Transcript Slide 1

Emerging Environmental Security Issues
In coming decades, changes in the environment—and
the resulting upheavals, from droughts to inundated
coastal areas—are likely to become a major driver of
war and conflict.
UN Secretary-General, Ban Ki-moon
Definition
Environmental security is environmental viability for life
support, with three sub-elements:
 preventing or repairing military damage to the environment,
 preventing or responding to environmentally caused conflicts, and
 protecting the environment due to its inherent moral value.
Grouping in the SOF
 preventing or repairing military damage to the environment
• environmental security rises on the international political agenda
• international treaties to address military-related environmental security issues
• conflict and post-conflict environmental security issues
• national and regional initiatives affecting military activities
• technological breakthroughs with environmental security implications
 preventing or responding to environmentally caused conflicts
• conflict threats and preventive actions
• resources (food shortages, water, natural disasters, energy security, migration)
• protecting the environment due to its inherent moral value
• international regulations (entered into force, proposed, enforcement)
• safety issues (testing, CBN, new technologies)
• climate change (scientific evidences, modeling, mitigation and adaptation)
• pollution, biodiversity, marine environment
• new organizations with mandates with eventual ES implications
• new initiatives aiming to increase eco-efficiency
Environment and Security Link
 UN Security Council first debate on security implication of
environmental factors
 warnings by military officials, diplomats, heads of State
 national initiatives include the military for environmental protection
(mitigation, prevention, preparedness, and compliance with MEAs)
 past 20 years, 50% of conflicts “re-conflicts”
 approx. same number (25 mill) of people displaced by conflict and
human rights, as by natural disasters
 environment - underlying/multiplier cause of conflicts
(environment and conflict should be addressed simultaneously)
 ongoing post-conflict liability disputes (26 out of 29 countries beleaguered
with remnants of war; Prot V on ERW entered into force)
 new technologies for reduced military environmental footprint
 environmental diplomacy for conflict prevention
 climate change – highest threat to human security
Global Warming
climate change tops political agenda of UN and most world governments
(“defining issue of our era”, Ban Ki-moon)
(c) Crown copyright 2007, the Met Office
Warning Signs
 compelling evidence of environmental change
 widespread environmental deterioration --humanity's impact on the planet tripled
since 1961; by 2050 demand twice as much as the planet can supply (highest ecological
footprint: the UAE, U.S., Finland, Canada, Kuwait, Australia)
 worse case scenarios are underestimates -- emissions up 3%/year, faster melting
ice, sea level rise, extreme weather, increased natural disasters)
 population growth -- in already densely populated developing regions; coastal
population 2.75 billion by 2025
 resource scarcity -- water scarcity 3 bill people by 2025; increasing energy demand
 large-scale developments
 desertification -- 2 bill potential victims, 50 mill displaced over the next ten years
 drought -- 10% of world land by 2050; 30% by 2100
 migration – by 2010, 50 mill environmental refugees; 1 billion over the next 50 years
 urbanization
 globalization
New Political Situations
(c) BBC
New Threats
 waste (e-waste 20-50 mill tons/year, toxic/hazardous waste)
 chemicals (commercial chemicals to grow 80% next 15 years)
 nanotechnology (assessments, standards, terminology)
 biotechnology
 new nonlethal agents
 nanotech methods for delivering biological agents
 SIMAD
 new kinds of weapons
 spread and lack of safety of nuclear, chemical, biotechnology labs
 underwater sonar
 space pollution (41 nations own satellites; anti-ASAT debris)
Parties to Multilateral Environmental Agreements
more than 700 MEAs
Recent Environmental Agreements
 International Convention for the Suppression of Acts of Nuclear Terrorism
 Protocol V on Explosive Remnants of War
 E-waste Declaration for Basel Convention on the Transboundary
Movement of Hazardous Wastes and Their Disposal
 Stockholm Convention evaluation mechanisms (adopted)
(non-compliance mechanism expected for 2009)
 global ban on mercury (in negotiation)
 cluster munitions ban (to be proposed by 2008)
 network of marine protection areas, to be adopted by 2012
 Registration, Evaluation and Authorization of Chemicals (REACH)
 European Environmental Liability Directive
 post-Kyoto negotiations
 mandatory emissions targets at country, regional, local levels
Trends
 increased protection of the environment and “common spaces”
 focus of international negotiations switching from designing to
reinforcing MEAs
 improving environmental governance and enforcement
 improving knowledge and understanding of MEAs
 developing clear international guidelines and frameworks for
environmentally sound management
 more synergistic environmental policy; integration of MEAs for simpler
and clearer framework (e.g. Basel, Stockholm and Rotterdam Conventions)
 improving analytical tools for environmental status and comparability
 new watchdog bodies
 adopt precautionary principle versus reactive actions
 polluter pays principle
Trends (cont.)
 expansion of environmental litigations
 introducing liability and criminal sanctions for environmental offenses
 adoption of local environmental and energy policies (in absence or
complementing national) often based on international standards or agreements
 increased participation of civil society in the design of policies
 alliances between private companies, govs, NGOs and IOs to increase
eco-efficiency
 early warning, mitigation, and adaptability (global warning systems for natural
disasters, UN International Strategy for Disaster Reduction)
 “competition” for better emissions reduction strategies (EU 20% CO2 cut
from 1990 levels by 2020; Britain to limit GHG by law; governmental committees to
address climate change and energy security; Norway, Ireland to become “carbon neutral”)
 expansion of protected areas (now: land 12%; oceans 0.6%, suggesting 40%)
Technological developments for ES
 Space technology (monitoring from environment to nuclear facilities)
 global system for countering pandemics
 environmental sensors globally connected
 high-sensitivity sensors for detection and rapid response
 ICT and robotics for detection and cleanup
 bio/nano tech for cleanup and remediation
 improved monitoring systems and models
 early warning systems
Areas of Disagreement
 climate change and post-Kyoto strategy (inclusive; many countries
supporting a 50% cut of 1990 emissions by 2050; new technologies)
 nuclear non-proliferation
 biodiversity protection
 security aspects of environmental implications
 synthetic biology and nanotech safety strategy
 incapacitating agents
 outer-space security
Necessary Developments
 improve scientific expertise of security organizations
 independent S&T advisory committee for intelligence agencies
 codes of conduct for the scientific community
 clear standards for new technologies
 integrate extreme scenarios into the decision-making process
 Universal Declaration of Environmental Rights and Duties
(proposed by the Paris Call for Action)
 UNEP to become UNEO
 legal framework for environmental migrants
 cross-border integrated water-management systems
 global e-waste management and recycling system (regional exist)
 set priorities right (annual adaptation to climate change cost approx $10-40 bill;
2006, $1.2 trill on weapons, $1.5 trill on oil, 235 bill subsidies to fossil fuel industries)