Transcript Slide 1

IPCC Working Group I: The Physical Science Basis
IPCC AR5 "The Physical Science Basis":
Challenges, Structure and Timetable
Thomas Stocker
Co-Chair Working Group I
University of Bern, Switzerland
IPCC Expert
Meeting
on Assessingto
and
Combining
MultiAssessment
Model Climate Projections
Working
Group
I Contribution
the
IPCC Fifth
Report
IPCC (2007):
• Warming in the climate system is unequivocal, as is now
evident from observations ....
• Most of the observed increase in global averaged temperature
... is very likely due to ... increase in GHG concentrations.
• Continued GHG emissions ... would induce many changes ...
that would very likely be larger than those observed ...
The Physical
Science Basis:
Challenges,
Structure,
TimetableReport
Working Group
I Contribution
to the
IPCC Fifth
Assessment
Overview of topical groups of chapters in WGI of AR5:
 Introduction
Chapter 1
 Observations and Paleoclimate Information
Chapters 2, 3, 4, 5
 Process Understanding
Chapters 6, 7
 From Forcing to Attribution of Climate Change
Chapters 8, 9, 10
 Future Climate Change and Predictability
Chapters 11, 12
 Integration
Chapters 13, 14
The full Outline of WGI is available on www.ipcc.unibe.ch
The Physical
Science Basis:
Challenges,
Structure,
TimetableReport
Working Group
I Contribution
to the
IPCC Fifth
Assessment
New features in WGI AR5
The full Outline of WGI is available on www.ipcc.unibe.ch
The Physical
Science Basis:
Challenges,
Structure,
TimetableReport
Working Group
I Contribution
to the
IPCC Fifth
Assessment
New features in WGI AR5
The full Outline of WGI is available on www.ipcc.unibe.ch
The Physical
Science Basis:
Challenges,
Structure,
TimetableReport
Working Group
I Contribution
to the
IPCC Fifth
Assessment
New features in WGI AR5
The full Outline of WGI is available on www.ipcc.unibe.ch
The Physical
Science Basis:
Challenges,
Structure,
TimetableReport
Working Group
I Contribution
to the
IPCC Fifth
Assessment
New features in WGI AR5
Annex I: Atlas of Global and Regional Climate Projections:
Editorial Team, Review Editor Team, Advisory Board
The full Outline of WGI is available on www.ipcc.unibe.ch
The Physical
Science Basis:
Challenges,
Structure,
TimetableReport
Working Group
I Contribution
to the
IPCC Fifth
Assessment
Timetable of the WGI Contribution to AR5:
2010
Jan-Mar 12 Nomination of CLAs, LAs, and REs by IPCC Focal Points
May
Selection of CLAs, LAs, and REs by WGI Bureau
Nov
LA1 Kunming, China
2011
Mar-Jun
Jul
Nov-Feb
Completion of zero-order draft, and review
LA Meeting 2
Completion of first-order draft, and review
2012
Apr
Jul 31
Aug-Nov
LA Meeting 3
cut-off for submitted papers
Completion of second-order draft, and review
2013
Jan
Mar 15
Jun
Jun-Aug
Sep 16-19
LA Meeting 4
cut-off for accepted papers
Completion of final draft
Final government distribution and review of SPM
WGI AR5 Approval Plenary
The Physical
Science Basis:
Challenges,
Structure,
TimetableReport
Working Group
I Contribution
to the
IPCC Fifth
Assessment
Timetable of the WGI Contribution to AR5:
2010
Jan-Mar 12 Nomination of CLAs, LAs, and REs by IPCC Focal Points
May
Selection of CLAs, LAs, and REs by WGI Bureau
Nov
LA1 Kunming, China
Your expertise in AR5 is needed:
Please contact your IPCC Focal Point
The Physical
Science Basis:
Challenges,
Structure,
TimetableReport
Working Group
I Contribution
to the
IPCC Fifth
Assessment
Challenges:
 Amount of material (literature, simulations) and the burden to the
scientific community
 Significantly broader model diversity and likely increase in
uncertainty
 Communication of uncertainties: what is known, what is emerging
 More cross-WG cooperation retaining full coherency
 Maintain the highest standards under increased pressure and
expectations in a highly politicized environment
 Transparency, Rigorosity, Comprehensiveness, Robustness
The Physical
Science Basis:
Challenges,
Structure,
TimetableReport
Working Group
I Contribution
to the
IPCC Fifth
Assessment
What do you require of WCRP ?
WCRP organizes and catalizes the science, defines priorities,
launches big programs, oversees multi-year international research
1. Clouds & Aerosols: Processes and Sensitivities
2. Decadal Prediction: Evaluation and Verification
3. Multi-Model Ensembles using Earth System Models
4. Regional Climate Change: D&A and Projections
5. Sea Level Rise and Ice Sheet Instabilities
6. Geoengineering
The Physical
Science Basis:
Challenges,
Structure,
TimetableReport
Working Group
I Contribution
to the
IPCC Fifth
Assessment
Timetable of the WGI Contribution to AR5:
2010
Jan-Mar 12 Nomination of CLAs, LAs, and REs by IPCC Focal Points
May
Selection of CLAs, LAs, and REs by WGI Bureau
Nov
LA1 Kunming, China
Your expertise in AR5 is needed:
Please contact your IPCC Focal Point
Information: [email protected]