Transcript Estimation of Uncertainties in Aerosol Simulations due to

Georgia Power Environmental Engineering
Fellows at (and beyond) Georgia Tech
Georgia Tech
Objective of Georgia Power Fellowships
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Attract top notch graduate students to Tech
Facilitate research in areas of interest to Georgia Power
Educate students in areas of interest to Georgia Power for
future employment
Enhance communication between Georgia Power and
Georgia Tech in the environmental areas
Georgia Tech
Past and Current Fellows
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Katie Wade (now at Sonoma Technologies)
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Continuing to conduct air quality studies with health applications
Diane Ivy
Miranda Lowe
Yu Miyashita
Georgia Tech
Air Quality Studies in CEE: A Sampler
Armistead (Ted) Russell, Georgia Power Professor
Model Development
Measurement
Sensitivity analysis
Air quality measurements
3-D Air quality models
Model Application
Policy / Health
Macon EPD Monitor
Contribution to Peak 8-hour Ozone (ppm)
0.045
C_GA NOX
N_GA NOX
ATL NOX: PT
ATL NOX: AR+NR
ATL NOX: MO
BRANCH
SCHERER
MAC VOC
MAC NOX: PT
MAC NOX: AR+NR
MAC NOX: MO
0.040
0.035
0.030
0.025
0.020
0.015
0.010
0.005
0.000
Siggraph Scientific
Visualization Winner
Aug. 13
(0.068)
Aug. 14
(0.070)
Aug. 15
(0.069)
Aug. 16
(0.082)
Aug. 17
(0.093)
Aug. 18
(0.079)
Source Impacts
Aug. 19
(0.075)
7-day avg.
(0.077)
Date and 8-hour Ozone Concentration (ppmV)
(www.ce.gatech.edu/~trussell)
Georgia Institute of Technology
Why A Sampler?
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Range of Georgia Power relevant (and supported) studies a
bit too much for 15 minutes…
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Assessment of Spatial Aerosol Composition in Atlanta (ASACA) (GP
funds)
Fall Line Air Quality Study (EPD + GP/SC)
Roadway Study (GP +EPA funds)
ARIES (NIH, EPA, EPRI, SC, GP…; with Emory) (Prof. Mulholland)
Source apportionment of PM in Georgia (GP + EPA)
Impact of NE Blackout (GP funds)
Satellite and aircraft data assimilation (NASA)
Sources of organic carbon aerosol (EPA + GP/SC)
PM & ozone in the Mexico-US border region (LAUSPAU)
Air quality management of regional air pollution (EPA + RFF)
Climate and Air Quality (EPA)
Prescribed burn impacts and management
Georgia Tech
Why A Sampler?

Range of Georgia Power relevant (and supported) studies a
bit too much for 15 minutes…
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Assessment of Spatial Aerosol Composition in Atlanta (ASACA) (GP
funds)
Fall Line Air Quality Study (EPD + GP/SC)
Roadway Study (GP +EPA funds)
ARIES (NIH, EPA, EPRI, SC, GP…; with Emory) (Prof. Mulholland)
Source apportionment of PM in Georgia (GP + EPA)
Impact of NE Blackout (GP funds)
Satellite and aircraft data assimilation (NASA)
Sources of organic carbon aerosol (EPA + GP/SC)
PM & ozone in the Mexico-US border region (LAUSPAU)
Air quality management of regional air pollution (EPA + RFF)
Climate and Air Quality (EPA)
Prescribed burn impacts and management
Georgia Tech
Particulate Matter
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Concern due to health and
visibility impacts
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Complex mixture of solid and
liquid particles suspended in the
ambient air
Size classifications
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Atlanta in non-attainment
“super-coarse”
“coarse” (PM10)
“fine” (PM2.5)
“ultrafine”
> 10μm
< 10μm
< 2.5μm
< 0.1μm
Many sources
Many chemical species:
BRIG, New Jersey (m easured)
BRIG, New Jersey (m odeled)
BRIG, New Jersey (m easured)
Sulfate
Nitrate
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Ammonium
Organic Carbon
Elemental Carbon
Soils and crustals
SHRO, North Carolina (m easured)
Ozone (a gas) also of concern
SHRO, North Carolina (m odeled)
Georgia Tech
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Health effects
Atlanta is in non-attainment
ASACA (GP funded)
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System of four monitoring
locations around Atlanta
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Continuous PM2.5
Daily PM2.5 composition
“Continuous” since 1999
Designed to
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Complement SEARCH
Provide unprecedented
spatial, compositional and
temporal coverage in Atlanta
• SEARCH+STN+ASACA
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Provide data for
• Health (ARIES)
• Model evaluation
• Targets of opportunity (Fire!)
