Transcript Slide 1

Global Climate Change Alliance:
Intra-ACP Programme
Training Module
Mainstreaming Climate Change
Module 1 - Understanding the basics
of climate change science
Ms Isabelle Mamaty
Senior Expert
Climate Support Facility
An initiative of the ACP Group of States funded by the European Union
Understanding the basics
of climate change
 Learning objectives:
o To enhance knowledge on climate change and its
potential impacts
o To enhance knowledge on impacts of climate
change at regional and sectoral levels
 Expected outcomes:
o Increased knowledge on the causes of climate
change
o Increased knowledge on the effect of greenhouse
gases and their main sources
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Is climate change real?
 IPCC 4th Assessment Report:
o “Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, as is
now evident from observations of increases in global
average air and ocean temperatures, widespread
melting of snow and ice and rising global average sea
level”.
 Observed trends:
o Recent years warmest on record
o Accelerating increase in global surface temperature and
ocean temperature
o Accelerating rise in sea level
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Some observations: trends in
global mean temperature
Source: IPCC (2007b) 4th
Assessment Report,
WG I – FAQ 3.1 Fig. 1
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Observations and projections:
global sea level change
Source: IPCC
(2007b) 4th
Assessment
Report, WG I –
FAQ 5.1 Fig. 1
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Observations: intensity of
cyclones
Worldwide: %age of Category 1 cyclone (blue curve), sum of Category 2 and 3 (green curve), sum
of category 4 and 5 (red curve) on 5 years period. Dashed lines are averages for each category
from 1970 to 2004 (Source: Petit & Prudent 2008, p. 42, from Webster et al 2005)
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What are the causes of
climate change?
 Natural variation is an inherent feature of
the climate (e.g. driven by solar cycles, earth orbit,
volcanoes)
 But anthropogenic emissions of long-lived
greenhouse gases in the atmosphere are
a major cause of the changes now being
observed
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The greenhouse effect
Source: WWF/IPCC,
http://wwf.panda.org/about_our_earth/aboutcc/how_cc_works/
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What are the main
greenhouse gases?
 By decreasing order of abundance:
o water vapour (H2O)
o carbon dioxide (CO2)
o methane (CH4)
o nitrous oxide (N2O)
o ozone (O3)
o chlorofluorocarbons (CFC)
o other halogenated compounds (i.e. gases containing
fluorine, chlorine, bromine or iodine) (e.g. hydrofluorocarbons –
HFC, sulphur hexafluoride – SF6)
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Evolution of GHG
concentrations
Source: IPCC
(2007b) 4th
Assessment
Report, WG I –
FAQ 2.1 Fig. 1
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Globally, what are the main
sources of GHG emissions?
Source: Herzog (2005) – World Resources Institute
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What are the main
consequences?
Biophysical
impacts
Socioeconomic
impacts
Changes in t°
Changes in rainfall
patterns
Shifts in seasons
More frequent or severe
storms, floods, droughts
Raised sea level
Erosion, desertification
Changes in water
quality/availability
Changes in ecosystems
Biodiversity loss
Disease & pest outbreaks,
...
Damage to or destruction
of infrastructure
Reduced food security,
malnutrition
Economic disruption, loss
of livelihoods, social
disruption
Increased mortality and
morbidity
Reduced availability of
hydropower
Conflicts, population
displacement, human
migrations, ...
