Transcript Carbon Trust - BASIC

Workshop on BASIC
Beijing, 18 February 2006
Integration of Climate Mitigation into
National policies
A Framework for Analysis of
China’s sustainable development
policies
Xiangyang WU
Research Centre for Sustainable Development (RCSD)
Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS)
Outline
Introduction
The relevance of SD policies to CC
mitigation
Understanding the impact: a framework
for analysis
SD policies to CC mitigation
Case study: energy saving policies
Conclusions and suggestions
Introduction
 China has no climate change policies, but has
sustainable development policies and measures relevant
to CC.
 As China’s national strategy, sustainable development
has been taken as the primary objective for policy
making
 China has been contributing to climate mitigation
through improving energy efficiency, developing
renewable energy, afforestation, family planning,
poverty alleviation, etc.
Policy areas: implications for
CC mitigation
Social
policies
Economy
policies
SD
Policies
Environmental
policies
SD Policies
Policies
Relevant to CC
Non-CC
policies
Climate
Policies
The relevance of policies to CC
mitigation
 Criteria: positive /negative impact on GHG
emissions？
 Measurement: cost-effectiveness of reductions
and potentials for mitigation
 CC mitigation: a co-benefit from SD policies
 Inadequate information for measurement
Framework of Policy Evaluation
 Orientation of SD policies
 Its primary objective
 Its coverage? national, sectoral, or local?
 Its mechanism for implementation: incentive,
compulsory, voluntary, guidance?
 Implementation: cost and its effect
 Implication to GHG emissions, ↑，↓ ?
 Prospects for integration
Major SD Policies with direct
relevance to CC mitigation
Environmental/ecol
ogical policies
Energy policies
Energy industry
institutional reform Climate Change
Air pollution
control
Forest
Optimizing
energy structure
Energy saving
Social policies
Family Planning
Poverty Alleviation
China’s energy policies (1)
 Institutional reform in energy industry: market
liberalization ↑
 Price controlled by government  dual price system
(government + market)  market price
 Examples
• Coal sector: 1987, govt price and market price;
2002, market price only.
• Power sector: 2002, institutional reform against
monopoly, divided into generation enterprises
and power grid enterprises. Separated govt.
function and enterprises.
China’s energy policies (2)
 Policies in optimizing energy structure: cleaner
↓
 Renewable energy: (a) plan: the development plan of
new and renewable energy(1995), the 10th Five-year
plan of … and 2000-2015 plan of … (b) the
Renewable Energy Law(2005).
 Shut down small thermal power units. Encourage
CHP
 Use new- and advanced-technology in thermal
power plants
Renewable achievement
 Small hydro:
 By 2004，solar PV cell:60MW,
solar heater: 65million m2,a
share of 40% in the world.
800
installed capacity (MW)
 Wind power:
700
760
Wind power
600
500
375
400
300
200
100
30
0
1994
2000
2004
 Bio-methane in Rural areas:
 1994: renewable energy 10.26
Mtce. 2000: 33.57Mtce.
35000
installed capacity (MW)
11 million digesters, 5.5 billion
m3 per year。
30000
Small hydro
25000
32600
26760
20529
20000
15000
9520
10000
5000
0
150
1060
1959
1979
1985
1998
2002
2003
 Energy saving policies: reduce ↓(case study)
Major SD Policies with direct
relevance to CC mitigation
Environmental /
Ecological policies
Energy policies
Energy industry
institutional reform Climate Change
Air pollution
control
Forest
Optimizing
energy structure
Energy saving
Social policies
Family Planning
Poverty Alleviation
Environmental / ecological
policies (1)
 Air pollution control ↓
 Polluter pays: introduced in 1982
 Emission permit system (1994)
 Plan of Total Emission Control (1996)
 SO2 pollutions control zone & acidity control zone
(1998)
 Air Pollution Prevent and Control Law (2000):
 the pilot program of SO2 Emission Trading (2002)
 10th Five-year Plan: 2005 SO2 emission reduce
20% on 2000. HOWEVER,
Mt
24.0
20.0
16.0
12.0
8.0
4.0
0.0
22.5
21.6
20.9
18.6 20.0 19.5 19.3 17.9 18.9
15.9 14.6 16.1 15.7 15.6
Industry SO2 emission
Total SO2 emission
5.0
1998
Why?
