Transcript Integrating Climate Change Concern into Sustainable Development

International Workshop on Climate
Change and Sustainable Development
7-8 April, 2006, New Delhi, India
Integrating Climate Change Concern into
Sustainable Development StrategyA Case Study of China
Ying Chen
Research Centre for Sustainable Development (RCSD)
Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS)
Outline
 Climate change and it impacts in China
 Energy, mitigation and sustainable
development in China
 Challenges
 New goals
 Policies & measures
 Effectiveness & potentials
Climate is Changing and
Impacts are unevenly felt.
Changes of annual average
temperature in China (1951-2001)
Changes of annual rainfall in China
(1956-2002)
Adverse impacts of climate change on
natural and human systems
 Land degradation
 Biodiversity losses
 Increase of weather-related disasters,
particularly floods and droughts
 Decreased water availability
 Reduction in potential crop yields
 Coastal zones and marine systems
 Increase in the risks for human settlements
and human health
 Increased energy demand for space cooling
Economic losses resulted from
weather-related disasters (1949-2004)
250
(billion RMB)
Economic losses
300
200
150
100
50
Wuzhou,Guangxi, 2 July 2005
Nanning airport, Guangxi,
2001
Flood, August 1999
Heilongjiang, 11 June 2005
Houses collapsing in flood
Aug. 1999
Drought in
Hainan province
Water pollution in
Yellow River
Access to safety
drinking water
Typhoon, July 2005, in
Zhejiang province
Summer of 2005, in Nanjing,
Jiangsu province
Building adaptive capacity
 These impacts are results of both climatic and nonclimatic factors, which are generally difficult to
quantify.
 Assessment methodology and tools have to be
improved to get a better understanding.
 Adaptation is a necessary strategy at all level.
 There is an urgent need for developing countries to
build adaptive capacity.
 Some autonomous adaptation measures have been
demonstrated effective.
 More efforts and necessary resources needed to
build adaptive .
Energy, Mitigation and
Sustainable Development
Great Challenges
 China is in a accelerated process of industrialization and
urbanization, shifting from labour-intensive to capital intensive
phases.
 The energy demand has surged since 2002 when a new round of
investment-driven economic growth began.
 The energy mix dominated by coal could not be shifted.
 Although currently the energy consumption and emission per
capita are lower than world average level, China will loss the
advantages soon.
 With increase of oil imported (40% in 2004), energy security
concern is growing.
 Air pollution and acid rain are still sever environmental problems.
Energy intensity (tce/10000yuan) has decreased
by 45% within 1990-2004 but increased since 2002
3.5
3.0
2.89 2.79
2.57
2.5
2.0
2.4
Equivalent to 700 Mtce of Energy
saving, 1050 tons SO2 and 440 MtC
emissions reduction
2.26 2.18
2.11
1.92
1.71
1.5
1.6
1.51 1.47 1.45
1.5
1.58
1.0
0.5
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
0.0
GDP is Calculated with comparable price in 2000;
Increases of energy consumption, emissions,
population and GDP (1990-2003)
World
China
EU15
Japan
Other Asian
countries
US
Africa
PE（PJ)
82963
22167
(1/4)
8435
3005
19430
14786
6848
GHGs
emissions
4247.6
1463.4
(1/3)
196.1
188.6
1063.1
886.8
215.2
Population
growth
(million)
1022.3
153.2
(1/7)
16.8
4.1
414.2
40.9
225.3
GDP
(b$2000)
9523.5
962.5
(1/10)
1816.9
768.3
791.5
3275.0
195.5
(MtCO2)
Distribution of Acid rain areas
Failed to achieve the goal of 20%
reduction by 2005 blow the level of 2000,
set up by the Tenth Five-year Plan
Well known recipes




Conservation
Renewables
Fuel switching
Deployment and transfer of existing
technologies
 Development of new technologies
Energy Intensity of Selected EnergyIntensive Products (1990-2004)
Unit
1990
2004
Reduced
(%)
Coal burned for power
generation
g/kwh
427
376
11.9
Comparable energy
consumption of Steel
kgce/t
997
702
29.6
Comparable energy
consumption of cement
kgce/t
201
157
21.9
Comprehensive energy
consumption of Ethene
kgce/t
1580
1004
36.5
Comprehensive energy
consumption of ammonia
synthesis (large scale)
kgce/t
1343
1184
11.8
National mid to long-term energy
conservation plan (issued in Nov. 2004)
 To reduce energy intensity from 2.68 tce in
2002(1990 price) to 2.25 tce/10000 yuan by 2010,
energy saving rate 2.2% per year, and further to 1.54
tce/10000 yuan by 2020, energy saving rate 3% per
year;
 Specific energy saving targets for
• main energy intensive products
• main energy-consuming equipment
• Energy management system
 Priority sectors
• Industry, transport, buildings for commercial and
residential use
Selected Key Energy Saving Projects
Oil saving and
alternatives
These projects will
produce 240 Mtce energy
savings potentials.
Green Lighting
CHP
Waste heat
recycling
Government
energy saving
Monitoring and
technical service
The 11th Five-year Plan
(2006-2010)
 Plan to reduce energy intensity 20% below
2005 level by 2010;
 Controlling CO2 emissions is for the first time
specified as one of the tasks for the country
over the next 5 years.
Top 1000 Program
 To monitor and guide 1010 large energy users selected from 9
sectors for energy efficiency improvement
 in 2004, each of them consumed over 0.18 Mtce and consumed
670 Mtce in total, 48% of industrial and 34% of the primary energy
consumption in China.
 Series PAMs are under considerations including providing
economic incentives
22 25
97
iron and steel
262
non-ferrous metal
coal
power
petro.and petrochem.
240
75
chemicals
construction materials
58
101
128
texitile
paper
Renewables development and
nuclear power

Law of Renewable Energy issued in Jan. 2005

Plan to increase the share of renewables in energy mix from the
current 7% to 10% by 2010 and to 15% by 2020.

Nuclear power is also an option, expected to reach 4% of
electricity generation by 2025.
Over 60,000 small scale
hydropower stations in
rural area
26 windfarms, 375MWe
in 2000
Eco-building design
and demonstration
A nation wide comprehensive campaign:
building a resource-efficient and
environment-friendly society
 Multi-stakeholders Participation

Government, taking a leading role

Industry: great potentials to be achieved

NGOs: initiating projects advocating conservation

Individuals: taking actions in daily life and
exchanging experiences

The media: raising public awareness
NGOs: 26℃ Energy Saving
Action for Air Conditioner
3R- Reduction, Reuse and Recycling
One-off
consumables
in hotel
waste Food
over-packed moon cake
Clean Development Fund (CDF)-the
first carbon-driven fund in China
 Sources: charges on CERs from CDM projects,
particularly HFC-23 projects 65% to be charged;
 Objectives: helping national wide actions to
address climate change including,
 research and training for capacity building
 Mitigation & Adaptation
 Facilitating preparation of CDM project;
A long way to go…
 International cooperation is of great importance
to integrate climate change concerns into
sustainable development strategy
 Capital assistance
 Technology transfer and cooperation
 Institutional capacity building, including policy
instruments, perception, etc.
Implications of irreversibility of large
investment and infrastructure construction