Transcript Slajd 1

Macroecology and global change
Lonnie Thompson, Ohio State University
Melting of glaciers: During the last 27 years the Quelccaya glacier in Peru retracted. At its
place a lake of melted water appeared
Kilimanjaro
Temperate regions: From 1990 to 2005 the
Morteratsch glacier in the Bernina area
(Switzerland) retracted several ten meters.
The pole caps
During three years the north polar ice shields shrinked by about 30%.
http://www.grida.n
o/climate/ipcc_tar/
wg1/index.htm
http://www.ipcc.ch/SPM2feb07.pdf
The worst case scenario (steady rise in CO2 emissions
Predicted changes in winter precipitation up to 2100
Measured temperatures, precipitation and
snow cover (northern hemisphere) since
1850.
Predicted changes in summer precipitation up to 2100
Global Average Sea Level Change 1990 to 2100
Primary causes of endangerment for 98 US plant species
Water control
8%
Natural causes
1%
Exotics
6%
Agriculture
5%
Grazing
11%
Military
1%
Trampling
8%
Logging
7%
Fire control
4%
Collecting
10%
Off-road vehicles
6%
Oil, Gas, Mining
8%
Development
21%
Roads
4%
What is global change?
Major global environmental global changes
Climate change
Climate change is manifest through the increase of atmospheric CO2 and other
greenhouse gases
Stratospheric ozone loss
O3 protect us from the harmful effects of ultraviolet rays. It is destroyed by
chlorofluorocarbons
Air pollution
Air pollution, once thought to be of only local importance (SMOG) has now become a
global problem
Ocean pollution
Pollution more and more reduce the ability of the world’s oceans to sustain life and to
provide food
Major global environmental global changes
Fresh water issues
A rising number of countries has problems to provide it’s people with fresh water
Soil degradation
Over the past 50 years, about 11% of the earth’s vegetated land surface has
experienced moderate top extreme soil degradation
Biodiversity loss
Although estimates are very imprecise it seems clear that we are actually undergoing a
phase of mass extinction.
Human activities
Global changes
Biogeological cycles
- elevated CO2 and other
greenhouse gases
- nutrient loading
- water consumption
Economic
benefits
Cultural
benefits
Land use
- type
- intensity
Species invasion
Biodiversity
- richness
- evenness
- composition
- interactions
Life history traits
Evolutionary traits
Ecosystem processes
A simplified model of the role of biodiversity in global change
Modified from Chapin et al. (2000)
White - red - jack pine
Spruce fire
Longleaf - slash pine
Loblolly - shortical pine
Oak - pine
Oak - hickory
Oak - gum - cypress
Elm - ash - cottonwood
Maple - beech - birch
Aspen - birch
-750
-500
-250
0
250
500
750
2
Area in 1000 km
Potential change in area occupied by 10 North American forest types.
Mean values of five climatic scenarios that gave similar results
(modified. From Iverson and Prasad 2001).
Acadia
Big Bend
Glacier
GSM
Shenandoah
Yellowstone
Yosemite
Zion
Current
species
number
43
48
52
48
33
53
64
53
Species
lost
Species
gained
Gained lost
3
10
2
8
3
0
6
1
8
22
45
29
11
49
25
41
5
12
43
21
8
49
19
40
Rel. species turnover
Park
Ranked
geogr.
position
3
8
1
7
4
2
5
6
1
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0
Gaines
2
R = 0.27
2
R = 0.58
Losses
0
2
4
6
8
10
Rank geographic position [north to south]
Data from Burns et al. (2003)
Major drivers on changes in biodiversity
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
Land use
Climate
N deposition
Biotic exchange
CO2
Relative effects of major drivers on changes in biodiversity. Land use was
given the value of 1.
CO2
Exchange
N
Exchange
CO2
Exchange
CO2
N
Climate
Land use
CO2
Exchange
N
Land use
CO2
Exchange
Climate
Streams
1
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
N
Climate
Climate
Land use
CO2
Exchange
N
1
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
N
Climate
Land use
Land use
CO2
Exchange
N
Climate
Desert
Tropical forests
1
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
Land use
CO2
Exchange
Climate
Land use
CO2
CO2
Exchange
N
1
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
1
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
N
1
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
Mediteranean
Southern temperate forests
1
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
Climate
Land use
CO2
Exchange
N
Climate
Land use
Northern temperate forests
Climate
1
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
1
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
Land use
Exchange
Land use
CO2
N
Climate
Land use
Exchange
Lakes
Savanna
Grassland
Boreal
1
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
N
1
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
1
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
Climate
Apine
Arctic
Effect of five important drivers on future biodiversity change for 12 terrestrial
and freshwater ecosystems or biomes.
Relative amounts of change under the assumption that major drivers act independent
Relative amounts of change under the assumption that major drivers act synergistic
http://www.deh.gov.au/biodiversity/science/bdac/greenhouse/index.html
Climate Change Impacts on Biodiversity in Australia
Ecosystem/taxa
Expected impacts
Reference
Vertebrates
Range reductions are suggested for the majority
of species although a few might increase their
range. For example in south-east Australia, of 42
species studied, 15 may have no suitable
o
bioclimate if there is a 3 C rise in temperature. For
some species (such as Mountain Pygmy Possum
Burramys parvus, and some frogs) their bioclimate
may disappear completely if mean temperatures
o
rise 1 . Higher CO2 will tend to reduce foliage
quality below critical levels.
Brereton et al.
1995, Dexter et
al. 1995,
Chapman &
Milne 1998,
PouliquenYoung &
Newman 2000,
Hilbert et al.
2001b, Kanowski
2001
Invertebrates
The bioclimates of 92% of butterfly species are
predicted to decrease, with 83% declining by at
least 50% if mean temperatures increase by 2.1 to
3.9°C. Large changes in range are projected.
About 10% of species studied are vulnerable due
to particular life history characteristics. Foliage
quality could be affected, as for vertebrates.
Beaumont &
Hughes 2002,
Johns & Hughes
2002
http://www.geo.ucl.ac.be/accelerates/
Global biodiversity conservation priorities
CE: crisis ecoregions; BH: biodiversity hotspots; EBA: endemic rd areas; CPD: centers of
plant diversity; MC: megadiversity countries; G200: global 200 ecoregions; HBWA: high
biodiversity wilderness areas; FF: frontier forests; LW: last of the wild
From Brooks T. M. et al. (2006)
Spatial overlap (percents) between nine priority approaches
Crisis ecoregion
Biodiverity hotspots
Endemic bird areas
Centres of plant
diversity
Megadiversity
countries
Global 200
ecoregions
High biodiversity
wilderness areas
Frontier forests
Last of the wild
Percent land area
High
Centres of
Megadiversi Global 200 biodiversity
plant
ty countries ecoregions wilderness
diversity
areas
10
44
36
2
21
46
78
0
24
68
70
7
Crisis
ecoregion
Biodiverity
hotspots
Endemic
bird areas
61
43
33
50
14
33
-
34
40
28
-
48
66
38
21
19
12
-
28
33
19
15
6
0
15
4
5
30
8
4
16
11
4
10
From Brooks T. M. et al. (2006)
Frontier
forests
Last of the
wild
1
5
11
4
6
11
18
14
21
53
18
11
24
48
-
16
16
28
19
79
72
-
41
53
13
7
9
39
34
35
64
43
37
35
17
8
28
9
73
24
Today’s reading
Climate change: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Climate_change
Climate change and biodiversity:
http://www.jncc.gov.uk/pdf/MJHGlobalclimatechange_14.08.03.pdf
IPCC: http://www.ipcc.ch/index.htm