Transcript Slide 1

The risks of climate change:
international responses through
adaptation and mitigation
Jean Palutikof
National Climate Change Adaptation
Research Facility
Charles Darwin Symposium 2011
What’s NCCARF up to?
• ARGP:
– Stephen Garnett, Adaptation Strategies for Australian
Birds
– Currently have a Call open for Indigenous Communities
and Adaptation, which closes 28th October: information
session this evening
• Synthesis and Integrative Research Program:
– Will open a Call in about 2 weeks on further topics
• Planning for Phase 3
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The International Process
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UNFCCC and the Kyoto Protocol
Framework Convention on Climate
Change
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Started at the Rio Summit, 1992
Entered into force March 1994
To consider actions to reduce global
warming (mitigation) and
To manage whatever temperature
increases are inevitable (adaptation)
Kyoto Protocol
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Sets up binding commitments
Adopted in Kyoto, December 1997
Entered into force February
2005
Australia signed December 2007
First commitment period ends in
2012
Rio +20: 2012: June 2012
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COP-15: Copenhagen
• The UNFCCC holds an annual
Conference of the Parties (to the Kyoto
Protocol) to negotiate action
• Copenhagen was to put in place a
successor to the Kyoto Protocol, and
develop a roadmap
• It failed, leaving the international process
in limbo
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Why did it fail?
• The UNFCCC
process is around one
country one vote
• The big emitters (now
and future) won’t
accept external
policing: USA +
– BRIC: Brazil, Russia,
India, China
– BASIC: Brazil, South
Africa, India, China
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1
China
Percentage
of global
total
16.36%
2
USA
15.74%
3
European Union
12.08%
4
Brazil
6.47%
5
Indonesia
4.63%
6
Russia
4.58%
7
India
4.25%
Rank Country
CO2 emissions from fossil fuels, total
USA + BRIC: Brazil, Russia, India, China
USA + BASIC: Brazil, South Africa, India, China
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Outcome from Copenhagen
• The Copenhagen Accord
• Countries can pledge reductions, which
they self police
• It isn’t enough:
– Even if countries met their pledges, unlikely to
avoid ‘dangerous’ climate change (warming
greater than 2oC)
• COP-16 Cancun; COP-17 Cape Town
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COP-16 Cancún
• REDD+ [Reducing emissions from deforestation and
degradation] – a roadmap but no financing
• Green Climate Fund: legal architecture for management
of the $100 billion by 2020
• MRV: Monitoring, reporting and verification of adaptation
and mitigation schemes
• Carbon Capture and Storage in the Clean Development
Mechanism (CDM)
• Kyoto Protocol "no gap" negotiations
• Restoration of the two-track negotiating process
• Cancun Adaptation Framework
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Over the next twelve months
• Busy times
– COP-17 Durban
– Rio+20 in mid 2012
– Big science meetings:
• Planet under Pressure
• Arizona Adaptation meeting
– IPCC Fifth Assessment author meetings, ready
for delivery in 2013/14
– Getting ready for the carbon economy in
Australia
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Who taxes carbon, who trades?
• Sweden introduced a carbon tax in 1991, followed by
Finland, Norway, the Netherlands
• Japan has mandated a “household energy tax”
equivalent to $21/ton of carbon
• The 25-member European Union has a carbon trading
scheme with a Phase 2 price around $10-12 per tonne
• New Zealand is in the transition period of its ETS
• Regional schemes: British Columbia, Boulder CO, NSW,
Tokyo …
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Role of the Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change
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Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change
Formed in 1988 under WMO and
UNEP
To provide assessments of the
science of climate change for the
UNFCCC
Responsibility to provide policy
makers with objective findings that
are policy relevant but not policy
prescriptive - an ‘honest broker’
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Inter-relationships of UNFCCC and IPCC
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The four AR4 reports
• The Fourth
Assessment began
in 2002
• The three 1000page Working
Group reports, and
the Synthesis
Report, were
published in 2007
• There were ~500
authors, three
review periods
• Some 2000 people
involved altogether
To produce an Assessment Report:
2002
Elections to appoint Chair, Co-Chairs and Bureau
2002
Decision taken to produce report
2003
Outline approved by governments
2004
Authors and review editors selected
2004 Sept
WGII 1st Lead Author Meeting - Vienna
2004 Dec
Zero Order Draft (ZOD) Delivered
2005 Feb
Informal Peer Review of ZOD Where the AR5 sits now
2005 Sept
Expert Review of FOD
2005 Mar
2005 June
2005 Nov
2006 Apr
2006 July
2006 Sept
2006 Nov
2007 Feb
