Transcript Conceptions of uncertainty and complexity: the case of

Conceptions of uncertainty and
complexity: the case of teaching
and learning climate change
Brendan Hall
CeAL, University of Gloucestershire
30/10/08
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Uncertainty, complexity and education
Case study: climate change
The research: theoretical frameworks
The research: methodology
The research: provisional findings
Where to from here?
Discussion
“There are known knowns. These are things
we know that we know. There are known
unknowns. That is to say, there are things
that we know we don't know. But there are
also unknown unknowns. There are things
we don't know we don't know.”
Donald Rumsfeld (2002)
“There is a lot of complexity in the world.
The world is complex. That complexity is
beautiful. I love trying to understand how
things work. But that's because there's
something to be learned from mastering
that complexity.”
Howard G. “Ward” Cunningham (2004)
Uncertainty, complexity and
education
• Challenges to “settled assumptions” of
knowledge and truth (Blake 1996)
• Uncertainty pervades all aspects of education –
offers challenges and possibilities (Atkinson
2000, Floden and Buchmann 1993)
• “Higher education is about complex learning”
(Knight 2001)
• The world is “supercomplex” (Barnett 2000)
Teaching uncertainty and
complexity?
'Doodle from Versailles'
(November 1918) by
David Lloyd George
Imperial War
Museum ©
Uncertainty, complexity and climate
change
• ‘Climate change’ is broadly concerned with 3 things:
• Understanding
• Predicting
• Acting
• The climate system is complex – ordered forcing + chaos
(Rind 1999)
• Understanding of individual components may be fairly
good but composite effect is uncertain (Gautier and
Solomon 2005)
• Models can be constructed but have limitations
(Shackley et al. 1998)
• Complexity  Uncertainty
“The multiplicity of models is imposed by the
contradictory demands of a complex,
heterogeneous nature and a mind that can only
cope with a few variables at a time; by the
contradictory desiderata of generality, realism
and precision; by the need to understand and
also to control; even by the opposing esthetic
[sic] standards which emphasise the simplicity
and power of a general theorem as against the
richness and the diversity of living nature. These
conflicts are irreconcilable” (Levins 1966)
“Climate change science necessitates the ability to
deal with uncertainty on several levels – not only
uncertainty about the workings of the complex
physical climate system, but also uncertainty
with respect to social and cultural processes that
mediate human response to changes within the
system”
- Rebich and Gautier (2005, p. 355 )
The case of climate change
The case of climate change
• Climate change provides a case study for
analysing conceptions of uncertainty and
complexity
• What are academics’ conceptions of
uncertainty/complexity?
• How are they addresses in the curriculum?
• How do students respond?
• What are the implications?
The research: Theoretical
frameworks
• Troublesome Knowledge (Perkins 1999)
• Threshold Concepts (Meyer and Land 2003)
• Post Normal Science (Funtowicz and Ravetz
2003)
Troublesome Knowledge
• Perkins (1999) identifies several forms of
knowledge, all of which may be potentially
‘troublesome’ in some way for a learner
• Ritual Knowledge – routine/ritual response
• Inert Knowledge – “the mind’s attic”
• Conceptually Difficult & Alien Knowledge –
difficult/complex/counter-intuitive
• Tacit Knowledge – implicit within discipline
Threshold Concepts
“Within certain disciplines there are certain
‘conceptual gateways’ or ‘portals’ that lead
to a previously inaccessible, and initially
perhaps ‘troublesome’, way of thinking
about something” (Meyer and Land 2005)
Students must cross these thresholds in
order to progress within the discipline
Threshold Concepts Characteristics
• Troublesome – conceptually difficult, alien etc.
• Transformative – brings about a significant shift in the
learner’s perception of a subject
• Integrative – reveals the previously hidden
interrelatedness of different concepts (Carmichael et al.
2007)
• Irreversible – unlikely to be unlearned
• Bounded – leading into new conceptual terrain
• Re-constitutive – effecting a change in the learner’s
subjectivity
• Discursive – entailing a changed use of language on the
part of the learner.
• Liminality – a space that must be ‘crossed’ to occasion
shift in identity, likely to be uncomfortable (Meyer and
Land 2005)
Uncertainty and complexity as troublesome
knowledge/threshold concepts
Do they fit the criteria?
• Conceptually difficult/alien
• Tacit?
• Transformative, integrative, bounded etc.
• These frameworks provide a means of analysing
uncertainty and complexity as concepts as well
as informing research design.
Post Normal Science
• ‘Normal’ science = puzzle solving within present
paradigms (Kuhn 1996, Saloranta 2001)
• ‘Post-Normal’ science is science where:
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Facts are uncertain
Values are disputed
Stakes are high
Decisions are urgent (Funtowicz and Ravetz 2003)
• Uncertainties in this instance are
technical/methodological AND
epistemological/ethical (Saloranta 2001)
• Extended peer community
Post Normal Science
Climate change is an excellent example of post-normal science.
Decision making involves the interaction of the qualitative and
quantitative at the science/policy interface
The research: methodology
• Initial plan based on phenomenography
(Trigwell 2001)
• Included interviews with academics and students
and questionnaire
• Subsequent move to a grounded theory
approach to accommodate context
(Haggis 2006)
• Open ended approach allows theory to
emerge from data (Strauss and Corbin
1998)
The research: methodology
• Semi-structured interviews
• Context
• Thresholds/Troublesome Knowledge
• Uncertainty/Complexity and strategies
• Academics teaching climate change on
Geography programmes in England and
Wales
• Grounded theory – ‘saturation’ (Strauss
and Corbin 1998)
The research: preliminary findings
• Uncertainty and complexity – troublesome
knowledge and thresholds
• “I think the very top [concept] for me is certainty,
certainty and uncertainty”
• “To realise that science and what we find in
science is changing all the time”
• “I don’t think many of them grasp that [uncertainty,
criticality/evidence]”
• Tacit knowledge?
• Complexity?
The research: preliminary findings
• The importance of context
• Personal/academic background, departmental,
institutional context all have a bearing on teaching
• How does this affect how uncertainty/complexity
are addressed?
• “I’m a pretty big fan of getting the
chronology right...that’s probably because
that’s where my expertise is”
The research: preliminary findings
• Implications/strategies
• “The palaeoclimate toolbox”
• “...being highly critical and looking at the balance
of evidence”
• “It’s why I do it…”
Where to from here?
• Data collection is ongoing
• Exploration of context
• Students: How do they respond to
teaching? Look at one cohort
(observation)
References
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Blake, N. 1996. Between postmodernism and anti-modernism: the predicament of educational studies. British
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Floden, R. E., Buchmann, M. Between Routines and Anarchy: preparing teachers for uncertainty. Oxford Review
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Funtowicz S., Ravetz, J. 2003. Post-normal science. Report to International Society for Ecological Economics. In
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