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Impacts of climate change (1)
Flood, Fiji
Lagoon, Benin
Degraded
mangroves, Guyana,
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Limpopo dry season, Mozambique
Impacts of climate change (2)
Coastal erosion, Benin
Solomon Island
Coastal erosion, Vanuatu
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Drought, Senegal
Regional impacts of climate
change in Africa
 By 2020
o Decreased in agricultural production, crop yields
o Water stress due to climate change for 75 to 250 million of
people (particularly in northern and southern Africa)
 By 2050
o Sea-level rise in coastal areas by 2050
o large part of the western Sahel and southern-central Africa
are likely to become unsuitable to malaria transmission
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Regional impacts of climate
change in Asia and Central Asia
 By 2020
o Risk of hunger increase from 7% to 14% (additional 49 million people)
o 10% increase in agricultural irrigation demand in arid and semi arid region of
east Asia due to 1°C increase in temperature
 By 2050
o Risk of hunger: additional 132 million people
o Decrease in fresh water availability by 2050
o Greatest risk of increased flooding from the sea and in some mega deltas,
flooding from the rivers
o Endemic morbidity and mortality due to diarrhoeal disease primarily associated
with floods and droughts
o Pressure on natural resources and the environment associated with rapid
urbanisation, industrialisation and economic development : up to 50% of Asia’s
total biodiversity is at risk
o 24% to 30% of coral reefs may be lost in the next 10 to 30 years
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Regional impacts of climate change
in Latin America and Caribbean
 By 2020
o
o
o
o
Generalised reductions in rice yields and increases in soybean yields
Risk of hunger for additional 5 million people
Water stress: additional 7 to 77 million people
Heat stress, malaria, dengue fever, cholera and other water-borne
diseases
 By 2050
o Desertification and salinisation projected to affect 50% of agricultural lands
o Risk of hunger for additional 26 million people
o Gradual replacement of tropical forest by savannah in eastern Amazonia
o Risk of significant biodiversity loss in many areas of tropical
Latin America
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Regional impacts of climate
change in small Island States
 By 2020
o
o
o
o
Subsistence and commercial agriculture and fisheries adversely affected
Increase water stress
Sea-level rise
Deterioration of coastal conditions: erosion of beaches and coral bleaching
 By 2050
o Reduction of water resources to the point where they become insufficient
to meet demand during low-rainfall periods
o In the Pacific a 10% reduction in average rainfalls is likely to correspond to
20% reduction in the size of the freshwater lens on Tarawa Atoll, Kiribati
o Coral bleaching may become an annual or biannual event in the next 30 to
50 years or sooner
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Regional impacts of climate change
in Central and Eastern Europe
 By 2020
o Risk of floods especially in northern areas
o Summer river flows may decrease by up to 50% in central Europe and by
up to 80% in some rivers in southern Europe
o Annual river runoff decreases in Southern Europe by 0% to 23%
(compared to 1961-1990 baseline)
o Increase of snow-melt floods
 By 2050
o Decline of annual runoff in south-eastern Europe by up to between 20%
and 30%
o Sea level rise in Baltic coasts with an increased risk of flooding and coastal
erosion
o Increased risks to health due to more frequent heat waves,
flooding and greater exposure to vector and food-borne diseases
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Turning words into action
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Discussion
 Questions and Answers
 Discussion and sharing of experiences on
the climate change impacts in the country
and the main causes and consequences
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Presentation of case
studies
 Presentation of case studies of climate
change impacts (studies, video, photos ….)
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Learning process exercise:
Working group
 Exercise: Preparation of a quiz on climate
change impacts, causes and
consequences
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Recap – Key messages
 Climate change is real, and is driven to a large
extent by emissions of greenhouse gases linked to
human activities
o Fossil energy use, deforestation and agriculture are the main
culprits
 Climate change is notably characterised by rising
temperatures, rising sea level, and more
frequent/intense extreme weather events
 Changes in climate system parameters generate a
wide range of biophysical and socioeconomic impacts
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Key references
 IPCC (2007b) Climate Change 2007: The Physical
Science Basis. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge,
UK & New York, NY, USA
 IPCC website: www.ipcc.ch
 UNFCC (n.d), Climate change: impacts, vulnerabilities and adaptation
in developing countries
 Volunteer-driven information website ‘CO2 Now’: http://co2now.org/
 WWF – Climate change explained:
http://wwf.panda.org/about_our_earth/aboutcc/how_cc_works/
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• Thank you
• Contact: Dr. Pendo MARO, ACP Secretariat
[email protected] or +32 495 281 494
www.gcca.eu/intra-acp
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