Transcript Document

Workshop on “Energy, greenhouse gas emissions
and climate change scenarios” (29-30 June 2004,
EEA, Copenhagen)
Introduction to 2005 State of the
Environment and Outlook report
and workshop objectives
André Jol
Group leader air and climate change
European Environment Agency
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Rationale behind the SoEOR2005
• EEA regulation: “EEA shall publish a report on
the state of, trends in and prospects for the
environment every five years, supplemented by
indicator reports focusing upon specific issues”
• Support the mid-term review of the 6th EAP
• Link to the EU Sustainable Development
Strategy (integration of environment into
sectors)
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SoEOR2005 : 9 Sub-Reports
SR1: Unsustainable household consumption?
SR2: Environmental aspects of enlargement
SR3: Halting the loss of biodiversity
SR4: Sustainable use and management of natural resources
SR5: Policy integration
SR6: Climate change, air quality and sustainable energy
SR7: European Environment Outlook
SR8: Europe’s environment and the global dimension
SR9: Environment and health
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SoEOR2005 - Timetable
2004
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• Preparation of First Drafts of sub-reports
• First consultation on sub-reports
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• Consultation SRs
• Preparation of First Draft of
SoEOR
• Decision on publication of SRs
2005
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• First Draft of
SoEOR2005
• Final Drafts and
Publication of selected
SRs
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• Consultation on
SoEOR2005
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• Editing, Publication, Dissemination
• SoEOR2005 translations
• Communication
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Time schedule sub report 6 Climate change, air
quality and sustainable energy
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Draft scenario results: March
Advisory group meeting: 14 April
Additional scenarios: April-August
Scenario review at workshop: 29-30 June
Finalising technical report on scenarios: Sep
Second advisory group meeting: Sep/Oct
Draft sub-report: Aug/Oct
Review sub-report: Dec/Jan 2005
Final sub-report: Feb 2005
Advisory Group
To provide advice to EEA on:
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the outline of the sub-report
the assumptions of the “sustainable emission pathway”
scenario and variants
the identification of similar national/international
reports/activities from which EEA could benefit, and help
to enhance the added value of the EEA project
approaches for and timing of consultation with EEA
member countries, European Commission, industrial and
environmental NGOs
events for possible launch of the main results
Participation, meetings:
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DG ENV, DG TREN, WBGU, IIASA, WHO/EMEP, EEA SC
meeting twice at EEA: 14 April 2004 and September
asked to participate in the workshop on 29-30 June
Focus of the EEA sub-report
• EU 6EAP and SDS, aimed at changing the global and
European economy towards sustainability
• Possible medium-long term targets for both climate
change and air quality (2020/2030)
• Effectiveness of existing policies and measures (past)
and future (2010-2030, baseline scenario)
• A “sustainable emission pathway” scenario based on
the long-term EU 6EAP climate change objective (of
+2C above pre-industrial levels), which requires
substantial reduction of EU GHG emissions by 2030
• Scenario analysis of possible elements of a
sustainability transition in energy and in other sectors
• “Sustainable emission pathway” scenario impact on
air quality in Europe (closely coordinated with CAFE)
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Use of key Commission and other studies
• Clean Air for Europe Programme baseline
scenario 2020 (to be finalised Sep 2004)
(consortium lead by IIASA)
• Long Range Energy Modelling baseline scenario
(2030) (NTUA)
• Greenhouse gas reduction pathways in UNFCCC
up to 2025 (consortium of CNRS, RIVM, NTUA,
KUL)
• Other studies: WBGU, IEA, IPCC, EMEP, WHO
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Use of EEA projects and reports
• Annual analysis of progress towards the Kyoto
Protocol targets (EU GHG Monitoring mechanism,
underlying annual Commission Communication)
(2004)
• Analysis of national programmes and projections
under the National Emission Ceiling Directive
(2004)
• Report on impacts of climate change in Europe
(2004)
• EEA Sectoral reports: Transport and
Environment, Energy and Environment,
Agriculture and Environment
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Chapters in the report (1)
Part A Climate change and energy
1. Introduction of the issue and the policy frameworks
2. Long term sustainable climate change targets and
equitable emission targets by 2050/2030
3. Progress to and costs of reaching the Kyoto Protocol and
burden sharing targets by 2010
4. Developments in Europe in energy supply and demand in
the past, by 2010/2030 with existing policies and
measures
5. GHG emissions scenario with existing policies and
measures by 2030
6. Current and projected (2050/2100) climate change and its
impacts
7. A potentially sustainable GHG emission pathway and
energy system by 2030
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Chapters in the report (2)
Part B Air quality
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
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Introduction of the issue and the policy frameworks
State of air quality/emissions in 2002
Progress towards reaching current air emission and air
quality targets by 2010
Air pollutant emissions and air quality with existing
policies and measures by 2020/2030
Co-benefits of a potentially sustainable GHG emission
pathway by 2020/2030 for air pollution through reduced
emissions and costs
Scenario with additional policies and measures to achieve
(possible) future strict 2020/2030 air quality and
emission targets
Outlook activities for SoEOR2005 (1)
• In the SoEOR2005, outlooks across sectors / themes to:
• Show distance to politically agreed targets and
potential co-benefits between policies
• Provide early warnings of environmental impacts
(compared with “sustainable” targets)
• Show potential alternative pathways and strategies
• Both quantitative and qualitative outlooks are developed;
quantitative outlooks whenever models are available and
appropriate (baseline projections + policy options
scenarios + long-term explorative scenarios)
• Geographical coverage: EEA member countries (31)
• Temporal coverage: up to 2020-2030 (policy relevant);
explorative approaches up to 2050/2100 (env. impacts).
