Transcript FORESTRY MITIGATION PROJECTS & SUSTAINABLE …

FORESTRY MITIGATION
PROJECTS &
SUSTAINABLE
DEVELOPMENT
Prof. N. H. Ravindranath
Indian Institute of Science
Global Climate Change
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It is an important global environmental problem
CO2 concentration has increased from 280 ppmv
(pre-ind rev-1750) to 368 ppmv in 2000
Projected to reach 540-970 ppmv by 2100
Global mean temp is projected to increase by 1.4 to
5.8 deg C by 2100
Projected climate change is likely to have adverse
impacts on natural ecosystems such as forests and
human systems such as food production
Thus, climate change issue has attracted global
attention
Forests & Climate Change
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Forests play a critical role in global carbon
cycle
 Forests contribute about 20% of global CO2
emissions
 Forest ecosystems are vulnerable to projected
climate change
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Likely to have adverse impacts on forest
biodiversity and biomass production
Thus need to assess impacts and develop
adaptation strategies
Forests provide a large mitigation opportunity
to stabilize GHG concentration in the
atmosphere along with significant co-benefits
 Mitigation through forest sector has been a
contentious issue in climate negotiations
Mitigation Options
Mitigation: Includes all activities aimed at reducing GHG
emissions and/or removal of CO2 from atmosphere, to
stabilize CO2 concentration in the atmosphere
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Mitigation in the forest sector; includes carbon sink
conservation, C sink expansion & fossil fuel substitution by
bioenergy
I. Forest Carbon Conservation Management Measures
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Banning deforestation or forest conversion to non-forest
uses
 Formation of protected areas, conversion of forests to
national parks and sanctuaries
 Adoption of sustainable logging practices
 Adoption of forest fire control techniques
 Implementation of fuelwood conservation and substitution
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Fuelwood efficient stoves, efficient charcoal kilns and biogas
Recycling of forest products
Mitigation Options…
II. Carbon Storage Management
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Natural regeneration
Reforestation in degraded forest lands
Afforestation in non-forest lands
Carbon pools in durable wood products
III. Substitution Management
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Bioenergy substituting fossil fuel electricity
Sustainable wood products substituting fossil
fuel based building materials (cement, steel
etc.)
Global Mitigation Potential of Forest
Sector Activities
Latitudinal
Zone
Measure
Carbon
Sequestered
GtC
Cost
(US$/tC)
Total Cost
(109 US$)
High
Forestation
2.4
8 (3-27)
17
Mid
Forestation
Agroforestry
11.8
0.7
6 (1-29)
5
60
3
Low
Forestation
Agroforestry
Regeneration
Slowing
deforestation
16.4
7 (3-26)
6.3
5 (2-12)
11.5-28.7
2 (1-2)
10.8-20.8 2 (0.5-15)
97
27
TOTAL
60-87
3.7-4.6
(1-29)
44-97
250-300
Indian Situation
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Area under forests:
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63.7 Mha
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Forest Conversion/loss:
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About 200,000 ha
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Afforestation
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1.4 Mha annually
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Area brought under JFM
(largely regeneration):
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1.4 Mha annually
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Wasteland estimates:
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66 to > 100 Mha
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Potential for agroforestry:
(Cultivable waste to long
fallow)
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20 Mha
Indian Situation…
Effective Forest Conservation Act and other
legislations
 Biomass demands growing leading to;
 Shortages of fuelwood, pulp, timber
 Large imports
 Increased livestock grazing pressure on
forestlands
 Large external funding to afforestation
activities
 State support to afforestation is declining in
many states
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Why Explore Mitigation Opportunity
in Forest Sector?
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Need to conserve forests and reduce pressure on
forests
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For non-GHG related reasons such as
• biodiversity, watershed, livelihoods
 Need to afforest/reforest degraded lands to prevent land
degradation
 Need to grow biomass to meet growing demand
 Need to develop community institutions and enhance
capacity to protect and manage forests
 Need to work towards stabilization of GHG
concentration in the atmosphere
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CURRENT EFFORTS INADEQUATE
 TECHNICAL, INSTITUTIONAL, FINANCIAL BARRIERS
Advantages of Implementing Forest Mitigation
Projects;
Afforestation and Reforestation
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Introduce innovative technical interventions into A&R
programs to
 Increase biomass productivity
 Conserve biodiversity
Enhance the rate of spread of A&R
Reclaim degraded lands
Build institutions at village to forest division to state
level
Adopt innovative institutional interventions to
strengthen community institutions
Enhance financial flows to communities
Potential Contentious Issues
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Losing low-cost mitigation opportunities?
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Insignificant loss of carbon credit potential
Communities may lose access to land & biomass
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Global demands for forest carbon credits
(CERs/RMUs) limited
Project should be fully compatible with JFM/other
regulations
Community needs can be built in to project
Non-permanence, leakage and uncertainty in
measurements of carbon stock changes
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Techniques, accounting rules and models available
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SBSTA & IPCC are developing guidelines
Mitigation Potential
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Estimate technical, economic and market potential
Demonstrate environmental additionality
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Estimating the carbon stock changes in baseline and
mitigation scenario
Estimating incremental or additional C seq.
Need for policies, programs and measures to
overcome barriers to A&R and enhance
stakeholder involvement
Need for additional investment to overcome the
barriers
Need for methods, techniques and models to
address issues of non-permanence, leakage,
uncertainty etc.