4.0
1999
household SO2 emission
3.8
2000
3.8
2001
3.6
2002
3.7
2003
3.6
2004 年
Environmental / ecological
policies (2)
 Forestry ↓
 The Forest Law (1979, revised in 1998)
 barren land and mountainous areas: long term lease
for private investment allowed
 Land use change: sloping farmland to forest
(starting from 2000, in 17 provinces)
 No disturbance for natural re-generation policy:
30.2 m ha
 Tree planting: by 2000，46.67m ha
Major SD Policies with direct
relevance to CC mitigation
Environmental /
Ecological policies
Energy policies
Energy industry
institutional reform
Air pollution
control
Climate Change
Forest
Optimizing
energy structure
Energy saving
Social policies
Family Planning
Poverty Alleviation
Social policies
 Poverty alleviation policies：combined with rural
energy development and ecological protection ↓
 1985-2000, 3 rounds of the programs for building rural
preliminary electrification counties through small hydro
development.
 Alleviation poverty through giving science and technology,
education to …
2500 million  2.9 million
 Family planning policy ↓
 Family planning: 1970s, “late, wide interval, less“，
1980s, ”only one ”.
 prediction: the peak will be 1.465 billion in 2030, will not
exceed 1.5 billion. Avoidance of births: 300 million.
Case study: energy saving
policies evaluation
 primary objective: reduce energy consumption,
improve energy efficiency
 CC implication: mitigation
 Policies introduced:
 Energy Saving Law (1997)
 management rules for main energy-consume
enterprises (1999)
 energy saving product certificate
Incentives
 Grants and subsidies: Direct investment and low interest loans.
 key energy saving projects
 Energy technologies R&D, demonstration and deployment
 Energy related funds: set up by government, local authorities and




power companies
State owned investment company: CECIC sep up by government
in 1998
ESCo: since 1997, 60 ESCo has established to implement over 500
projects, invest 1.4 billion and achieve 1.75 Mtce energy saving.
Deposit refund: to encourage deployment of energy saving
construction materials
Energy saving products list: encourage its deployment by
governmental procurement
Ambitious Targets in the 11th
Five-year Plan (2006-2010)
 National goals: to reduce energy intensity 20%, to
control GHGs emissions
 “Energy Conservation Plan” :
 specific targets: set up for main energy intensive products,
energy consuming equipment and energy management
 3 Priority areas : industry, transport, buildings of business
and residents
 10 Key energy saving projects
 10 Supportive policies and measures, emphasizing necessity to
introduce market-based incentives and new initiatives and
enhancing energy management to large energy user
Achievement: Energy Intensity
decreased
3.5
3.0
2.89
2.79
2.57
2.5
2.0
2.4
Equivalent to 700 Mtce of Energy
saving, 1050 Mt SO2 and 440 MtC
emissions reduction
2.26 2.18
2.11
1.92
1.71
1.6
1.5
1.51 1.47 1.45 1.5 1.58
1.0
0.5
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
0.0
GDP is Calculated with comparable price in 2000;
?
Problems on energy saving
policies
 Weak implementation: rules were not obeyed
strictly.
 Insufficient incentives
 energy saving policies were not harmonized.
Conclusions and suggestions
 China’s SD policies (energy, environmental /
ecological and social policies) lead to positive
contribution to CC mitigation
 Policy-coordination is necessary to address CC
 Integrating CC into SD framework
Next step
 Typical cases with cost and benefit analysis on
several key policies
 Policy making cost, implemental cost, supervising
cost, etc.
 Benefit: refer mostly to GHG emission,
environmental, ecological and social aspects.
 Comparative analysis among different policies
 How to highlight CC initiatives in SD
framework