Transcript Debating Environment/Environment Philosophy

Debating
Environment/Environment
Philosophy
2012 GMU PATRIOT DEBATE INSTITTUTE
YOUNG 
Environmental Issues
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Climate Change
Biodiversity
Marine Biodiversity
Rainforest
Deforestation
Ozone Layer
Global Warming
 Rise in global temperature near Earth’s surface.
 Difference between climate change--significant
change in the measures of climate lasting for an
extended period of time—precipitation, wind
patterns, etc.
 Ways in which global warming affects human lives—
TRANSPORTATION!!
AGW
 Anthropogenic global warming—”Anthropogenic”
means human inducted warming
 Joseph Fourier 1820s—Greenhouse Gas Effects—
Radiation from the sun—deflected back, but
captured by the GHG.
 CO2 level has been increasing since the Industrial
Revolution
 CO2 Level Increase =/= directly correlated with
warming.
NO AGW
 Cyclical—empirical records (geological) shows that
warming occurred before the CO2 level increased.
 Other factors—rotation of the Earth (Milankovitch
Cycle)/Water vapor/other weather events NOT caused by
human actions—solar varability
 New forecasts of global climate that contradicts the AGW
theory.
 Oil lobbies—distortion of climate data.
 Scientific consensus usually flips aff on this question—
What do you do?
Author Indicts
 Reluctance—refutation is at stake!
 False projection/forecasting method—scientific evidence
not VALIDATED!
 A2: Consensus—incorrect tally of scientific opinions.
 IPCC—Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change—
created under the UN World Meteorological
Organization—speculation/failed review
process/Political/130 subscribing countries.
 NOAA—false data collecting methods.
 Government-sponsored research—for pro-AGW groups.
Positive Feedback
 Feedback: 1.2-1.3 Celsius increase—only accounts for direct
increase of CO2—changes in the climate system that
follows.
 Internal links take out/turns—about theories of climate
system.
 Ice-Albedo effect: ice and snow melt near the poles—
replaces white snow with dark earth—cannot reflect
sunrays—leads to more warming (works in reverse).
 Water vapor: warmer air can hold more water vapor—
enhanced effects. (feedback, not a forcing!)
Negative Feedback
 Clouds—water vapor results in CLOUDS, doesn’t
cause ghg effects.
 “Adaptive Iris”—increased surface temperature lead
to decreased cirrus cloud formation, resulting in
“leakage”
 Maybe in the wrong side of the debate—more
evidence that supports positive feedback loop.
Warming is BAD
 One of the biggest impacts—along with heg, economy, and
trade
 Outweighs the aff/turns the case.
 Conflicts/Nuclear war (Jurgen Scheffran)—through state
failure/destabilization/failed states/insecurity/environmental
degradation
 Artic conflicts—melting cycle—new energy competition—China,
Canada, Russia, etc…
 Middle East/Africa Conflicts: resource
competitions/governance—political radicalization.
 Hegemony—climate-changed induced weather events will wipe
out our military installation (SOUTHCOM—Panama Canal)
Warming is still BAD
 Other environmental effects—
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Deforestation—hot air results in dry soil—affects the forest.
Coral Reefs—coral bleaching—release of symbiotic algae.
Water resources—floods and droughts/lack of sanitation.
Biodiversity—species extinction.
Ocean Acidification—carbonic acid formation that increases
the acidity of ocean—kills many marine organisms who can’t
adjust to the acidity—(marine calcifier—can’t calsify without
carbonate ions.
Warming Bad—Impact Calculus
 Risk Calculus
 Probability—scientific consensus/research—objectively
disputed
 Nuclear war doesn’t cause extinction
 Warming outweighs—only requires inaction/can be
reversed.
Warming is GOOD!
 ICE AGE
 High CO2 level prevents coming of the New Ice age
 Glaciation/Glacial Periods—an interval of time within an
ice age marked by cold temperature
 We’re currently in INTERGLCIAL (Holocene epoch)—
warmer periods between glaciation.
 Little Ice Age during 1550-1850—the baltic sea/caspian
froze/harvests were wiped out—killing villages and
human life.
Ice Age
 Uniqueness
 Ice Age is coming NOW!
 Solar Cycle peak in 2022 is one of the weakest—NASA
concluded—very big change of possibility of significant
cooling (sets up for a good timeframe argument)
 Various temperature reading/climatic records—shows the
warming is rather slowing, and cooling is likely to set.
 Also a defense to the aff’s uniqueness claim—warming is
not happening now—only a risk of cooling.
Ice Age
 Links
 Fossil Fuel Consumption/CO2 levels—extends the
interglacial periods
 Double-Bind—either you solve warming quickly and
sufficiently—proves the link to the DA, or you don’t
solve the case.
 Inevitability—cooling is a cycle, but CO2 could delay the
onset of ice age.
Ice Age
 Impacts/Overview
 Pretty much accesses their warming bad impacts—the
impact calculus is important.
 Timeframe—global cooling is faster climate change
pattern.
 Magnitude—more people die under cooling—evidence
calculating the effects on civilizations.
 Adoptability—warming has been expected, cooling
hasn’t been—even if the transition is slow, the initial
stage would make life hard to sustain.
Ice Age
 Answers to popular affirmative arguments—
 Link turn—Warming causes ice age
 Thermohaline Circulation
 Only partial cooling in the North Atlantic—the negative
internal link is GLOBAL cooling—means our link outweighs.
 Also takes out the warming advantage– warming causes
cooling…..it offsets the warming impact.
 Goldilock/Equilibrium—ENOUGH CO2 Now
 Aff claims to remove all warming—1ac should provide
sufficient links
 Also means case doesn’t solve