Transcript ENVIRONMENTAL SUSTAINABILITY AND HUMAN SECURITY: …

ENVIRONMENTAL SUSTAINABILITY
AND HUMAN SECURITY: THE ROLE OF
CLIMATE CHANGE
Nay Htun, PhD, FIC.*
Professor of Environmental Sustainability,
Stony Brook Southampton,
State University of New York
Extramural Lecture, AIT
27 May 2008.
*Fellow and Visiting Professor Imperial College London;
Visiting Professor and Sr. Advisor Lund University,
Sweden; (Former UN Asst. Sec-General UNEP, UNDP)
CLIMATE CHANGE
HUMAN
SECURITY
ENVIRONMENTAL
SUSTAINABILITY
ENVIRONMENTAL SUSTAINABILITY
***THE CRITICAL BUILDING BLOCKS***
• ATMOSPHERE : composition, temperature,
physical state
• HYDROSPHERE: composition, precipitation,
quantity constant, accessibility, rivers, lakes,
oceans, coastal zones, hydro-cycle
• GEOSPHERE-BIOSPHERE, LITHOSPHERE:
weathering of geosphere to form soils,
provides terrestrial plants with a firm
substrate and vital nutrients and minerals
needed for plant growth.
• LINKGAGES AND INTERACTIONS BETWEEN
SPHERES WHICH NURTURE LIFE SUPPORT
SYSTEMS.
2007 IPCC REPORT
2007 IPCC REPORT
2007 IPCC REPORT
ENVIRONMENTAL SUSTAINABILITY
UNDER INCREASING PRESSURES
• ANTHROPOGENIC ACTIVITIES DISCHARGING AND
EMITTING INCREASING QUANTITIES OF WASTES,
POLLUTANTS EG. GHGs, OZONE LAYER DEPLETING
SUBSTANCES, PERSISTENT ORGANIC, (POPs), HEAVY
METALS
• “NATURAL DISASTERS” exacerbated by
anthropogenic activities. Hydro-meteorological,
geological and biological disasters increased from
71(1900-1909) to 2711 (1990-1999) 396 in 2006*
• INCREASING ENVIRONMENTAL REFUGEES, MORE
PRESSURE ON ENVIRONMENT, ECONOMIC AND
HUMAN SYSTEMS
• CONSEQUENCES FOR HUMAN HEALTH AND
WELL BEING
* UN International Decade for Disaster Reduction (IDNDR)
EMERGING CONCERNS
WITH ENVIRONMENT, ECOSYSTEM AND CLIMATE CHANGES
• PERMAFROST AND GREENLAND MELTING
• GLACIERS MELTING AND LAKES BURSTING
• ATMOSPHERIC BROWN CLOUD HOVERING
OVER CONTINENTS
• GLOBAL WARMING
• SEA LEVEL RISING
• HUMIDITY INCREASING
• MORE FAVOURABLE FOR INSECT, BACTERIA,
VIRUS, MOLD, FUNGUS
• BALLAST WATER DISCHARGE
• ALIEN INVASIVE SPECIES INCREASING
SOME LINKED & CONVERGING
IMPLICATIONS
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FOOD SECURITY
WATER STRESS
WATER QUALITY
INFECTIOUS DISEASES
ALLERGY
RESPIRATORY ILLNESS
NEW DISEASES
ZOONOSES
DISASTERS
DISEASES & FOOD SECURITY
SOME EXAMPLES:
• COLONY COLLAPSE DISORDER
honey
bees affecting US$ 14 billion per year of US
agriculture, attributed to pesticides, mites, fungus,
virus and environmental changes.
• PACIFIC SALMON
heavy losses and extinction
in Western Canada and US, caused by sea lice
breeding on farmed salmon.
