Transcript CLIMATE CHANGE

Impact of climate change on Wheat
Production in Punjab
Dr. Makhdoom Hussain
Director
Wheat Research Institute,
Faisalabad
Wheat
Staple Food & Food security
3
Global Wheat Scenario
•
•
•
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Global Wheat Production
Demand
Required annual increase
Developing world contribution
701 mt
642 mt
2%
60%
Area, Production & Yield of top 10 Countries 2012-13
Area (000) ha
India (28700)
Russia (26700)
China (24300)
USA (19278)
Kazakistan (14500)
Australia (13350)
Pakistan (8690)
Canada (8120)
Turkey (8000)
Ukraine (6450)
Production (000)
Tons
China (114500)
India (80710)
USA (60103)
Russia (42000)
Pakistan (24303)
Australia (24000)
Canada (22200)
Turkey (17000)
Ukraine (17000)
Iran (14400)
Yield Tons/ha
China (5)
Canada (3.23)
USA (3.17)
India (3.14)
Pakistan (2.8)
Turkey (2.34)
Russia (2.19)
Iran (2.07)
Australia (1.86)
Kazakhstan (1.24)
Pakistan Status (2012-13)
• Area (million ha)
• Production (million tons)
8.69
24.303
Punjab Status (2012-13)
• Area (million hec.)
• Production (million tons)
6.5
18.59
Provincial Share in Area & Production of Wheat
AREA
KPK Baloch.
5%
9%
Sindh
11%
PRODUCTION
Sindh
14%
Punjab
75%
KPK
6%
Baloch.
4%
Punjab
76%
Wheat Area sown after different crops in Punjab
Miscellaneous/
fallow
12%
Barani
10%
Cotton
38%
Rice
26%
maize
9%
S-Cane
5%
8
District Wise Wheat Yield (kg/ha)
1600-1900
1901-2200
2201-2500
2501-2800
2801-3100
3101-3400
3401-3700
3701-4000
Punjab Province
Wheat Production Trends in Pakistan
BENEFITS:
 Monetary Value= 719 billion rupees
1 % ± 7.19 Billion Rupees
 Sustainability
DUE TO:
Dwarf / fertilizer responsive varieties
Short duration
Disease resistance
Improved production technology
Weed Control
Local Wheat
( + ) 14.7 %
1948
2
24.303
Rust Epidemic
(-)9%
Wider adaptability
( + ) 188 %
Semi Dwarf
( + ) 133 %
1966
1977 1978
2013
Challenges / Focus Of Research
• Diseases especially rusts (stem rust; ug99 & local race)
Up-to 70% loss
• Late wheat Planting (early sowing of Bt cotton)
17-20 kg/acre/day losses or 1% loss per day
• Soil health, fertilizer (cost, availability & imbalanced use)
EC-4-8 = 36% yield reduction
EC-8-15 = 68%
EC >15 = 84%
Imbalanced Fertilizer = 30-55%
• Drought (especially erratic rains in barani tract)
Severe drought ….. Complete crop failure
• Frost stress
• Terminal Heat Stress (Global warming)
0.5oC increase in winter temperature reduce wheat yield by 0.45
Tons/ha.
• Weeds
Up-to 40% losses
• Seed
• Small holdings
What changes climate?
• Changes in:
– Greenhouse gases
– Fluctuation in Temperature
– Erratic Rainfalls
– Prolonged drought Conditions
– Floods due to melting of glaciers
– Storms
CLIMATE CHANGE
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Earth Warming
0.7C during 20th Century
Since Mid 70s
0.17C per decade
Expected
0.2C per decade (IPCC,2007)
Global Sea Level
3.3mm per year 1993 to 2007
Global Sea ice melting 3.7%/decade since 1978
Co2 Emission rate
3.4%/year 2000-2007
while
1% during 1990s
(Le-Quere et al, 2009)
Heat stressed wheat area: 65-70 millions ha
(Reynolds et al, 1994)
Climate change
• Pakistan has the least contribution to global warming.
– Ranked 135th position in CO2 emission.
– Ranked 3rd in most vulnerable country.
– Developing countries–
• Least responsible for annual CO2 emission (10%)
• More vulnerable to climate change
– Floods due to melting of glaciers
– Storms
Climate change
• Pakistan is facing 5 major risks due to climate change.
– Rise in sea level.
– Glacial retreats.
– Floods
– Higher average temperature
– Higher frequency of drought
Frost
Dr. M. Hussain
6000
250
5000
200
4000
150
3000
100
2000
50
1000
0
Population (In Millions)
Per Capita Water availability
(In Cubic meter)
PER CAPITA WATER AVAILABILITY
VS POPULATION GROWTH
0
1951
1961
1972
1981
1992
Population
2000
2003
2012
2020
Water
Parameters/Years
1951
1961
1972
1981
1992
2000
2003
2012
2020
Water availability
Per Capita
5650
4000
2800
1900
1700
1400
1200
1000
885
Population
33.7
42.8
65.3
84.2
132.0
140.0
149.0
176.0
216.8
Water scarcity level: 1700 CM /capita
Effect of heat & drought stress
on crops
•
crop duration
•
photosynthetic rate
•
yield
•Survival
STRATEGIES TO IMPROVE HEAT STRESS TOLERANCE
 Selection and Breeding for Heat Tolerance
 Selection criteria
1- strongly correlated with yield under heat stress;
2- rapid, stable, and easy to measure;
3- highly heritable (Edmeades et al., 2001).