Mitigation Potential Through a Sustainable
Forest Management Approach for India
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Potential Scenarios
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Technical potential scenario
Sustainable forestry scenario
Commercial forestry scenario
Potential Mitigation Activities
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Afforestation – short rotation
Afforestation – long rotation
Forest regeneration (reforestation)
Forest Protection
Bioenergy
Baseline Scenario
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Current rate of forest loss projected to continue
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Rates of afforestation projected to decline
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Area under crops stabilized (at ~ 150 Mha)
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Current (10th plan) rate of investment projected
to continue
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Biomass demands are not systematically
addressed in afforestation programs
Sustainable Forestry Scenario
1.
Estimate fuelwood, industrial wood and sawn wood
demands for 2015
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Assess land use pattern and surplus land available
for forestry activities
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Identify forestry activities for meeting biomass
demands eg. Short-rotation plantation for ind.wood
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Allocate forestry activities to compatible land
categories; SR-plantations for private lands
5.
Meet current biomass demands (for 2000) from
baseline activities; existing forests, plantations, farms
6.
Meet incremental (2015 minus 2000) biomass
demands from proposed forestry activities
Method of Estimation of Carbon Benefits &
Costs
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COMAP model developed by F-7 (Tropical Forest -7)
Network
 Inputs; Baseline & project scenario
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Area afforested-yearly, Soil C, Biomass growth rate,
Rotation period, Life of product, investment cost, annual
cost, monitoring cost, value of products (timber,
fuelwood, NTFPs)
 Outputs; Baseline and Mitigation scenario
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Annual and cumulative carbon stock changes (tC/ha)
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Incremental carbon stock
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Total C stock per ha
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Cost-Effectiveness;
 Investment cost; Rs/tC or Rs/ha
 Life cycle cost; Rs/tC or Rs/ha
 Net present value of returns; Rs/tC
Mitigation Potential and Cost of
Forestry Sector Activities
200
886
176
165
900
160
800
140
700
120
600
550
100
500
75
80
400
60
40
300
200
22
20
100
47
0
Short Rotation
Long Rotation
Mitigation Potential
18
Regeneration
Forest Protection
Mitigation Cost
0
Lifecycle cost (Rs/tC)
Mitigation potential (tC/ha)
180
1000
Mitigation Potential
Mitigation Potential (Mt)
6400
6200
6000
5800
5600
5400
5200
5000
2000
2008
2012
2030
Years
Baseline scenario
Sustainable Forestry Scenario
Commercial Forestry Scenario
Incremental Mitigation Potential (106 tC)
Sustainable
Forestry
Scenario
Commercial
Forestry
Scenario
Mitigation 2012-Baseline 2000
237
78
Mitigation 2012-Baseline 1990
281
122
Investment Required (Rs. Million)
Forestry activities
Area
Mitigation Scenario
(Mha) (increment over baseline)
2000-2012
2000-2030
Short rotation plantation
3.63
32265
40635
Long-rotation plantation
6.66
44595
56115
11.10
3375
4320
8.49
3555
4500
29.88
83790
105570
Regeneration
Forest protection
TOTAL
Data, Methods, Models are criticalBaseline & Project Activities
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Monitoring & estimating
 AGB stock, annual AGB growth rate
Soil carbon stock, annual / periodic changes
Developing ratio of AGB to BGB
Monitoring extraction rates and effects on carbon stock
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Monitoring area changes, crown cover changes and
linking to biomass stock changes
Estimating production of wood and NTFPs & values
Models for projecting biomass and soil carbon stock
Models & methods for incorporating barriers for estimating
mitigation potential
Models for estimating costs and benefits
Addressing Contentious Issues
Guidelines, Methods, Models
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NON-PERMANENCE/REVERSIBILITY OF CARBON
SEQUESTERED; Temporary nature of CO2 removal by sinks from
LUCF activities
 Estimating C stocks annually
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LEAKAGE; Net change of anthropogenic emissions by sources of
GHGs and removal by sinks, which occurs outside the project
boundary, and which is measurable and attributable to the CDM project
activity
 Estimating C stock changes within & outside project boundary
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ADDITIONALITY; A project activity is additional if anthropogenic GHG
emissions are reduced below those that would have occurred in the
absence of the project activity
[OR ]
CO2 removal by sinks that are higher than that would have occurred in
the absence of a project activity
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- Estimate C-stock changes under baseline and mitigation Sce
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UNCERTAINTY IN ESTIMATES
Guidelines and Methods to Reduce
Measuring, estimating and monitoring
carbon stock changes
Estimating non-GHG environmental
impacts
 Biodiversity, Ground water, soil conser.
Estimating socio-economic impacts
 Access to grass, fuelwood & NTFPs
 Changes in employment & income
Issues…
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BASELINE DEVELOPMENT
 Reliable estimates of C stock changes in the proposed
project area in the absence of project activity
METHODS TO ADDRESS CONTENTIOUS ISSUES ARE
AVAILABLE
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Simplification
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Reduce costs & increase accuracy
 Create access to potential users
ACCOUNTING RULES FOR ADDRESSING CONTENTIOUS
ISSUES
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SBSTA & IPCC are developing guidelines & methods
TRANSACTION COSTS; for baseline dev. Monitoring and
project administration - Minimum
BUILDING INSTITUTIONS & CAPACITY TO ENHANCE
PARTICIPATION OF LOCAL INSTITUTIONS
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