Transcript PA Climate Impacts Assessment

Jim Shortle, Penn State University
March 24, 2010
Major Components
 PA Climate Futures
 Agriculture
 Aquatic
Ecosystems/Fisheries
 Energy
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Forests
Human Health
Insurance
Outdoor Recreation
Water
Global
Climate
Economy
in Rest of
World
Regional
Economy
Approach
 Climate Futures
 Multi-model GCM averages
 Two IPCC emissions scenarios
 Sector impact studies
 Largely based on literature review and
synthesis
(Annual)
Emissions Scenarios
“High”
emissions A2
scenario
“Low”
emissions B1
scenario
PA Climate Futures
 Projections for the state constructed
using averages of outputs from 14 GCMs
 Multi-model mean provides a credible
simulation of PA’s 20th Century Climate,
and is superior to any individual GCM
 Multi-model mean is slightly too cool
and wet, and slightly muted in variability
on sub-monthly time scales
Pa Very Likely to be warmer
 All GCM models project warming through 2100 for
both emissions scenarios
 Warming for the next 20 years is independent of the
emissions scenario
 Warming by the end of the century is substantially
dependent on the emissions scenario
 A2 median projected warming about 4ºC
 B1 median projected warming about 2ºC
Greater Warming in
Summer than Winter Means
Emissions Scenario
Period
B2
A1
2045-2065
2.0ºC
2.5ºC
2080-2099
2.5ºC
4.5ºC
Emissions Scenario
Period
B2
A1
2045-2065
1.5ºC
2.0ºC
2080-2099
2.0ºC
3.0ºC
PA Likely to Be Wetter
 Less model agreement on precipitation than
warming
 But >3/4 project increased annual
precipitation through the century for both
emissions scenarios
 Like temperature, the change in
precipitation does not vary with emissions
scenario to mid-Century - but does beyond
that
 A2 median projected increase in annual
average precipitation about 10% by 2100
Precip Increases greater in
Winter than Summer
 Average summer precipitation increase across all
models is on the order of 0-5% during 2046-2065
and a little greater than that during 2080-2099.
 Average winter precipitation increases is ~5-10%
during 2046-2065 and 10-15% during 2080-2099
Some other Climate Results
 Longer growing seasons, and fewer frost
days, but also longer dry periods – soil
moisture droughts a concern
 Greater intensity of precipitation
 Increased intensity but reduced frequency of
tropical and extratropical systems
Water Resources
 Floods: Potential decrease in rain-on-
snow events (good news), but more
summer floods and higher flow variability.
 Stream temperature: Increase in stream
temperature for most streams likely (e.g.,
bad for trout). Streams with high
groundwater inflow less affected.
 Snow pack: Substantial decrease in snow
cover extent and duration.
 Runoff: Overall increase, but mainly due
to higher winter runoff. Decrease in
summer runoff due to higher
temperatures.
Water Resources
 Groundwater: Potential increase in
recharge due to reduced frozen soil
and higher winter precipitation.
 Soil moisture: Decrease in
summer and fall soil moisture.
Increased frequency of short and
medium term soil moisture
droughts.
 Water quality: Flashier runoff,
urbanization and increasing water
temperatures might negatively
impact water quality.
Ecosystems Will Be
Increasingly Stressed
 Wetlands and headwater streams in
Pennsylvania are already compromised
in their ability to provide ecosystem
services
 Climate change will increase stresses
on aquatic ecosystems
 Increased stream temperatures
 Increased flow variability
 Impacts will be difficult to detect
because of the continuation of other
stressors such as development and
invasive species
Agriculture
Moderate warming (1 to 3ºC) could……
 Could increase yields of some major field crops
(corn, hay, soybeans)
 Harm yields of cool-temperature adapted fruits and
vegetables (potatoes, and apples) while benefiting
those suited to warmer temperatures (sweet corn)
 Harm American grape varieties but create
opportunities for European varieties
 Increase dairy production costs but increase the
attractiveness of PA to southern hog and poultry
producers
Agriculture
 More extreme warming poses greater problems
 Droughts, pests could be problematic
 Outcomes for PA farmers depend not only on
climate change in PA, but what climate change
does to agricultural markets and economies
elsewhere
 World prices
 Shifts in location
Forests
Species composition will shift as the
climate becomes less suited to
northern species and more suited to
southern species
Northern
Southern
American Beech
Loblolly
Black Cherry
Shortleaf Pine
Eastern Hemlock
Common Persimmon
Red and Sugar Maple
Red Mulberry
White Pine
Oaks & Hickories
Forests
Like agriculture
 Economic productivity could increase
 Benefits to the industry will depend on
climate change impacts elsewhere
 Disease, invasive species, fire risks also
increase
Temperature Related Mortality
Mechanism of
Impact
Direction of Impact Level of Confidence
in Direction of
impact
Higher summer
temperatures cause an
in increase in heatrelated deaths
High
Higher winter
temperatures cause a
decrease in cold-related
deaths
High
Net impact unknown
Heat adaptations include air conditioning, warning
systems; low income assistance needed
Respiratory Disease
Mechanism of
Impact
Higher summer
temperatures cause in
increased in ozone
formation
Higher temperatures
increase formation of
airborne particulates
Higher temperatures,
higher CO2 levels and
longer summer season
increase prevalence of
pollen and mold
Direction of Impact Level of Confidence
in Direction of
impact
High
Low
Low
Accidents
Mechanism of
Impact
Direction of Impact Level of Confidence
in Direction of
impact
Increases in flood and
severe rainstorms
Decreases in snow and
ice storms
Low
Infectious Diseases
 Vector Borne: Lyme, West Nile, St. Louis Encephalitis,
Ehrilichiosis, Malaria
 Water Borne: Cryptosporidium, Giardia,
Campylobacter, Salmonella
 Airborne: Influenza, Pneumococcus
Infections Diseases
Mechanism of
Impact
Higher temperatures
affect range and
abundance of diseasecarrying vectors
Higher temperatures
and runoff lead to
increased concentration
of water-borne
pathogens in surface
waters
Higher winter
temperatures affect
incidence of pneumonia
and seasonal influenza
Direction of Impact Level of Confidence
in Direction of
impact
Low
Medium
Low
Outdoor Recreation
 Increased winter temperatures will shorten the season
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and increase the costs of downhill ski facilities – the
economic viability of the activity will be diminished
Reduced snow cover will diminish opportunities for
dispersed snow-based recreation (skiing, snow
Increased stream temperatures will affect the viability
of wild and to some degree stocked trout populations
Increased temperatures will increase the number of
fishing days
Longer and warmer summers will increase the demand
for water-based recreation
Proactive State and
Local Adaptation Policy
 Ag cultivars and practices  Land use planning and
building codes
practices – cultivated
 Restoration of aquatic
forests with facilitated
ecosystems such as
regeneration
streams and wetlands
wherever possible
 Institutions and policies
for water management in  Expansion of public
an environment in which outdoor recreation
water is increasing scarce facilities
and variable
 Forest management
New Research is Needed to Fully
Understand Impacts
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Climate downscaling
Reduce emission scenario uncertainty
Detailed sectoral modeling studies
Storm risk assessment
Hydrologic conditions at a small
watershed scale
• Ability of already impacted systems to
accommodate climate change
• Health-climate-environment relationships