Transcript The Calculus of Sustainability

Thomas J. Pfaff
Ithaca College
What is Sustainability?
 Development (Living in such a way) that meets the
needs of the present without compromising the ability
of future generations to meet their own needs.
-1987 at the World Commission on Environment and
Development (the Brundtland Commission, former
Norwegian Prime Minister Gro Harlem Brundtland)
Three E’s or P’s of Sustainability
Economy
Equity
Environment
Joint Science Academies Statement
It has become increasingly clear that there are very
serious difficulties related to sustainability and
security of energy. These include: Major global and
regional impacts on the environment, climate change,
and health from an extrapolation of current energy
sources and systems.
June 2006
National Academies Report: Climate
Change
The rising temperature observed since 1978 are
particularly noteworthy because the rate of increase is
so high and because, during the same period, the
energy reaching the Earth from the Sun had been
measured precisely enough to conclude that Earth’s
warming was not due to changes in the Sun.
-March 2006
Average Global Temperature
15.80
y = 0.0003x2 - 0.0047x + 13.977
R² = 0.8187
15.60
15.40
Degrees Celcius
15.20
15.00
14.80
14.60
14.40
14.20
14.00
13.80
13.60
0
10
20
30
40
50
Years After 1950
60
70
80
90
A Look at Global Temperature
T(x)=0.00054x2 -0.00846x+57.1586 F
T’(x)=0.00108x-0.00846 F/year
x years after 1950
 T(57)= 58.43 F and T’(57)=0.0531 F/year
 In 2007 the average global temperature was 58.43 deg F
and increasing at a rate of 0.0531 deg F per year.
- Now Ask a Question About This-
Temperature Predictions
 T(75)=59.6 F and T(150)=68.04 F
 The model predicts that in 2025 the average
temperature will be 59.6 deg F, and in 2100 it will be
68.04 deg F, an increase of 1.13 and 9.61 deg F,
respectively, since 2007.
–Now Ask a Question About This-
More Temperature Predictions
 Using T’(57)=.0531 F/year
 If global temperatures continue to increase at current
rates, then by 2025 there will be an increase of 0.96
deg F and by 2100 there will be an increase of 4.94 deg
F. The average global temperature in those years will
be 59.39 and 63.37, respectively.
Average Global Temperature
15.80
y = 0.0003x2 - 0.0047x + 13.977
R² = 0.8187
15.60
15.40
Degrees Celcius
15.20
15.00
14.80
14.60
14.40
14.20
14.00
13.80
13.60
0
10
20
30
40
50
Years After 1950
60
70
80
90
-National Academies Report on Climate Change
(March 2006)
Our Changing Climate Report
 http://www.ucsusa.org/assets/documents/global_war
ming/our-changing-climate-final.pdf
 http://www.climatechoices.org/ca/index.html
18
y = -0.0002926198x6 + 0.0097127011x5 - 0.1186283413x4 + 0.7083540295x3 2.5575749937x2 + 5.2573953560x + 11.6584848488
R² = 0.9967941924
16
Sea Ice Extent in mill Sq Km
14
12
10
1980 extent in million square km
8
2008 extent in million square km
6
4
y = -0.0006542756x6 + 0.0226483472x5 - 0.2930559221x4 + 1.8185290260x3 6.0036780509x2 + 10.0818539575x + 8.3978787884
R² = 0.9833100195
2
0
0
2
4
6
8
Month
10
12
14
Summary of Sea Ice
 1980
 Max: 16.13 msk, x=2.59
 Min: 7.86 msk, x=8.79
 Inf: -2.20 msk/month,
x=6.44
 Melt Period: 6.20
months
 2008
 Max: 15.11 msk, x=2.26
 Min: 5.40 msk, x=8.80
 Inf: -2.84 msk/month,
x=6.77
 Melt Period: 6.54
months
Glacier Pair Images
 http://www.windows.ucar.edu/teacher_resources/glac
ier_then_now.pdf
M. King Hubbert’s (1903-1989), chief consultantgeneral geology- for shell development company,
1956 paper Nuclear Energy and the Fossil Fuels.
Yearly U.S. Oil Production to 1955
3500000
Thousdands of Barrels
3000000
2500000
2000000
Data to 1955
1500000
Model through 2007
1000000
500000
0
1840
1860
1880
1900
1920
1940
Year
1960
1980
2000
2020
Yearly U.S. Oil Production through
2007
4000000
3500000
thousand barrels
3000000
2500000
2000000
Original Data
Model
1500000
1000000
500000
0
1840
1860
1880
1900
1920
1940
year
1960
1980
2000
2020
Normal Density:
 55% of all domestic oil was consumed from 1960 to
2000:
 99% of all domestic oil is predicted to be consumed by
2036:
Resources
 http://www.ithaca.edu/tpfaff/sustainability.htm
 http://www.ucsusa.org/assets/documents/global_war
ming/our-changing-climate-final.pdf
 http://www.climatechoices.org/ca/index.html
 http://www.theoildrum.com/
 http://narccap.ucar.edu/data/index.html