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Outlook activities for SoEOR2005 (2)
• Outlooks are developed for sectors and themes:
• air & climate change (energy, transport, agriculture)
• waste and material flows
• water quality and quantity
• nature protection and biodiversity
• terrestrial environment and land use development.
• A common set of assumptions for key baseline scenario
driving forces (e.g. economic and population growths,
energy flows) is used to ensure consistency and facilitate
cross-cutting analysis (DG TREN-LREM: ‘European
Energy and Transport Trends to 2030’).
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Outlook activities for SoEOR2005 (3)
Outlooks
for the SoEOR2005
report
Outlooks
for the SoEOR2005
report
Air and Climate Change
Air and Climate Change
Macro-economic assumptions & outlooks
Macro-economic
assumptions & outlooks
(GEM-E3, WEFA,
Stakeholder meetings)
(GEM-E3, WEFA, Stakeholder meetings)
Energy
(PRIMES)
Energy
(PRIMES)
Transport
(SCENES/TREMOVE)
Freight transport
(PRIMES)
Transport
(SCENES/TREMOVE)
TIMER/
FAIR
TIMER/
FAIR
Environmental impact
assessment
IMAGE
RAINS
Environmental
impact
assessment
IMAGE
Agriculture
Projections of livestock,
Agriculture
fertilizers consumption and
Projections of livestock,
crops pattern fertilizers consumption and
(CAPSIM)
crops pattern
(CAPSIM)
Freight transport
(PRIMES)
Cooperation with:
Institute for Prospective Technological Studies
Cooperation with:
(IPTS, JRC-EC) on:
(1) passenger
car transport
Institute
for Prospective Technological Studies
(2) energy-intensive sectors of the industry,
andJRC-EC) on:
(IPTS,
(3) a global perspective on energy, transport
and car transport
(1) passenger
climate change
(2) energy-intensive sectors of the industry, and
(POLES)
(3) a global perspective on energy, transport and
climate change
(POLES)
RAINS
Wastes and Material Flows
Water
Water
Nature Protection and
ETC, Socio-economic and
ETC, Scenarios for
Projections of water use and
Biodiversity
technical waste stream specific
eutrophication, focussing on
water stress, and assessment
ETC, Analysis of ecosystems
modellingand Material Flows
phosphorous and waste water
(MIRABEL)
Wastes
Water of climate change impacts Water
Nature Protection and
treatment & provision
ETC, Socio-economic and
ETC,ofScenarios for (WaterGAP)
Projections of water use and
Biodiversity
existing water use data
technical waste stream specific
modelling
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Legend
ETCs Work Programme
eutrophication, focussing on
phosphorous and waste water
treatment & provision of
existing water use data
CAFE (Clean Air for
Europe) Baseline
water stress, and assessment
of climate change impacts
(WaterGAP)
ETC, Analysis of ecosystems
(MIRABEL)
Work carried out outside the ETCs
and CAFE frameworks (Calls for
Tender, cooperation)
* Tools, models and frameworks are indicated in parenthesis
SIS, Feb. 2004
Objectives of the workshop 29/30 June
• Exchange experiences in scenario modelling approaches
and outcomes, including studies on long-term
greenhouse gas emission reduction strategies, within
EEA member countries, the European Commission and
in other organisations including NGOs
• Discuss the initial results of the EEA scenario work,
performed by the European Topic Centre on Air and
Climate Change for EEA’s 2005 State of the
Environment and Outlook report and advise EEA on next
steps
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Questions for the workshop
• What would be developments in EU energy use and
supply, greenhouse gas emissions and climate change
impacts by 2030-2050 with no further policy actions?
• What should the reduction of EU greenhouse gas
emissions be by 2030, to be consistent with the EU
long-term climate objective, under different possible
future global emission reduction schemes?
• Which policies and which technological developments
are needed to achieve substantial EU greenhouse gas
emission reductions by 2030 and what are their
costs?
• What are the most relevant uncertainties in 2030 in
scientific aspects, policy areas, and in socio-economic
developments?
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Questions for break out group 1 ”Greenhouse gas
emission targets for 2030 (methodological aspects)”
• Which methodologies are most suited for the EU for assessing
dangerous anthropogenic climate change (article 2 of UNFCCC)?
• Which global long-term climate change targets could the EU
select? (Any other targets than the 6EAP target of +2C global
temperature increase?)
• Which global greenhouse gas and carbon dioxide concentration
levels are consistent with such a global climate change target?
• By when should global emissions peak? (Should we aim at
convergence of global per capita emissions and if so, in which
year should this be realized?)
• What could be targets for industrialized countries, for developing
countries and for EU25 for 2030?
• How much of the target for the EU25 should be fulfilled through
domestic action and how much through international emission
trading?
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Questions for break out group 2 ”Technological
developments and policies and measures”
• Which targets for renewables could be selected for 2020 and
2030?
• Which technological developments are expected without specific
climate change driven policies?
• Which energy efficiency and renewable energy technologies for
reducing greenhouse gas emissions are most promising by 2030?
(Regarding environmental effectiveness, costs, etc)
• What are expected developments of nuclear energy by 2030
regarding safety, waste management, proliferation and costs?
• What kind of research and development is needed to enhance
energy efficient and renewable energy technologies, and in which
areas can Europe take the lead?
• Which new policies and measures are required for the long term
transition of the energy system?
• What are the costs of these policies and measures and which
have the highest priorities?
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