Transcript GIS ASSESSMENT OF CLIMATE WARMING IMPACT ON WINE …

Workshop on climatic analysis and mapping for agriculture
14-17 June 2005, Bologna, Italy
GIS ASSESSMENT OF CLIMATE
WARMING IMPACT ON
WINE GROWING REGIONS
DISTRIBUTION IN SLOVENIA
Andreja Sušnik*
Lučka Kajfež-Bogataj**
Blaž Kurnik*
* Environmental Agency of the Republic of Slovenia
** Biotechnical Faculty, University of Ljubljana
Talk Outline
• Climate Change
Issues
• Winegrowing in
Slovenia
• Winkler index
• GIS Technique
• Results
• Conclusions
Starting points
• The baseline climate in a region
largely determines the varieties
that can ripen and the general
style (flavor and structure) of wine
an area can produce.
• Grapevines are generally grown
in narrow climatic zones for a
specific variety’s optimum quality,
putting them at a greater potential
risk from climatic variations and
change.
• Good wine cannot be made from
bad grapes.
Climate Change Potential Effects on
Viticulture
 􀂃 Warmer and longer
growing seasons
 􀂃 Altered phenological
timing
 􀂃 Altered ripening profiles
 􀂃 Climatic thresholds
 􀂃 Altered disease and pest
timing and severity
 􀂃 Altered water needs
 􀂃 CO2 issues (growth and
quality)
 􀂃 Need for management
adaptations
ITALY:
Maracchi, 2003
German study
Germany, Austria (Stock, 2003)
Winegrowing regions in Slovenia and existing
vineyards locations (red) 17000 ha (54000 vines)
Podravje
region
Posavje
region
Primorje
region
Method
• Comparison of baseline period 1961-1990
to 1975- 2004
• modified Winkler climatic index as climate
indice
• GIS technique (54 stations)
• Simple analysis do not account for
moisture issues, respiration effects, winter
cold, extreme weather etc.
Geographical Resources Analysis
Support System (GRASS) software
• GRASS is a free software under terms of general public
license, developed in the Centre for Applied
Geographical and Spatial Research at Baylor University.
• There is also an internal computer language that allows
user to create new applications and link GRASS to other
software packages (eg. GSTAT).
• In this study we developed methodology to plot contours
of temperature sums over small regions. Thus,
interpolation using the simple kriging techniques has
been performed for each point of the 100 x 100 m grid
over Slovenia land below 1000 m a.s.l. Estimates have
been made for each point of the grid using 55 locations.
• For spatial estimation of the change the integrated
geostatistical GRASS functions were used.
Locations of meteorological stations
used in the GIS analysis (54 red dots)
region
Posavje
region
Data of land use were derived by CORINE land cover and by Ministry of
Agriculture, Forestry and Food vineyards locations were obtained.
The classification of the viticultural climatic regions
according Winkler climatic index (Riou, 1994)
• Area I
< 1390 °C
• Area II
• Area III
• Area IV
• Area V
IW 
Geneve, Vienna, Geisenheim,
Dijon, Bordeaux
1391 to 1670 °C Budapest, Napa (USA),
Santiago (Chile)
1671 to 1950 °C Montepellier (France), Milan
1951 to 2220 °C Venice, Mendoza (Argentina),
The cape (South Africa)
> 2220° C
Split (Croatia), Palermo (Italy),
Algiers (Algeria)
31. October
 (T
avg
1. April
- 10)
Winegrowing regions according to modified
Winkler climatic index (IWm) as used in Slovenia
• Area I
• Area II
< 1390 °C
1391 to 1670 °C

Zone 1
Zone 2
Zone 3
Zone 4
Zone 5
Zone 1
< 1150 °C
Zone 2
1151 to 1250 °C
Zone 3
1251 to 1350 °C
Zone 4
1351 to 1450 °C
Zone 5
> 1450° C
Variety classification
based on the average
growing season
temperature
6 world winegrowing
regions are marked
Comparison with
3 Slovenian
winegrowing
regions
. Average growing season temperature (°C)
An increase in average growing
season temperature
16.2
16.0
15.8
1961-1990
1975-2004
15.6
15.4
15.2
15.0
14.8
14.6
14.4
Posavje
Podravje
Primorje
Slovenian land area during 1961-1990 and
1975-2004 regarding to IWm
Area
Zone
1
IWm
< 1150 0C
Area
1961-1990
%
1975-2004
(ha)
%
(ha)
1307071
72.6
764051
42.4
2 1150 - 1250 0C
389554
21.6
392193
21.8
3 1250 - 1350 0C
76935
4.3
469105
26.1
4 1350 - 1450 0C
27039
1.5
164508
9.1
0
0
10685
0.6
5
> 1450 0C
Slovenian viticultural area during 1961-1990
and 1975-2004 regarding to IWm
Area (ha)
Area (ha)
IWm
1961-1990
%
1975-2004
< 1150 0C
7796
50
248
2
2 1150 - 1250 0C
3708
23
3008
19
3 1250 - 1350 0C
2308
15
8232
52
4 1350 - 1450 0C
1917
12
3670
23
0
0
571
4
1
5
> 1450 0C
%
Distribution of IWm in Slovenia during 1961 –
1990 and existing viticulture areas
existing vineyards locations in Slovenia (black)
Comparison of IWm areas in Slovenia
1961-1990
1975-2004
existing vineyards locations in Slovenia (black spots)
The analysis of elevation of existing wine
growing regions
• average elevation shift
for 132 m from
1961-1990 to 1975-2004
• In recent period the
potential viticultural
regions possible up
to 700 m a.s.l.
1961- 1975zone 1990 2004
(m)
(m)
1
578
672
h
(m)
+96
2
238
398
+160
3
161
267
+106
4
57
168
+111
5
28
Conclusions
• Geostatistics can be applied to describe the spatial
variability of meteorological parameters over small
regions.
• Later varieties could gain on their structure with climate
change because their ripening would be shifted to a
more optimal time, i.e. the mid September in Primorska
and the beginning of October in Podravje and Posavje.
• The ripening of earlier varieties (Pinot Gris, Pinot Noir,
Chardonnay, Pinot Blanc) may shift to the period with
relatively high temperatures also over night which makes
them less favourable. In Primorje region certain
adjustments are required.
• Cooler regions should benefit more than warm regions
with the ability to shift to a wider range of varieties.
• Some regions, near their optimum, may no longer be
able to produce the same wines without changes in
technologies.