Transcript Slide 1

HART
RESEARCH
ASSOC I AT ES
League of Conservation Voters
Voters’ Attitudes toward EPA Carbon
Regulations and Climate Change
Key findings from survey among likely voters
in 11 Senate swing states
October 2013
Methodology
 Survey among 1,113 likely voters in the following states:
 Survey dates: October 9 – 13, 2013
 Margin of error = ±2.9 percentage points for the total sample
and higher for subgroups
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Survey of Voters in 11 Senate Swing States – October 2013 – Hart Research for
Three in four voters support EPA’s regulations to
set limits on carbon pollution from power plants.
The U.S. EPA is proposing regulations that would set limits on the amount of carbon pollution
that power plants can release into the air. Do you favor or oppose these regulations to set
limits on the amount of carbon pollution power plants can release into the air?
Favor new EPA regulations:
74%
Strongly
Somewhat
Oppose new EPA regulations:
73%
24%
All voters
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24%
46%
41%
12%
Somewhat
73%
23%
44%
Strongly
13%
12%
Obama states
Romney states
Survey of Voters in 11 Senate Swing States – October 2013 – Hart Research for
Solid majorities support the regulations across
the electorate, even among Republicans.
The U.S. EPA is proposing regulations that would set limits on the amount of carbon pollution
that power plants can release into the air. Do you favor or oppose these regulations to set
limits on the amount of carbon pollution power plants can release into the air?
Favor Oppose
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Men
Women
65%
81%
32%
16%
Age 18 to 34
Age 35 to 49
Age 50 to 64
Age 65/over
87%
75%
69%
68%
12%
22%
28%
28%
High school grad/less
Some college
Four-year college grads
Postgrad education
70%
73%
71%
78%
25%
24%
25%
20%
Favor Oppose
92%
72%
58%
6%
26%
38%
Initial Trial Heat for Senate
92%
Democrat
57%
Republican
71%
Undecided
6%
40%
25%
Democrats
Independents
Republicans
Survey of Voters in 11 Senate Swing States – October 2013 – Hart Research for
Debate over EPA carbon limits improves generic
Democratic Senate candidate’s standing in the
trial heat.
Initial Trial Heat
Trial Heat/EPA Regulation Position
Next year, in the election for United States
Senate in your state, are you more likely to
vote for the Democratic candidate or the
Republican?
Next year, if the election for U.S. senator in your
state are between a Democrat who supports the
new EPA regulations to set limits on carbon
pollution and a Republican who opposes them,
will you be more likely to vote for the Democrat
or the Republican?
More likely to vote
for Democrat
+2 GOP
40%
42%
More likely to vote
for Republican
48%
+14 DEM
34%
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Survey of Voters in 11 Senate Swing States – October 2013 – Hart Research for
Jobs, our moral obligation, and public health
concerns are all convincing reasons to favor the
regulations.
Proportions saying each is a very or fairly convincing reason to SUPPORT
limits on carbon pollution from power plants
63% According to a nonpartisan group, the new EPA pollution safeguards could spark
innovation and result in a net increase of 210,000 jobs by upgrading older power
plants and increasing energy efficiency. These are good paying jobs that can't be
outsourced. (very convincing = 42%)
58% Just like our parents and grandparents handed us a better planet, we have a moral
obligation to protect the planet for our kids and grandkids. Asthma rates have
doubled in the past 30 years and our kids will suffer more asthma attacks as air
pollution gets worse. (very convincing = 44%)
57% We already set limits for arsenic, mercury, and lead pollution, but we let power
plants release as much carbon pollution as they want. It's just common sense that we
should not allow polluters to release unlimited amounts of carbon pollution. It's time to
set a limit for carbon pollution that affects public health. (very convincing = 41%)
55% The new EPA safeguards can form the basis for a strong clean energy economy.
Despite the claims of polluters, the truth is that setting these new standards could
increase the use of clean energy sources like wind and solar, create more than 200,000
jobs, and save families money on their monthly electric bills. (very convincing = 42%)
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Survey of Voters in 11 Senate Swing States – October 2013 – Hart Research for
Not
convincing
16%
19%
17%
21%
Opposition arguments fail to convince majorities
to oppose the regulations.
