissions
scenarios, representing the
low and high ends of the IPCC
range.
Under the high emissions
scenario, Tri-State summers at
the end of the 21st century are
projected to be similar to those
in Savannah, Georgia today.
Effects of climate change on water
resources: more floods and droughts?
Spruce Run Reservoir, March 2002
Delaware River, Sept. 2004
Easton-Phillipsburg Bridge
June 2006
A recent view of global mean sea level changes
Reconstructing sea level from paleo and projected temperatures 200 to 2100 AD
Grinsted, Moore and Jevrejeva, Climate Dynamics, 2009
Shipping through the Arctic
Elevations
below 10 feet
in gray
1. Traveling through NJ....or not
2. What drives our weather & climate?
3. Is NJ's climate changing? If so, why?
4. What will the future bring?
5. Addressing climate change
6. Keeping a watchful eye
Managing climate change
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Knowledge: Develop a better understanding of
the details of future climate change.
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Mitigation: Reduce emissions of carbon dioxide
and other greenhouse gases.
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Adaptation: Increase the resilience of society to
climate change.
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Leadership: Raise public awareness of the
challenges posed by climate change and the
need to mitigate and adapt.
1. Traveling through NJ....or not
2. What drives our weather & climate?
3. Is NJ's climate changing? If so, why?
4. What will the future bring?
5. Addressing climate change
6. Keeping a watchful eye
http://climate.rutgers.edu/njwxnet
NJ Weather & Climate Network
Dry north,
Central icing,
Southern rain:
Sunday evening
12/2/07
Red numbers
2: rain
4: snow
6: freezing rain
7: drizzle
Custom
Quick Look
Information
Augmenting automated
precipitation observations
Daily observations by
trained volunteers of
all ages
Community Collaborative Rain, Hail & Snow
Network (CoCoRaHS)
http://cocorahs.org
Thanks
[email protected]
http://climate.rutgers.edu