Transcript Slide 1

EE535: Renewable Energy:
Systems, Technology &
Economics
Session 1: Introduction
EE535
Stephen Daniels, Oct 2009
Reading/Reference List
• Renewble Energy Focus
Handbook, Elsevier 2009,
ISBN: 978-0-12-374705-1
• Hughes Electrical and
Electronic Technology,
Pearson Education 2008,
ISBN: 978-0-13-206011-0
• Energy Switch, Craig Morris,
New Society Publishers, 2006,
ISBN: 978-0-86571-559-2
• Sustainable Energy – without
the hot air, David JC MacKay,
UIT Cambridge Ltd 2009,
ISBN: 978-0-9544529-3-3
• Mayo Energy Audit 2009-2020,
Wilson & Lynch, Sustainability
Institute 2008
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• www.renewableenergyfocus.co
m
• www.withouthotair.com
• http://www.iwea.com
• www.sustainability.ie
• www.wikipedia.org
• http://www.undp.org/energy/act
ivities/wea/drafts-frame.html
• http://www.ren21.net/pdf/RE20
07_Global_Status_Report.pdf
Stephen Daniels, Oct 2009
Reading/Reference List
• Wind Energy Handbook,
Burton, Sharpe, Jenkins,
Bossanyi, Wiley 2001, ISBN:
13:978-0-471-48997-0
• Energy Systems and
Sustainability, Boyle, Everett,
Ramage, Oxford University
Press 2003, ISBN 0-19926179-2
• Renewable Energy, Boyle,
Oxford University Press 2004,
ISBN 0-19-926178-4
• Renewable Energy, Sorensen,
Academic Press 2000, ISBN:012-656152-4
• Introduction to Energy,
Cassedy, Grossman,
Cambridge Uni Press1998,
ISBN 0 1521 63106 8
• Energy Economics,
Quantitative Methods for
Energy and Environmental
Decisions, Kaplan, McGrawHill 1983, ISBN 0-07-033286-X
Research Papers Referenced on Slides and Assigned Reading as Course Progresses
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Course Objectives
• Key concepts in renewable energy
technologies
• Ability to model and cost renewable
energy projects.
• Awareness of political and business issues
relating to renewable energy
Assessment: 50% Examination, 50% Assignment
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Course Outline
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Motivations and Fundamentals
Energy Conversion Processes
Energy Usage
Generation Technologies
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Wind Power
Photovoltaics
Solar Thermal
Bioenergy
Ocean Energy
Hydro
• Storage and Transmission
• Planning, Costs and Economics
• Future Trends and Investment
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The Big Picture
• This generation is using the earth’s finite
resources much faster than they can be
regenerated
• It’s estimated that we burn in 1 year what it took
nature 15,000 years to make
• We are endangering the standard of living of
future generations
– Energy / Resources Poor
– Pollution (incl. climate change)
– Biodiversity (largest mass extinction of species in the
past 65 million years)
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Motivations that drive today’s
energy discussions
• Fossil fuels are a finite resource
– Cheap oil and gas will probably run out in our lifetime
– Needed for plastics and other essential materials
• We’re interested in security of energy supply
– Each nation / economic block needs security to
protect industry and essential services
– Have our fossil fuels peaked?
• It’s very likely that fossil fuels change the climate
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Peak Oil
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Peak oil is the point in time when the
maximum rate of global petroleum extraction
is reached, after which the rate of production
enters terminal decline.
Hubbert proposed that fossil fuel production
in a given region over time would follow a
roughly bell-shaped curve
"Hubbert's peak" can refer to the peaking of
production of a particular area, which has
now been observed for many fields and
regions.
Hubbert's Peak was achieved in the
continental US in the early 1970s. Oil
production peaked at 10.2 million barrels a
day. Since then, it has been in a gradual
decline.