Proportions saying each is a very or fairly convincing reason to OPPOSE
limits on carbon pollution from power plants
47% Every American will feel the effect of these regulations in the form of higher energy
Not
convincing
30%
bills. The new regulations will force utilities to spend billions of dollars and will drive up
the price of electricity, resulting in higher bills for families and forcing small
businesses to cut their workforces. (very convincing = 36%)
40% The new EPA regulations are going to kill American jobs. The coal-based electricity
30%
industry supports 760,000 jobs in the United States. Enacting these new regulations
puts these jobs at risk and will have harmful and lasting consequences for our economy
and our families. (very convincing = 28%)
38% These strict new regulations are a new front in Barack Obama's war on coal. Obama
39%
continues to side with radical environmentalists and this is yet another new regulation
that puts the squeeze on America's coal industry and on middle-class Americans. (very
convincing = 26%)
35% Countries like China and India do not follow these kinds of rules for their power
plants. So any steps the United States takes will not make much difference in reducing
climate change, while putting American companies at a competitive disadvantage
compared with Indian and Chinese companies. (very convincing = 23%)
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Survey of Voters in 11 Senate Swing States – October 2013 – Hart Research for
43%
Support for the EPA regulations remains high
after both sides are presented.
Thinking back on everything we've discussed, would you want your U.S. senator to support
or oppose the new EPA regulations to set limits on the amount of carbon pollution that power
plants can release into the air?
Want senator to support new EPA regulations
64%
64%
24%
All voters
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Want senator to oppose new EPA regulations
62%
26%
Obama states
23%
Romney states
Survey of Voters in 11 Senate Swing States – October 2013 – Hart Research for
Pro and con arguments further improve generic
Democratic Senate candidate’s standing on the
ballot test.
More likely to vote
for Democrat
Undecided/
No difference
Initial Trial Heat
Trial Heat Based on
EPA Regulation Position
Final Trial Heat after
Pro-Con Arguments
+2 GOP
+14 DEM
+15 DEM
42%
40%
18%
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More likely to vote
for Republican
34%
34%
48%
18%
49%
17%
Survey of Voters in 11 Senate Swing States – October 2013 – Hart Research for
Overwhelmingly, voters trust the EPA more than
Congress on carbon pollution regulations.
Who do you trust more to decide whether there should be regulations on carbon pollution,
the Environmental Protection Agency or the United States Congress?
Environmental Protection Agency
United States Congress
EPA Congress
67%
66%
65%
Democrats
86%
4%
Independents
61%
12%
Republicans
51%
21%
Initial Trial Heat for Senate
12%
All voters
10
10%
Obama states
Democrat
86%
4%
Republican
47%
22%
Undecided
67%
7%
15%
Romney states
Survey of Voters in 11 Senate Swing States – October 2013 – Hart Research for
Two in three voters believe that climate change
is a serious problem.
Thinking specifically about the issue of climate change, do you think climate change is
a very serious problem, a somewhat serious problem, not that much of a problem, or
not a problem at all?
All voters
Serious
Not a
problem problem
65%
33%
Very
serious
39%
Not at all
15%
Very/somewhat
serious problem
11
Obama states
Romney states
64%
67%
34%
31%
Democrats
Independents
Republicans
91%
65%
42%
8%
32%
56%
Initial Trial Heat for Senate
Democrat
Republican
Undecided
92%
38%
71%
7%
60%
25%
Not much/
not a problem at all
Survey of Voters in 11 Senate Swing States – October 2013 – Hart Research for
This research confirms ad test evidence that there
is a strong offense to be played against climate
change deniers.
If you heard that a candidate for U.S. Senate in your state denied basic science and
said that climate change is not occurring, would this make you more favorable or less
favorable to this candidate?
More favorable
64%
63%
19%
All voters
12
Less favorable
20%
Obama states
63%
19%
Romney states
Survey of Voters in 11 Senate Swing States – October 2013 – Hart Research for
Candidates who deny climate change are
vulnerable to criticisms about ties to Big Oil
and their extreme political agendas.
Gives me very major concerns about U.S. Senate candidate who denies
basic climate science/opposes taking any action to address climate change
Gives me fairly major concerns
about the candidate
This candidate is closely tied to oil and coal companies and does what is best
for them rather than what is best for the public. Big oil and coal companies fund
climate change deniers to protect their profits, and this candidate denies the
existence of climate change in order to protect his political career.
72%
55%
This candidate is someone who puts politics and their extreme agenda ahead
of scientific facts. Ninety-seven percent of scientific experts agree that
climate change is occurring, yet this candidate rejects science and denies that
climate change is happening.
48%
13
65%
Survey of Voters in 11 Senate Swing States – October 2013 – Hart Research for