• FROG POPULATIONS severely affected ,
extinct, due to increase of chytrid disease
caused by fungus Batrachochytrium
dendrobatidis
DESTRUCTIONS AND DISASTERS
• INFRASTRUCTURES
• HUMAN SETTLEMENTS
• ECOSYSTEMS
* Atmosphere, land, forests, rivers,
lakes, coastal zones, biodiversity
• ECONOMIC SYSTEMS
• SOCIAL AND CULTURAL
PATRIMONY
Destructions
Disasters
Climate Change
Environmental Refugees
Diseases
INFECTIOUS DISEASES
• GROUP OF EIGHT SUMMIT,
ST. PETERSBURG ’06
“ A VIGOROUS RESPONSE TO THE THREAT OF
INFECTIOUS DISEASES, THE LEADING CAUSE OF
DEATHS WORLD WIDE, IS ESSENTIAL TO GLOBAL
DEVELOPMENT AND TO THE WELL-BEING OF THE
WORLD’S POPULATION. MAJOR DISEASES SUCH AS
HIV / AIDS, TUBERCLOSIS, MALARIA AND MEASELS
CONTINUE TO EXACT A HEAVY TOLL ON ECONOMIES
AND SOCIETIES AROUND THE WORLD, PARTICULARLY
IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES, IMPEDING
ACHIEVEMENTS OF THE MILLENNIUM DEVELOPMENT
GOALS”
“– CLEAN WATER, SANITATION, EMERGENCE OF HIGHLY
PATHOGENIC AVIAN INFLUENZA WITH THE
ACCOMPANYING POSSIBILITY OF HUMAN PANDEMIC,
DEMANDS OUR IMMEDIATE ATTENTION”
WHO 2006 REPORTS
• “24% of global disease burdens and
23% of all deaths can be attributed to
environmental factors. Of the 102
major diseases --- environmental risk
factors contributed to disease burdens
in 85 categories”
• “Children 0 – 14 yrs. of age, the
proportion of deaths attributed to the
environment was as high as 36%
EUROPEAN ENVIRONMENT AGENCY
 EUROPE’S ENVIRONMENT --- THE FOURTH
ASSESSMENT” OCT 2007
 “Despite some success with air pollution,
current levels– mainly nitrogen oxide, fine
particles and ground level ozone – are
estimated to shorten average life expectancy
in Western and Central European countries by
almost one year and threaten the health
development of children. In Eastern Europe,
Caucasus and Central Asia, the situation is
assumed to be similarly bleak”
(53 Countries, total population 870 million)
IPCC FOURTH ASSESSMENT REPORT
2007
• More endemic morbidity and mortality
due to increase in vector borne diseases
, primarily from floods and droughts.
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Increase cholera incidence with
increasing water temperatures
• Increased risks of infectious,
respiratory and skin diseases
• Migration and disasters related health
effects
MALARIA
Yearly one million deaths and 500
million become severely ill
Warming effects and extreme weather
events would precipitate large
outbreaks
Increase range of mosquitoes which
spread malaria
WEST NILE
• Affects humans, horses
and over 130 species of
birds
• Warm weather and
droughts play role in
amplifying
DENGUE
• Current outbreak in Asia
Pacific attributed to
climate change and global
warming
ASTHMA
• In US prevalence has
quadrupled since 1980
• New drivers include increased
levels of CO2, which
increases plant pollens, soil
fungi, fine particles, microorganisms
INCREASING AWARENESS & CONCERNS WITH
CONVERGENCE OF ENVIRONMENTAL
SECURITY AND HUMAN SECURITY
SOME RECENT EXAMPLES:
• April 2007 New York Times Editorial “Warming and Global
Security”
• April 2007 CNA Corporation, a US national security think tank
released report by 11 retired Admirals and Generals who
argued that climate change is a “threat multiplier”
• January 2007 UN Security Council first ever debate on
climate change. UK’s former Foreign Secretary Margaret
Beckett said “What makes war start? Fights over water,
changing patterns of rainfall” and warned that global
warming not limited to adverse environmental effects, and
the global population would be wise to consider
“consequences people have not been thinking about”
RESPONSE OPTIONS ?
TRANSFORMATIONAL CHANGES IMPERATIVE
NEW PARADIGM:
 Normative means
 Economic Instruments
 Technologies
 Education, training,
information
 Institutions
 Governance
TOWARDS
PARADIGM CHANGE
• CONSUMPTION PATTERNS, e.g.
*Energy, water, carbon & material
footprint reduction, low carbon
economy.
• PRODUCTION SYSTEMS e.g.
* Zero emissions
* Biomimetics
* Nano materials and
applications
PARADIGM CHANGE
• ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL
INSTRUMENTS: Subsidies, taxes, loans,
financing mechanisms, cap and trade, CDM,
etc
• NORMATIVE MEANS
• INSTITUTIONAL SYSTEMS
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Governance
Administration
Education
PARADIGM CHANGE
---Human Behavior--• THINK & ACT “OUTSIDE-BOX”
• CARING, SHARING, RESPECT,
HARMONY, PEACE:
 Nature
 Neighbors
 Ourselves
GREENING REVOLUTION
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FUTURE THAT IS
CLEAN
SAFE
SECURE
SUSTAINED
ENVIRONMENTAL SUSTAINABILITY
HUMAN SECURITY
 FREEDOM FROM WANT
FREEDOM FROM FEAR
FREEDOM TO CHOOSE