Hubbert assumed that after fossil fuel
reserves (oil reserves, coal reserves, and
natural gas reserves) are discovered,
production at first increases approximately
exponentially, as more extraction
commences and more efficient facilities are
installed. At some point, a peak output is
reached, and production begins declining
until it approximates an exponential decline.
Production Lags Discovery
Please Read: Hubbert’s Petroleum Production Model: An Evaluation and Implications for World Oil Production Forecasts,
Alfred J. Cavallo, Natural Resources Research,Vol.
13,No. 4,Oct
December
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2009 2004
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hubbert_peak_theory#cite_note-cavallo-4
Who uses the world’s oil?
USA & Canada,
27%
Former USSR,
5%
Latin America
Japan
Africa
India, 3%
Europe, 19%
Rest of World
India
USA & Canada
Rest of World,
19%
China, 10%
AfricaJapan,
, 3% 5%
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Latin America,
9%
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Former USSR
Europe
China
Source: sustainability institute
Projected Price of Oil
Projected Price of Oil
Price per Barrel
250
200
150
Price
100
50
0
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
Year
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Source: sustainability institute
Conclusions of the Hirsch Report
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World oil peaking is going to happen - some forecasters predict within a decade,
others later.
Oil peaking could cost economies dearly - particularly that of the U.S.
Oil peaking presents a unique challenge - previous transitions were gradual and
evolutionary; oil peaking will be abrupt and revolutionary.
The real problem is liquid fuels for transportation - motor vehicles, aircraft, trains, and
ships have no ready alternative.
Mitigation efforts will require substantial time - an intense effort over decades.
Both supply and demand will require attention - higher efficiency can reduce demand,
but large amounts of substitute fuels must be produced.
It is a matter of risk management - early mitigation will be less damaging than
delayed mitigation.
Government intervention will be required - otherwise the economic and social
implications would be chaotic.
Economic upheaval is not inevitable - without mitigation, peaking will cause major
upheaval, but given enough lead-time, the problems are soluble.
More information is needed - effective action requires better understanding of a
number of issues.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_oil#cite_note-127
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http://www.netl.doe.gov/publications/others/pdf/Oil_Peaking_NETL.pdf
Security of Supply
• Over 90% of Ireland’s total primary energy requirements
are met by imported oil, coal, and gas.
• Slow rate of development of indigenous renewable
energy sources
• Does the ‘Balance Sheet’ add up?
– What is Ireland’s energy gap
– Are there enough renewables to cover our requirements
• What are the social and economic consequences of
– Substantially increased energy costs?
– Intermittent and Uncertain Supply?
http://www.energybulletin.net/node/13646
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http://www.ucc.ie/serg/pub/SOS-R2.pdf
How Much Electricity is Generated
in Ireland?
• Installed Capacity is about 4,700 MW
• Peak Demand over 4,000 MW
• Instantaneous Power varies between 1,200 MW
and 4,000 MW
• Electricity Generated per annum c. 22 TWh
(22,000 GWh)
Source: SEI 2003
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Ireland Electricity Generation
Contribution to
Fuel source
ESBCS electricity supply (2007)
Average contribution to Irish
supply (2007)
Coal
26%
18%
Gas
41%
55%
Oil
9%
6%
Peat
10%
6%
Renewable
9%
11%
CHP (Combined Heat & Power) *
5%
4%
Impact from ESBCS
Irish average
Environmental measure
CO2 emissions
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625g per kWh (kilowatt hour)
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538g per kWh
Renewables – primarilty wind and hydro
Ireland’s Electricity Generation
Infrastructure
ESB Power Stations - Thermal
Station
Capacity (MW)
Bellacorick
Shannonbridge
Lanesboro
Moneypoint
Great Island
Marina
Aghada
Poolbeg
Tarbert
North Wall
40
125
85
915
240
115
525
1,020
620
266
ESB Power Stations - Hydro
Fuel Type
Station
Peat
Peat
Peat
Coal
Oil
Gas
Gas
Gas/Oil
Oil
Gas/Oil
Ardnacrusha
Pollaphuca
Golden Falls
Leixlip
Carrigadrohid
Inniscarra
Cliff
Cathleen's Falls
Clady
Turlough Hill (pumped storage)
Capacity (MW)
86
30
4
4
8
19
20
45
4
292
Independent Power Producers
•Edenderry Power 120 MW
Peat
•Synergen
400 MW
Gas
•Huntstown
343 MW
Gas
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Source SEI 2003
Renewable
• Renewable energy is energy generated from
natural resources such as sunlight, wind, rain,
tides, and geothermal heat—which are
renewable (naturally replenished).
