Transcript Document

Climate Change in the
Pacific Northwest
and Elsewhere
George H. Taylor
January, 2012
The question everyone is asking:
What causes climate to
change?
Is it human causes?
Greenhouse gases
Land use change
Smoke, dust, aerosols
…and stuff.
Is it natural causes?
Sunlight variations
Ocean conditions
Volcanoes
…and stuff.
All else being equal, increasing
the greenhouse gases should
increase temperature.
The only questions are,
1. By how much?
2. How do we measure this?
“Alarmists”
Climate change is occurring far faster than
even the worst predictions of the UN's
Nobel Prize-winning scientific panel on
climate change foresaw, Al Gore warned.
New evidence shows "the climate crisis is
significantly worse and unfolding more
rapidly than those on the pessimistic side of
the IPCC projections had warned us."
“Alarmists”
“I believe it is appropriate to have an overrepresentation of factual presentations on
how dangerous it [anthropogenic global
warming] is, as a predicate for opening up
the audience to listen to what the solutions
are.” Al Gore
“Deniers”
"I think those people are in such a tiny, tiny
minority now with their point of view," Gore
continues. "They're almost like the ones who
still believe that the Moon landing was
staged in a movie lot in Arizona and those
who believe the world is flat."
Al Gore, 2008
Alarmists say:
Scientists are very certain that the Pacific
Northwest is warming and that since 1975
the warming is best explained by humancaused changes in greenhouse gases.
Oregon Strategy for Greenhouse Gas Reductions
Report to the Governor
The Governor’s Advisory Group on Global Warming
Deniers say:
Let’s see what history tells us.
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Oregon Statewide Temperatures, 19952010
Deniers say:
In Oregon, in the Northwest, in the US, the
warmest decade of the last 100 years
occurred in the 1930s. The temperature
change has had a pronounced cyclical nature
rather than a simple increase. Temperature
extremes (high and low) are becoming less
common in recent decades.
Alarmists say:
“Last month, a study released by the
University of Washington shows we’ve
already lost 20% of our snow pack over the
last 30 years.”
Gov. Christine Gregoire, 2009
Deniers say:
Let’s see what history tells us.
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Deniers say:
In Oregon, in the Northwest, snow pack shows a
cyclical behavior rather than a simple decrease.
There is no significant long-term decrease if
period-of-record data are used. The same is true
for North American and Northern Hemisphere
snow extent.
Alarmists say:
CO2 levels are a dominant factor in climate
change.
Deniers say:
Climate changes primarily because of the
influence of the oceans (esp. the Tropical
Pacific) and changes in sunlight.
The Tropical Pacific Connection
Alarmists say:
Sea level rise will accelerate
Deniers say:
Let’s see what history tells us.
Alarmists say:
Hurricanes are increasing in intensity.
Deniers say:
Let’s look at the data.
Alarmists say:
The Arctic and Antarctic are melting.
Deniers say:
Let’s see what history tells us.
Arctic surface air temperature anomalies
Temperatures did increase from 1970
to 2000 (Polyakov, et al, 2003)
…but in the 1930s it was warmer.
…and this matches PDO variations…
Antarctic temperatures are falling
and sea ice is increasing.
Antarctic Sea Ice Area Anomalies, 1978-2005,
from NSIDC (2006)
Antarctic temperatures show a slight cooling
over 30 years
Alarmists say:
Glaciers are melting.
Deniers say:
Let’s see what history tells us.
Deniers say:
At Glacier Park, over 80% of the melt
occurred between 1920 and 1940, before the
CO2 enhancement of WWII. The main
mode of variability appears to be the PDO.
Worldwide, many glaciers have shrunk, but
others are growing (e.g., Shasta, Argentina,
Alaska)
My Opinion on AGW:
1. Human activities DO affect climate, in a variety
of ways. Greenhouse gases are just one
parameter.
2. Natural variations affect climate. I believe that
they have been more significant influences on
climate because they do a much better job of
explaining observed variations.
3. Effects of future changes in CO2 are likely to
be modest and manageable.
4. Many aspects of climate remain poorly
understood.
The End
www.appliedclimate.net
appliedclimate.wordpress.com
Deniers say:
Actually, CO2 changes have always followed
temperature changes.
Indermühle et al. (GRL, vol. 27, p. 735, 2000), who find that CO2
lags behind the temperature by 1200±700 years.
Fischer et al. (Science, vol 283, p. 1712, 1999) reported a time lag
600±400 yr during early de-glacial changes in the last 3 glacial–
interglacial transitions.
Siegenthaler et al. (Science, vol. 310, p. 1313, 2005) find a best lag
of 1900 years in the Antarctic data.
Monnin et al. (Science vol 291, 112, 2001) find that the start of the
CO2 increase in the beginning of the last interglacial lagged the
start of the temperature increase by 800 years.