Transcript Impacts of climate change on air pollution levels in the

Impacts of climate change on
air pollution levels in the
Northern Hemisphere
G. B. Hedegaard1,2,3, J. Brandt1, J. H. Christensen1, L. Frohn1, K. M. Hansen1, C. Geels1, M. Stendel2.
1: National Environmental Research Institute, Department of atmospheric environment, University of
Aarhus, Roskilde, Denmark
2: Danish Meteorological Institute, Copenhagen, Denmark
3: Niels Bohr Institute, Department of Geophysics, University of Copenhagen, Denmark
CEEH External Workshop
RISØ-DTU, Roskilde, Denmark
February 6th – 7th 2008
National Environmental Research Institute, University of Aarhus, Denmark
Background
Air pollution
CONSTANT
Meteorology
Emissions
Natural
Anthropogenic
National Environmental Research Institute, University of Aarhus, Denmark
Aim:
- To understand and quantify the impacts of
a changed climate on air pollution concentrations
and depositions in the 21st century.
Method:
One-way coupling of a climate model to a chemical
transport model, constant anthropogenic emissions.
National Environmental Research Institute, University of Aarhus, Denmark
Experimental design
Climate Model
ECHAM4
atmosphere
Sea ice
surface/
mixed layer
interior
A2
emissions
Emission data
EMEP-GAIA-EDGAR
OPYC3
ocean
3D advection
3D dispersion
Chemistry
Emissions
Wet and dry
deposition
Chemical
Transport Model
DEHM
National Environmental Research Institute, University of Aarhus, Denmark
Climate Model
ECHAM4-OPYC3
Chemical
Transport
Model
DEHM
National Environmental Research Institute, University of Aarhus, Denmark
Emissions in the 4 simulations
- Time-sliced experiment in order to save computational time.
Simulations
1990s
Validation
Future projections
2090s
Variable
(MM5 and ECHAM4)
Constant 1990
Constant 1990
National Environmental Research Institute, University of Aarhus, Denmark
Validation
• Validation period 1990-1999
• EMEP observations in Europe
• Comparison against MM5 simulation with known
performance for many chemical species
National Environmental Research Institute, University of Aarhus, Denmark
Temperature
Annual, averaged temp. 1990s [ºC]
Absolute difference [ºC]
Annual, averaged temp. 2090s [ºC]
Significance
National Environmental Research Institute, University of Aarhus, Denmark
Isoprene
Annual averaged concentration 1990s [ppbV]
Absolute difference [ppbV]
Annual averaged concentration 2090s [ppbV]
Significance
National Environmental Research Institute, University of Aarhus, Denmark
Ozone
Annual averaged concentration 1990s [ppbV]
Percentage difference [%]
Annual averaged concentration 2090s [ppbV]
Significance
National Environmental Research Institute, University of Aarhus, Denmark
Summary and conclusions
• Good performance with respect to mean and seasonal
variation
• The climate-meteorology can be used as input to the
chemical transport model
• Temperature increase is the dominating factor
• Increase in biogenic VOC emissions (isoprene, ozone
precursor)
• Ozone and specific humidity increases, enhanced
chemical production (more hydroxyl radicals)
National Environmental Research Institute, University of Aarhus, Denmark
Current simulations
• Improved version of DEHM and ECHAM
• A1B scenario
• Four decades (1890s, 1990s,2090s and
2190s)
National Environmental Research Institute, University of Aarhus, Denmark
Current work and near future
• Analysis the data from the four decades (const.
emissions)
• Simulate the 1990s and 2090s with variable emissions
• Sophistication of the natural emitted species in the
model (inclusion of particles: Terpenes)
• High resolution over Copenhagen + surroundings (1 km
x 1 km, street-scale)
• Higher regional resolution HIRHAM-DEHM
National Environmental Research Institute, University of Aarhus, Denmark
Thank You !
Contacts:
Gitte Brandt Hedegaard
[email protected]
www.dmu.dk
Reference: Impacts of climate change on air pollution levels with special focus on
Europe and the Arctic, G.B. Hedegaard, J. Brandt, J. Christensen, C. Geels, K.M.
Hansen and M. Stendel, Atmos. Phys. and Chem. Discuss., 8, 1757-1831, 2008.
National Environmental Research Institute, University of Aarhus, Denmark