• Although by definition non-finite, renewables are
constrained by technology and infrastructure
capable of harvest
• While most renewable energy projects and
production is large-scale, renewable
technologies are also suited to small off-grid
applications in rural and remote areas, where
energy is often crucial in human development
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Renewable Energy Sources
• Direct Solar
– Solar Thermal
– Photovoltaics
• Indirect Solar
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Hydro Power
Wind Power
Wave Power
Bioenergy
• Non-Solar Renewables
– Tidal Energy
– Geothermal
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Economically Attractive
• Finding new energy sources is not difficult
– What is difficult is finding new sources of
economically attractive energy
• It is essential to be able to estimate the
cost of energy produced by different
methods
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Problems with Renewables
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Intermittency / Fluctuations
– (the wind doesn't always blow nor
the sun always shine) and that
this has not been adequately
factored into discussions of their
potential
– Requirement for significant
storage
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Social and Environmental Impact
– Food Capacity
– Land Usage
– Aesthetic
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Accessibility
Technology Maturity
Cost
Availability of transmission net
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Greater use of renewable energy
is seen as a key component of
any move to combat climate
change, and is being aggressively
promoted as such by the new U.S.
administration and by other
Without new storage technologies
that can overcome intermittency,
much of the decarbonization of the
economy will have to come from
nuclear, carbon capture and
storage (CCS) and energy
efficiency
New energy storage technologies
could greatly increase the role of
renewables, but none are
currently in sight
Little rigorous economic analysis
of renewable technologies
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Peaking
Generation
Mid-merit
generation
Baseload
Generation
System demand
Electricity Demand Profile
6am
midday
6pm
Time of Day
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midnight
Renewables Capacity in Ireland
Installed Capacity is about 4700 MW; Peak Demand over 4000 MW;
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Carbon & Climate Change
• Human fossil- fuel burning causes carbon
dioxide concentrations to rise
• Carbon dioxide is a greenhouse gas;
• Increasing the greenhouse effect increases average global temperatures (and
has many other effects).
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Carbon & Climate Change
Source: http://www.inference.phy.cam.ac.uk/withouthotair/c1/page_6.shtml
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Carbon & Climate Change
• The burning of fossil fuels sends about 7
gigatons of CO2 per year into the
atmosphere
• The biosphere and the oceans send about
440 gigatons and 330 gigatons of CO2 per
year into the atmosphere
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The Balance Sheet
• Consumption
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Transport
Heating and Cooling
Lighting
Information Systems
and Gadgets
– Food
– Manufacturing
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• Renewables
Production Capability
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Wind
Solar
Hydroelectric
Wave
Geothermal
Nuclear??
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Without hot air pg 22
The Energy Gap
• What is Irelands energy gap
• Can we live on renewables?
• Options for reducing consumption?
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Assignment
• As a class we are going to produce a
comprehensive study of renewable energy in
Ireland and attempt to put a roadmap to
sustainability in place
• Working individually or in teams, you will
produce a comprehensive report on an agreed
topic relating to power generation, storage,
management, utilization, distribution, financing
• Your report will be in the format of a book
chapter.
• You will be expected to pitch-out to the class on
your study later in the term
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Ideas?
• Solar Power Satellites
• utility-scale solar thermal power utilityscale solar thermal power
• Hydro Storage facilities
• Spirit of Ireland
• Cold Fusion
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