 Germplasm Screening based on:
1- Electrolyte leakage: an index of membrane stability, (Blum, 1988;
Shanahan et al., 1990).
2-TTC Test: Reduction of tetrazolium triphenyl chloride as an indicator
of heat tolerance which is detected by spectrophotometer (Towill and
Mazur, 1974).
3- Canopy Temperature Depression,
4-Flag-leaf stomatal conductance
5- Photosynthetic rate
USE OF MOLECULAR MARKERS
& QTL analysis
• QTL mapping and subsequent marker-assisted
selection allows assessment of numbers, locations,
magnitude of phenotypic effects, and patterns of
gene action (Vinh and Paterson, 2005).
QTLS IDENTIFIED FOR HEAT TOLERANCE IN WHEAT
DURING THE REPRODUCTIVE PHASE
Trait
Rate of senescence
Greenness at maximum
senescence
SPAD chlorophyll content
Chromosome
2A, 6A,6B
4B
5D,3A,6B
7B
Fv/Fm chlorophyll
7A
fluorescence
Yield
Canopy temperature
Number of grains
Grain weight
Days to flowering
Stay-green
4A
4A
1A, 2A, 3B, 4A, 5B
1B, 2B, 3B, 5A, 6D
2D, 7D
1A, 3B, 7D
Reference
Vijayalakshmi et al. (2010)
Pinto et al. (2010)
Mason et al. (2010)
Kumar et al.
MANAGEMENT STRATEGIES
• Water supply to heat-stressed wheat helped sustain grainfilling rate, duration and size (Dupont et al., 2006).
• Application of nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium improve
plant growth under moderate heat stress (Dupont et al.,
2006).
• Application of some micronutrients such as zinc, can also
improve heat tolerance in wheat (Graham and McDonald,
2001).
• Early planting may avoid terminal heat stress so that grain
filling occurs during cooler temperatures (Loss and Siddique,
1994).
MANAGEMENT STRATEGIES
• Application of FYM
To improve soil physical & chemical conditions
To conserve soil moisture (Sattar & Gaur,1989)
• Straw Mulch to ameliorate stress
by reducing soil moisture evaporation
increasing infiltration rate
Lowering soil temperature (10-15c)
increase seedling emergence and survival
(Fisher,1984)
TERMNAL HEAT STRESS
TEMPERATURE DATA AT WHEAT TERMINAL
GROWTH STAGES SINCE 2001 TO 2012
45
40
Temperature range
35
30
25
Feb
20
March
April
15
10
5
0
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Years
Shortening of life cycle due to
delayed planting
Sowing Dates
Phase
Nov. 01
Nov. 10 Nov. 20
Nov. 30 Dec. 10 Dec. 20 Dec. 30
6
8
11
12
14
15
18
Vegetative
100
100
94
93
85
78
72
Heading
104
104
98
95
87
80
74
Anthesis
107
106
100
97
89
82
76
Maturity
144
138
135
129
121
115
110
Germination
EFFECT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON WHEAT
 Optimum time:
Shifted from October 01 ----to-----November 10
During 2012-13:
Cotton crop terminated 2-3 weeks earlier
Rice crop terminated
2-3 weeks earlier

EFFECT OF TERMINAL HEAT STRESS
ON WHEAT
Characters
Losses
Plant height
Days to anthesis
Days to maturity
10-26 %
25 -29%
28-30%
Spikes m-2
Grains per spike
16 -29 %
8-17 %
1000-kernel weight
Grain yield
25 -40%
40-54 %
BREEDING FOR HEAT TOLERANCE
 Screening Bread wheat Germplasm/Lines
i- Plastic Sheet Tunnel
ii- Under Glass House Conditions
iii- Late Sown Field Conditions
 Hybridization
i- Attempting fresh crosses
ii- Dealing with Filial generations
Screening for drought and for
heat stress
Breeding Material For Drought & Heat
Tolerance
Sr. No. Generations/Crosses
Entries
1
2
3
4
5
6
Fresh Crosses
F1/F13way
F2
F3
F4
F5
400
255
269
200
213
265
7
8
F6
F7
127
118 SHRP
Canopy Temperature & Early
Ground Cover
• Very good correlation between CT
and yield under irrigated, drought
and heat.
• CT is easy and fast to measure,less
than 10 seconds per reading
• Early and rapid Ground Cover
protects soil moisture
Data recording Using C.T
Thermometer
RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF CLIMATE RESILIENT
WHEAT VARIETIES FOR SOUTH ASIA
• USDA-CIMMYT-KSU-Pak Collaborated
Project
• Core CIMMYT Material (1000+ lines)
• Phenotyping at WRI
• Genotyping at KSU
• Genomics application at Cornel University
USA