Transcript CLIMATE CHANGE IN COSTA RICA - River Basin Center at the

CLIMATE AND LAND USE
CHANGE IN PACIFIC
MESOAMERICA
CHALLENGES FOR
CONSERVATION OF
BIODIVERSITY AND
SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT
Content
• The global picture
• Scenarios for Costa Rica and Central
America
• What are the challenges for
conservation?
• What are the opportunities for rational
responses?
Industrial revolution and the
atmosphere
The current concentrations of key greenhouse gases,
and their rates of change, are unprecedented.
Carbon dioxide
Methane
Nitrous oxide
Temperature
change C
• 85% of world’s glaciers are retreating.
• The majority of Greenland and Antarctica ice caps
melting twice as fast as expected.
• 0.5 degree C rise in SST= 40% increase hurricane
activity.
Climate Change
Changes in the
mean (average)
and variance
…are both
important for
temperature and
rainfall
…new considerations
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El Nino Modoki
African dust
Trace gases
Clouds
EL NINO
June, July, August
Hot and Dry in Costa
Rica
December, January,
February typical hot
and dry in Costa
Rica
(northern Pacific side)
Sea surface temperatures (SST) of classic
developing El Nino
High wind shear in Caribbean reduces formation of
strong storms. A characteristic feature of El Nino years.
El Nino Modoki or Central Pacific El Nino
During an El Nino Modoki, the Pacific warm pool is further
westward. Wind shear in the Caribbean is reduced and the
formation of strong Atlantic storms may increase. Greater
ocean productivity in the Costa Rica “dome”?
And the role of African
dust??
Most comes from a small
part of Mali
Will the Sahelian climate become drier or wetter…climate
models give contradictory scenarios. But….
Overgrazing by goats is increasing dust storms in Africa.
Trace gases emitted by
vegetation may also be
important
Isoprene and monoterpense
(volatile organic compounds) may
make up as much as 6% of
atmospheric carbon
Tropical forests emit the largest amounts of
isoprene and monoterpenes
Organic aerosols, especially monoterpenes,
contribute to cooling of the atmosphere.
They can form raindrop nuclei and increase
rainfall. Important in coniferous forests where
mostly monoterpenes are emitted.
However….in tropical forests both isoprene
and monoterpenes are produced. And more
are produced at higher temperatures.
Large air chamber experiments
demonstrate that rain nuclei do not
form from these aerosols when
isoprene and monoterpene occur
together.
Increasing amounts of isoprene plus
monoterpene may therefore lead to drier and
warmer conditions. Will this be true in the real
tropical environment?
Forest composition will be important because
some species emit mostly isoprene, e.g.
Quercus, while others emit mostly
monoterpenes, e.g., Eucalyptus, Anacardium.
Do clouds (red) above warm oceans act to cool or to warm the
atmosphere?
Results of 55 year study of ship records recording ocean temperature and
cloudiness suggest that low level “cooling” clouds are dissipated and there is
an increase in high level clouds that allow more sunlight penetration.
Therefore, high level clouds forming over warm oceans may
act as a positive feedback mechanism to enhance further
warming.
The Working Group I Report
IPCC 2007
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Started 2004
Completed February 2007
152 Authors
~450 contributors
~600 expert reviewers
30,000+ review comments
And, that is just for this
Working Group
http://ipccwd1.ucar.edu/
What do the regional climate
models tell us?
Regional climate models
Consider such local variables as
mountains, proximity to ocean,
land use, etc.
Regional Climate Model (CATHALAC 2008)
Precipitation
Future climate of Costa Rica…best
guesses
Scenarios for Costa Rica and
Central America
• Even more uncertainty
• General agreement that the future will
be hotter and drier than the present
• Likely that much of Central America will
have more prolonged droughts
• Plausible that much of Central America
will have few but more intense storms
Some likely
consequences for
Costa Rica
Possible increase in
vector borne diseases
Tiger mosquito (Aedes
albopictus) distribution
Aedes albopictus
Challenges for conservation
• Changes in species distribution and
abundance
• Altered phenology and productivity of
forests
• Vulnerable aquatic ecosystems
• Re-assessing environmental services
Changes in species distribution
and abundance
Some examples at small,
medium and large scales
Fig trees are pollinated by small wasps that fly
short distances. Because fig trees reproduce
asynchronously and are abundant there is
usually a nearby fig to pollinate.
However,
drier and
hotter
weather may
reduce flight
distances
and affect
fruiting
patterns
Quetzal and Lauraceae
distribution with climate
change???
Quetzal migrate up and down
mountains following the fruiting
pattern of several species of
Lauraceae.
Resplendent
Quetzal. Royal
bird of the
Maya.
Quetzals, toucans, and many other fruiteating birds are major dispersers of tree
seeds. Their ecosystem service maintains
the forest. This Quetzal is holding a fruit of a
wild relative of the avocado.
A key question…..
As climate change develops,
how will the fruit yield of the
lower elevation Lauraceae be
affected?
Long distance
connections
Shade-grown coffee and boreal
spruce-fir forests
Vermivora peregrina “Cazadorcita”
Most important insectivore in
shade-grown coffee in Costa Rica
and major predator on spruce
budworm pest in Canadian boreal
forest.
Questions for the cazadorcita?
• How will warming of the boreal climate
affect spruce budworm populations and
bird breeding success?
• How will this affect coffee farm pest
populations?
• Can V. perigrina in Costa Rica be
protected from a drying climate by
managing nectar sources?
Combretum fruticosum, example of an important
nectar source for birds in the coffee zones
Bird species diversity is strongly dependent on
available monthly energy from fruit in shade-coffee
Peters, Cooper, Carroll 2009
Global warming
Impact on two key crops
coffee and rice….
Implications for
conservation
Coffee
Climate change is expected to
greatly lower coffee yield in
Central America…will Costa Rica
have a relative advantage?
La broca del café is a major limiting
pest in coffee worldwide. Costa Rica is
relatively less affected.
Ojo de gallo disease is common in
Costa Rice
Coffee arabica
• Yields drop sharply with higher
temperature
• Coffee berry borer “La broca” may move
above 1500-1600 m
• Coffee rust becomes worse
• Leaf spot “ojo de gallo” a lesser problem
if climate dries
Consequences?
• As coffee yields decline, price will
increase. Will this increase pressure to
open up more high altitude forest for
coffee production?
• Will shade coffee increase?
• What will happen to the current coffee
lands?
Rice
• Rice yields drop 10% for
every 1 degree C increase in
night time temperature
(Philippines)
Consequences con’t
• As rice yields decline, will more lands be converted to
irrigated rice to compensate for the lost aggregate
revenue?
• Will this increase competition for water to maintain
natural wetlands--or conversion of wetlands to rice
fields?
• What about additional increased competition for
water from coastal ecotourism?
Palo Verde Marsh
Rice field
Opportunities for rational
responses in northwest Costa
Rica
• Increased monthly fruit-energy, floral
resources in the shade coffee
agroecosystem..”bird friendly” marketing
• Protecting wet refugia, protecting
headwaters,
• Developing organic and water conserving rice
production
• Reconnecting and protecting wildlife corridors
especially from the summit to the sea
For adapting to climate
change…
Summit to the sea corridors
may be even more important
than north-south corridors
Tempisque Project
A template for studying the consequences and
adaptive responses to land use and climate change in
Pacific Mesoamerica
Tempisque basin rice fields