Transcript Slide 1

Anticipating climate-change induced biome
shifts for military installation
Dr. Jim Westervelt
Construction Engineering Research Lab
Engineer Research and Development Center
Dr. William Hargrove
Forest Service
January 2010
US Army Corps of Engineers
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Overall Challenge
 Military installation ecosystems support
► Military
training and testing
► Populations of important plant/animal species
► Examples of relatively pristine habitat
 Potential consequence of ecosystem shifts
► Training/testing
type, time, capacity
► Loss/gain of habitat
► Changes to installation natural resource management
plans
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Question
Ideal:
How and when will ecosystems shift in
response to climate change?
Two parts:
✔ Where can I currently find ecosystem driver
conditions that match forecasted driver
conditions?
How and when will current ecosystems shift in
response?
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Approach
Covered by Bill Hargrove’s talk
 Identify a set of ecosystem drivers
 Develop global maps of those drivers
► For
current and future conditions
 Conduct a cluster analysis
► To
group related areas
Covered in this talk
 Correlate clusters with current ecosystems
 Forecast future ecosystem conditions
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Ecosystem drivers
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Precipitation during the locally hottest quarter
CC-Based
Precipitation during the locally coldest quarter
Collected by
Chris Zganjar at
Precipitation during the locally driest quarter
TNC from
Precipitation during the locally wettest quarter
WORLDCLIM
(http://www.worldclim.org)
Ratio of precipitation to potential evapotranspiration
Temperature during the coldest locally quarter
Temperature during the hottest locally quarter
Sum of monthly Temp avg where Temp avg >= 5 deg C
Integer number of consecutive months where Temp avg >= 5 deg C
Available water holding capacity of soil
Constant
Bulk density of soil
Carbon content of soil
Nitrogen content of soil
Compound topographic index (relative wetness)
Solar interception
Day/night diurnal temperature difference
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Develop global maps of drivers
 Choose general circulation models (GCM)
► Hadley
and PCM (high and low)
 Choose climate scenarios
► A1
(higher CO2) and B1(lower CO2)
 Choose time
► Current,
2050, 2100 (based on 30-yr averages)
 Collect maps (for current and 8 futures)
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Scenarios
 A1 scenarios characterized by:
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Rapid economic growth.
A global population that reaches 9 billion in 2050 and then gradually
declines.
The quick spread of new and efficient technologies.
A convergent world.
 B1 scenarios are characterized by:
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Rapid economic growth as in A1
Rapid changes towards a service and information economy.
Population as in A1.
Reductions in material intensity and the introduction of clean and
resource efficient technologies.
An emphasis on global solutions to economic, social and
environmental stability.
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Cluster Analysis
 Convert all maps to
standard-deviation form
 Run cluster analysis
(30,000 clusters) Grouping all sets across the 9
worlds!!
Hargrove and Hoffman
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Results
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Correlation with GAP and TNC
Application of correlation to future
Sample look at Illinois
Results for all military installations
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Correlate Clusters with Ecosystems
 Choose ecosystem map
► GAP
• US
• 533 types
► TNC
• Global
• 814 types
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Correlate Clusters with Ecosystems
TNC
GAP
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PCM model – B1 scenario (low-low)
2000
TNC
GAP
2050
2100
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Hadley model – A1 scenario (high-high)
2000
TNC
GAP
2050
2100
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Illinois GAP – Current
Forest
Cultivated
Cropland
Pasture/Hay
Forest
Managed
Southern Tall
Grassland
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Illinois GAP – PCM A1 2050
Cultivated
Cropland
Pasture/Hay
Managed
Southern Tall
Grassland
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Illinois GAP – PCM A1 2100
No Analog
Cultivated
Cropland
No Analog
Pasture/Hay
Managed
Southern Tall
Grassland
No Analog
No Analog
Managed
Southern Tall
Grassland
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Illinois TNC – Current
Central
Tallgrass
Prairie
North
Central
Tillplain
Interior
Low
Plateau
Ozarks
Crosstimbers and
Southern
Tallgrass Prairie
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Illinois TNC – PCM A1 2050
Central
Tallgrass
Prairie
North
Central
Tillplain
Interior
Low
Plateau
Ozarks
Crosstimbers and
Southern
Tallgrass Prairie
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Illinois TNC – PCM A1 2100
No Analog
No Analog
Central
Tallgrass
Prairie
North
Central
Tillplain
Ozarks
No Analog
Interior
Low
Plateau
No Analog
No Analog
Crosstimbers and
Southern
Tallgrass Prairie
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East-Cent Ill – Similar – Current
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East-Cent Ill – HAD B1 2050
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East-Cent Ill – HAD B1 2100
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Results for Military Installations
 All Navy, Marines, Air Force, and Army
 Two Models
► Hadley
and PCM
 Two Scenarios
► A1
and B1
 Three times
► 2000,
2050, and 2080
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Sample GAP – Fort Knox
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Sample TNC – Fort Knox
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Sample Similar – Fort Knox
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Discussion
 We have a process for turning GCM/RCM
forecasts into potential future ecosystem
maps.
 We applied the process to the last round
of forecasts
 Ready to apply to the next round
 Massive ecosystem shifts?
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Next?
Two parts:
 Forecasted conditions currently support
what ecosystems? ✔
 How and when will current ecosystems
shift in response?
► Resilience
► Persistence
► Seed
distribution rates
► ??
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Some Ecological Sim Models
Striped Newt, Ft. Stewart
Feral Hogs, Fort Benning
 Quick
 Spatial
 Agent-based
Cedar
Infestation,
Nebraska
Fire Ants and Cave
Crickets, Ft Hood
Gopher Tortoise, Ft. Benning
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Questions??
 Sample Forest Service forecasts of
movement of optimal tree habitat:
 http://www.geobabble.org/~hnw/global/treeran
ges2/climate_change/index.html
 ERDC-CERL forecasts of ecosystem shifts
around military installations:
► http://earth.cecer.army.mil
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