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Student (UG & Grad) training
Georgia Tech
ASACA
Capturing a Forest Fire
160
February
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80
40
0
2/27/2007
3
Fires appear to have greater
impact than emissions
inventories suggest
Rich in OC, not EC
Aging increases water solubility
2
EC
OC
K+ (x5)
NH4+
NO3SO42-
20
15
10
1
5
0
0
2/27/07
Georgia Tech
3/1/07
3/3/07
3
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3/2/2007
mg/m
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3/1/2007
Great opportunity to diagnose
forest fire impacts
ASACA composition data
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2/28/2007
Simulated
PM plume
Bad for health, but
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3000 acre planned burned 70
km SE of Atlanta
Winds shift
PM levels climb from <10mg m-3
to over 150 in two hours
Ozone jumps 20 ppb
3
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2007
Observed PM
Concentrations
120
mg/m
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28th,
Hourly TEOM
Air Quality Modeling
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Provide a virtual
laboratory to better
understand
atmospheric
dynamics and
emission control
impacts
Air Quality Goals
Air Quality/Health Impacts
Control
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Chemistry
Pollutant Distributions
Air Quality Model
Emissions
Meteorology
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Applications
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Assess impacts of planned controls on attainment
• Fall line air quality study (FAQS)
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Impact of climate on air quality
Understand how much the 2003 NE blackout impacted air quality
Georgia Tech
Air Quality Model Application Domain
36-km
12-km
4-km
Georgia Tech
Impact of Planned Controls: 2000 vs. 2007
Planned emissions reductions lead to about a 10-20 ppb ozone reduction:
Can we figure out which sources continue to be main contributors to nonattainment?
Georgia Tech
Residual ozone from Atlanta sources
apportioned by NOx category
Contribution to
Contribution
Atlanta Ozone
(ppm)
(ppm)
Atlantato ozone
0.016
A x PT
2nd order cross
0.014
OR x PT
On-road x Area
2nd order
Area 2ord
PT 2ord
Crosssens.
2nd order self
0.012
On-road 2ord
0.010
Point
0.008
Area
0.006
1st order
1st order
Sum
of
parts
0.004
On-road
0.002
0.000
Atlanta NOx:
Aggregate
Atlanta NOX Combined
Atlanta NOX by Category
Atlanta NOx:
By Category
65% Linear
Georgia Tech
Atlanta MSA, 8-hour ozone, Aug. 13-19, 2000 (Year 2007 emissions)
Climate Impacts on Air Quality
Smog tends to get worse when it is
warm…
 Climate change is expected to make
things warmer…
 So, is air quality going to get worse?
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Complexity: Emissions will change, so what are the
relative impacts (controls vs. climate change)
Georgia Tech
Emission Changes
2050 no
controls
6.0E+04
SO2
4.0E+04
2050 no
Now controls
2001
3.0E+04
2.0E+04
6.0E+04
2050_np
2050
4.0E+04
2.0E+04
1.0E+04
0.0E+00
1.5E+04
NOx
8.0E+04
tons/day
tons/day
5.0E+04
ws
pl
mw
ne
se
0.0E+00
1.5E+05
us
ws
pl
ne
se
us
ne
se
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VOCs
NH3
1.0E+04
tons/day
tons/day
mw
5.0E+03
0.0E+00
1.0E+05
5.0E+04
0.0E+00
ws
pl
mw
ne
se
us
Georgia Tech
ws
pl
mw
What “we” have done…
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Simulated how
climate will impact air
quality using large
scale, 3D air quality
models
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NASA GISS
IPCC A1B
MM5
MCIP
SMOKE
(w/ 2001 EI)
Focused on changes
expected in about
2050
SMOKE
(w/ 2050 EI)
CMAQ-DDM
Included climate
change impacts with
and without emissions
changes
And the answer is…
Georgia Tech
Impact of Potential Climate Change and Planned
Controls on Ozone and PM2.5
Southeast
Max8hrO3 (PPbV)
80.0
60.0
standard
25.0
Summers 2000-2002
Summers 2049-2051
Summers 2049-2051_np
2001
2050
2050_np
20.0
15.0
40.0
10.0
20.0
5.0
PM2.5 (ug/m^3)
100.0
0.0
- 0.0
Controls will significantly lower PM and Ozone
4th MDA8hrO3
PM2.5
-Ozone: 3-40 (maximum 8-hr) ppbV lower in 2050 (6-40%), PM~ 40%
-Climate has a more limited impact
- Climate has a more limited impact
-Ozone: +1ppbV, PM can go up or down
Georgia Tech
Blackout!
Assessing the Impacts of the 2003 NE Blackout
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August 14, 2003 : Large scale
blackout begins over parts of the
Northeast, Midwest, and Ontario
U. Maryland analyzes flight data,
suggests drop in power plant
emissions led to:
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50% decrease in ozone @PA site
90% decrease in sulfate
Challenges models to use this data
set to evaluate ability to capture
such changes
Ozone
EPRI analysis suggests not so fast
GIT jumps in…
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Ozone impact 4%
• Large fraction from automobiles
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Sulfate impact 20%
Much of the UM impact due to
strange trajectory
PM2.5
• Came over Canada, not Ohio River
Valley
Georgia Tech
Questions?
Georgia Tech