2007 Apr
2007 Dec
2nd Lead Author Meeting - Australia
First Order Draft (FOD) Delivered
3rd Lead Author Meeting - Mexico
Second Order Draft (SOD) Delivered
Government and Expert Review of SOD
4th Lead Author Meeting – Cape Town
Final Government) Draft Delivered
Final Government Review
Approval by WGII Plenary
Publication
The people in an IPCC Assessment
• The IPCC Chair and the Vice-Chairs: elected
• Secretariat: standing
• Working Group:
– Reconstituted for each Assessment cycle
– 2 Co-Chairs and the Bureau: elected
– A Technical Support Unit
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Co-ordinating Lead Authors, 2 for each chapter
Lead Authors, typically 6 for each chapter
Review editors: 2 per chapter
Contributing Authors
= 2000/assessment
Expert and government reviewers
The product: The WGII Fourth Assessment
Summary for Policymakers
Technical Summary
1. Assessment of observed changes and responses in natural and managed systems
SECTORS AND SYSTEMS
2. New assessment methodologies and the characterisation of future conditions
3. Fresh water resources and their management
4. Ecosystems, their properties, goods and services
5. Food, fibre and forest products
6. Coastal systems and low-lying areas
7. Industry, settlement, and society
8. Human health
REGIONS
9: Africa, 10: Asia, 11: Australia and New Zealand, 12: Europe, 13: Latin America
14: North America, 15: Polar Regions (Arctic and Antarctic), 16: Small Islands
RESPONSES TO IMPACTS
17. Assessment of adaptation practices, options, constraints and capacity
18. Inter-relationships between adaptation and mitigation
19. Assessing key vulnerabilities and the risk from climate change
20. Perspectives on climate change and sustainability
The key is the
Summary for
Policymakers (SPM):
A 15 page summary
which is approved
by governments,
leading to
acceptance of the
underlying report
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The Approval Meeting
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Government negotiators on the floor
• IPCC on the podium: Co-Chairs, TSU, authors
• Text of SPM is projected line by line and approved
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Roughly 20-30% of species are likely to be at high
risk of irreversible extinction if global average
temperature exceeds 1.5-2.5°C. * N [4.4]
Text submitted to the
Final Government
Review
Text
projected
at the
Approval
Meeting
Final published
text
Approximately 20-30% of plant and animal species
assessed so far are likely to be at increased risk of
extinction if increases in global average temperature
exceed 1.5-2.5oC
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Contribution of the IPCC
1. Evolving the ‘accepted’ science
2. Definition of ‘dangerous’ climate change
– +2oC global mean temperature
– but baseline woolly
3. Thinking around how dangerous climate
change can be avoided
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Evolution of the science
FAR: insufficient observational evidence to make a
statement
SAR: ‘The balance of evidence suggests a discernible
human influence on global climate’
TAR: ‘Most of the observed warming over the last 50 years
is likely to have been due to the increase in
greenhouse gas concentrations’
AR4: ‘Most of the observed increase in global average
temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely
due to the observed increase in anthropogenic
greenhouse gas concentrations.’
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What is dangerous climate change?
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Avoiding dangerous climate change
Tell us that global
emissions have to
peak by 2015-2020,
and to decline
rapidly until 2050
and beyond if
dangerous climate
change is to be
avoided
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Strengths and weaknesses of the IPCC
• The rigorous review process, by scientists and governments
– Each chapter is reviewed three times
– Elapsed time means science has moved on
• The approval process, bringing together governments and
scientists to approve the SPM line-by-line
– Governments are ‘bought in’ to the key statements in the SPM
– Science is ‘watered down’
• It is no more and no less than an Assessment
– Perceived by governments as unthreatening and impartial
– Widely misunderstood to do more
• Each Assessment is largely free-standing
– Able to renew itself for every Assessment
– Lack of corporate memory
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Final messages
1.
Where do we stand:
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While governments hesitate, the evidence mounts:
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Science under threat
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IPCC subject to extensive evaluation e.g., IAC Report
Is the IPCC worthwhile?
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3.
Russian ban on wheat exports after the 2010 hot summer
Texas wildfires
Is there a need?
If so, how would we fill it without the IPCC?
The Australian carbon legislation is an important
global development
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